Bills vs. Patriots: NFL Betting Preview – November 1, 2020

Posted By Staff on October 29, 2020 - Last Updated on October 30, 2020

The 2-4 New England Patriots take a three-game losing streak into a matchup against the 5-2 Buffalo Bills on Sunday, November 1. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in the contest. The point total is set at 44 for the outing.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 30. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Information

Total Facts

  • Buffalo and its opponents have combined to score more than 44 in five games.
  • In two games this season, the Patriots have combined with their opponents to go over 44 points.
  • The total for this matchup is 0.1 points fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams (44.1).
  • These two teams allow a combined 49.2 points per game– 5.2 higher than the total for this matchup.
  • The points total average for Bills games this season is 50.3– 6.3 points higher than the over/under for this matchup.
  • Games involving the Patriots this year have averaged 43 points per game– a one-point differential when compared to the over/under for this contest.
  • The Patriots are the league’s 29th-highest scoring team this season compared to the 20th-ranked Bills.
  • Buffalo is the league’s 15th-ranked scoring defense while New England is the 12th-ranked.
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Bills Betting Insights

  • Buffalo has put together a 3-4 record against the spread this season.
  • The Bills have a split ATS record of 2-2 when favored by at least 3.5 points.
  • Five of Buffalo’s seven games this year have hit the over.

Patriots Betting Insights

  • Four of New England’s six games this year have failed to go over the point total.
  • New England has put together a 2-4 record against the spread this season.
  • The Patriots are 2-1 ATS when an underdog by at least 3.5 points.

Bills vs Patriots: Head to Head

Bills vs Patriots: Last 2 Meetings
Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
12/21/2019 Patriots Patriots -7 39 -335 +290 414-268 NE 24-17 NE
9/29/2019 Patriots Bills -7 41.5 -315 +275 375-224 BUF 16-10 NE

When the Bills Have the Ball

  • The Bills average points scored this season (24.9) and the Patriots points allowed (23.8) are within 1.1 points of each other.
  • In games where Buffalo score at least 24.9 points this season, they are 4-0 overall and 3-1 against the spread.
  • When the New England defense allows 23.8 points or fewer this year, the Patriots have accumulated a 2-1 overall record and a 2-1 record against the spread.
  • The Patriots defense has given up an average of 360.3 yards per game this season– 16.4 yards fewer than the 376.7 the Bills offense has averaged.
  • The Bills pick up 5.9 yards per play while the Patriots allow 6.1 per play.
  • In contests where the Buffalo offense totals at least their average yard output this season, they are 1-2 against the spread and 3-0 overall.
  • When New England allows fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average, they are 1-2 against the spread and 1-2 overall this season.
  • The Patriots defense has given up an average of 132.2 yards per game to opposing running games this season. That is 35.5 more yards than the Bills have gained running the football in 2020 (96.7).
  • When Buffalo rushes for at least 96.7 yards this season, they are 4-0 overall and 2-2 against the spread.
  • This season, when the New England defense allows opponents to pick up less than 132.2 yards on the ground, they are 2-1 against the spread and 2-1 overall.
  • This season, the Patriots have forced an average of two turnovers per game, compared to the 1.4 times Bills have turned the football over in each contest.
  • When Buffalo turns the football over 1.4 times or fewer this season, they are 3-1 overall and 1-3 against the spread.
  • New England is 2-2 against the spread and 2-2 overall this season when they force at least two turnovers in a game.

When the Patriots Have the Ball

  • The Patriots score 19.2 points per game– 6.2 fewer than the Bills give up per outing (25.4).
  • When New England records at least 19.2 points, it is 2-1 against the spread and 2-1 overall.
  • This season, Buffalo has a 3-1 record against the spread and a 4-0 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 24.9 or fewer points.
  • The Patriots average 7.1 fewer yards per game (352.2), than the Bills allow per outing (359.3). The Patriots average 5.6 yards per play, while the Bills give up 5.6 per play.
  • In games Buffalo holds its opponents to 359.3 or fewer yards, it has a 1-2 record ATS and a 2-1 record overall.
  • This season, the Patriots rack up 155 rushing yards per game, 28.3 more per game than the Bills allow per outing (126.7).
  • New England has a 2-1 ATS record and a 2-1 overall record when the team rushes for at least 155 yards.
  • Buffalo is 2-2 against the spread and 4-0 overall when holding opponents to 126.7 rushing yards or less.
  • This year, the Patriots turn the ball over 2.3 times per game– one more turnover per game than the 1.3 the Bills force on average.
  • New England is 2-1 against the spread and 2-1 overall when it turns the ball over 2.3 or fewer times.
  • This season, Buffalo has a 3-1 record against the spread and a 4-0 record overall when it forces at least 1.3 turnovers.

Bills Players to Watch

  • Josh Allen has thrown for 2,020 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes (288.6 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 48 times for 203 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 29 yards per game.
  • Devin Singletary has ran for a team-leading 298 yards on 79 attempts (42.6 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown in seven games. He also averages 21.9 receiving yards per game, grabbing 20 passes for 153 yards.
  • In his first season with Buffalo, Stefon Diggs has 48 catches (70 targets) to lead the team with 603 yards (86.1 per game) with three touchdowns.
  • Cole Beasley has added 470 yards on 39 catches and two touchdowns. He has been targeted 49 times and puts up 67.1 receiving yards per game.
  • This season, rookie Gabriel Davis has caught 15 passes on 21 targets for 205 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 29.3 receiving yards per game.
  • Mario Addison has three sacks, four TFL, and 15 tackles over seven games.
  • Jordan Poyer has totaled 56 tackles, four TFL, and two sacks this year.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • In his first season with the Patriots, Cam Newton has thrown for 969 yards, two touchdowns, and seven interceptions while completing 67.2% of his passes (161.5 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 50 times for 244 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 40.7 yards per game.
  • Damien Harris has 177 rushing yards on 33 carries (59 yards per game) in three games.
  • This season, Julian Edelman has 21 catches (39 targets) for 315 yards (52.5 per game).
  • Damiere Byrd has added 18 catches for 233 yards, averaging 38.8 receiving yards per game.
  • N’Keal Harry has collected 172 yards on 19 passes with one touchdown, averaging 28.7 yards per game on 32 targets.
  • Chase Winovich has 2.5 sacks, three TFL, and 16 tackles over six games.
  • This season, Adrian Phillips has totaled 41 tackles, four TFL, and one interception.

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