Bills vs. Patriots: Week 16 NFL Betting Preview – December 28, 2020

Posted By Staff on December 22, 2020

The Buffalo Bills (11-3) are favored by  as they battle to keep their four-game winning streak intact in a matchup with the New England Patriots (6-8) on Monday, December 28, at Gillette Stadium. The contest’s point total is set at .

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of December 22, 2020, 1:41 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bills vs Patriots Betting Odds

Bills vs Patriots Props

Looking to bet on props for this game? Use our prop search tool to find the best odds across legal sportsbooks in the US.

Betting the Total (Over/Under)

  • Games involving the Patriots this year have averaged 42.1 points per game, a 3.4-point differential when compared to the over/under for this contest.
  • Bills games have gone over 45.5 points on eight occasions this season (57.1% of matchups).
  • New England’s contests have gone over 45.5 points on four occasions (28.6% of games).
  • The total for this matchup is 45.5 points, 4.2 fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams.
  • The Bills score the fifth-most points in the NFL this season, while the Patriots’ offense racks up the 27th-most.
  • These two teams combine to allow 45.8 points per game, which is 0.3 greater than the total for this matchup.
  • Buffalo is the league’s 16th-ranked scoring defense while New England is the seventh-ranked.
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Bills Betting Insights

  • Buffalo has put together a 9-5 record against the spread this season.
  • The Bills have a split ATS record of 1-1 when favored by at least 6.5 points.
  • Buffalo’s games have hit the over in 10 out of 14 opportunities this season (71.4%).

Patriots Betting Insights

  • New England has put together a losing 6-8 record against the spread this season.
  • The Patriots have a split ATS record of 2-2 when an underdog by at least 6.5 points.
  • Most of New England’s games this year — 10 out of 14 — have failed to go over the point total (71.4%).

Bills vs Patriots: Head to Head

Bills vs Patriots: Last 3 Meetings
Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
11/1/2020 Bills Bills -4.00 41.00 -200 +175 349-339 NE 24-21 BUF
12/21/2019 Patriots Patriots -7 39 -335 +290 414-268 NE 24-17 NE
9/29/2019 Patriots Bills -7 41.5 -315 +275 375-224 BUF 16-10 NE

Check out TheLines YouTube channel to learn more about betting tips and picks for this week’s NFL action.

When the Bills Have the Ball

  • The Bills have put an average of 29.1 points per game on the scoreboard this season, 7.6 more than the 21.5 the Patriots have surrendered in each contest.
  • When they meet or outpace their scoring average this season, Buffalo is 6-1 and 6-1 against the spread.
  • When the New England defense allows 21.5 points or fewer this year, the Patriots have put together a 5-1 overall record and a 5-1 record against the spread.
  • The Bills hold a 41.3-yard advantage in total yards gained versus total yards allowed compared to the Patriots defense this season (386.7 to 345.4). The Bills average 6 yards per play while the Patriots give up 5.7 per play.
  • When the Buffalo offense puts together a game with at least their 2020 average in yardage, they are 6-0 overall and 4-2 against the spread this season.
  • When New England allows fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average, they are 4-4 against the spread and 4-4 overall this season.
  • The Patriots have allowed opposing rushing attacks to average 133 yards per game, compared to the 108.1 yards the Bills offense has averaged on the ground.
  • In games where the Buffalo rushing attack puts together at least their season average, the Bills are 5-0 overall and 2-3 against the spread.
  • When New England limits opposing teams to 133 rushing yards or fewer this year, they are 4-3 against the spread and 5-2 overall.
  • The Bills have turned the ball over 1.4 times per game this season, while the Patriots have also averaged 1.4 takeaways per contest.
  • In games where they turn the football over 1.4 times or fewer this season, Buffalo is 7-1 overall and 4-4 against the spread.
  • New England is 3-2 against the spread and 3-2 overall this season when they force at least 1.4 turnovers in a game.

When the Patriots Have the Ball

  • The Patriots put up 3.7 fewer points per game (20.6) than the Bills give up (24.3).
  • New England is 5-2 against the spread and 5-2 overall a season ago when the team scores at least 20.6 points.
  • Buffalo has a 6-1 record against the spread and a 6-1 record overall in games when it surrenders 29.1 points or less.
  • The Patriots collect 25.2 fewer yards per game (330.8), than the Bills give up per matchup (356). On average, the Patriots gain 5.3 yards per play, while the Bills allow 5.6 per play.
  • Buffalo has a 3-3 record ATS and a 5-1 record overall when holding its opponents to 356 yards or less.
  • This season, the Patriots rack up 145.4 yards per game on the ground, 24.1 more per game than the Bills allow per outing (121.3).
  • New England has a 5-2 ATS record and a 5-2 overall record when the team runs for at least 145.4 yards.
  • This season, Buffalo is 6-2 against the spread and 8-0 overall when holding opponents to no more than 121.3 yards on the ground.
  • This year, the Patriots turn the ball over 1.4 times per game, 0.2 fewer turnovers per game than the 1.6 the Bills force on average.
  • New England is 5-5 against the spread and 5-5 overall when it turns the ball over 1.4 or fewer times.
  • When it forces 1.6 or more turnovers, Buffalo has a 7-1 record against the spread and a 7-1 record overall.

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Bills Players to Watch

  • Josh Allen has thrown for 4,002 yards while completing 68.7% of his passes (351-of-511), with 30 touchdowns and nine interceptions (285.9 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 96 times for 382 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 27.3 yards per game.
  • Devin Singletary has taken 143 attempts for a team-leading 643 rushing yards (45.9 yards per game) while scoring two touchdowns. He’s also caught 35 passes for 247 yards (17.6 receiving yards per game).
  • Zack Moss has 416 yards on 97 carries (37.8 ypg), with three rushing touchdowns over the course of 11 games.
  • Stefon Diggs has reeled in 111 passes to lead the team with 1,314 yards while scoring five touchdowns. He has been targeted 149 times and averages 93.9 yards per game.
  • Cole Beasley has also chipped in with 950 yards on 79 catches with four touchdowns. He has been targeted 102 times and averages 67.9 receiving yards per game.
  • This year, Gabriel Davis has caught 30 passes on 52 targets for 459 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 32.8 receiving yards per game.
  • Mario Addison has five sacks to lead the team, and has also collected seven TFL and 25 tackles.
  • Jordan Poyer has racked up 113 tackles, four TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions this season.
  • Tre’Davious White has picked off three passes to lead the team while adding 57 tackles, two TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 11 passes defended.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • This year, Cam Newton has put up 2,381 passing yards (170.1 yards per game) while going 216-for-328 (65.9% completion percentage) and throwing five touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has tacked on 489 rushing yards on 122 carries with 11 touchdowns, averaging 34.9 yards per game.
  • Sony Michel leads the team with 304 rushing yards on 53 carries (33.8 yards per game), with one touchdown on the ground over the course of nine games.
  • This season, Jakobi Meyers has 49 catches (on 68 targets) to lead the team with 616 yards (51.3 per game) in 12 games.
  • Damiere Byrd’s statline this year shows 45 catches for 590 yards and one touchdown. He puts up 42.1 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 70 times.
  • James White has caught 42 passes on 52 targets for 321 yards, averaging 26.8 yards per game in 12 contests.
  • Chase Winovich has notched a team-leading 3.5 sacks, while adding four TFL, 37 tackles, and one interception.
  • Adrian Phillips has totaled 99 tackles, seven TFL, one sack, and two interceptions so far this season.

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