Monday Night Football Props: Diggs, Kincaid Over, Cook Under

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on September 10, 2023

NFL Week 1 ends with a bang. It’s Aaron Rodgers’ first game with the Jets, as New York hosts the Buffalo Bills. Monday Night Football odds make the Bills a small favorite with Josh Allen and Buffalo looking to bounce back from a bad loss in the playoffs last year. Meanwhile, the Jets are trying to reach the postseason for the first time since Mark Sanchez was quarterback. Make sure to look at the best sports betting sites and the best sports betting promo codes before betting on Monday Night Football props. Making use of the best lines, and the best promotions are key to increasing your chances of long-term profitability.

Monday Night Football Player Props

Play in our free MNF betting contests and win prizes!

Monday Night Football Prop Strategy

TheLines.com’s player props tool is a crucial element to betting props efficiently. The prop finder tells you where to get the best price on any prop, key for Monday Night Football prop bets. Whether it’s getting the best number on a total, or getting the best price on an Anytime Touchdown, the prop finder lets you know where your money will go furthest.

Having an expected game script is also important. Just like when betting Same Game Parlays, betting solo props is best done with a theory of how the game will go. Whether a team will be run heavy or be forced to go to the air can be determinative of how the prop market will go. Getting this right is important for Monday Night Football props.

In this case, whether or not Aaron Rodgers is going to be efficient and effective is key to this game. Given Rodgers’ 2022 season saw him rank 23rd in Dropback EPA, 22nd in Success Rate, and 18th in Completion Percentage Above Expectation, it’s likely not the case. Given that, a more pessimistic expectation for the Jets offense makes sense. Assuming the Bills can score like the No. 2 EPA Offense they were last year, the Jets should be trailing for much of this game.

Monday Night Football Props To Consider

Stefon Diggs Over Receptions

Diggs averaged nearly seven receptions/game in 2022 and did so despite Allen fighting through a UCL injury. He is the more consistent of the main two Bills options and should be heavily targeted. This bet is also aided by the Bills’ third-best Pass Rate Over Expected from 2022, which will increase the number of pass plays the Bills run.

The concern would be that Diggs could get Sauce Gardner, but that’s why this is a completions bet, not a yardage one. One of the ones to neutralize Sauce is to have Diggs modify his route tree. Shorter depth of target routes, especially from the slot, would see Diggs’ volume of catches stay high while neutralizing Gardner’s value.

Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD () and Over receiving yards

The Bills’ big offensive addition this offseason was Kincaid, their first-round pick and new Tight End. Kincaid caught 8 TDs in 12 college games and should be an end zone focus for the Bills, who gave Dawson Knox 6 TDs last season. With a big investment in a younger, more offensively gifted tight end, Kincaid should get tons of opportunity.

Those opportunities are likely to be valuable – the Jets allowed the fifth-most completions to TEs and the sixth-most yards in 2022. Nothing they did in the offseason seems particularly primed to address this weakness either. If the Jets are going to give up the middle of the field, then Kincaid to be a gamebreaker, both in the Touchdown markets and to go over his yardage prop, makes a lot of sense.

Dalvin Cook Under Rushing Yards: O/U /

Given the Jets have a considerable chance of playing from behind in this game, Cook could see little use in the rushing game. He’s already in a split backfield with the returning Breece Hall, and as a late-camp signee, there are concerns about his suitability for a heavy workload.

Against a Bills defense that was fifth-best by EPA against the rush, Cook and Breece Hall are in for a difficult night at the best of times. With the potential for having to play from behind and that stout rush defense, Cook is in for a rude first game in New York.

Best of luck betting on Monday Night Football Props!

Rank

Sportsbooks

Bonus

Features

Play