Bills vs. Dolphins: Week 17 NFL Betting Preview – January 3, 2021

Posted By Staff on December 29, 2020

The Buffalo Bills (12-3) are favored by  in a matchup against the Miami Dolphins (10-5) on Sunday, January 3, 2021 at Bills Stadium. The over/under is set at for the outing.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of December 29, 2020, 2:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bills vs Dolphins Betting Odds

Bills vs Dolphins Props

Looking to bet on props for this game? Use our prop search tool to find the best odds across legal sportsbooks in the US.

Betting the Total (Over/Under)

  • Bills games average 52.9 total points per game this season, equal to the over/under for this matchup.
  • Dolphins games average 44 total points, 0.5 fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • Bills games have gone over 44.5 points on 10 occasions this season (66.7% of matchups).
  • Miami’s contests have gone over 44.5 points on eight occasions (53.3% of games).
  • The total for this matchup is 44.5 points, 10.4 fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams.
  • The Bills are the sixth-highest scoring team in the NFL this year. The Dolphins have scored the 15th-most points.
  • The over/under for this game is set at 44.5 points, 2.4 points higher than the two teams’ opponents scoring average.
  • Miami has allowed the fewest points in the league this season, while Buffalo has given up the 14th-fewest.
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Bills Betting Insights

  • Buffalo is 10-5 against the spread.
  • The Bills have an ATS record of 7-4 when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.
  • Most of Buffalo’s games this year — 10 out of 15 — have hit the over (66.7%).

Dolphins Betting Insights

  • Most of Miami’s games this year — nine out of 15 — have failed to go over the point total (60%).
  • Miami has put together an 11-4 record against the spread this season.
  • The Dolphins are 4-2 ATS when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs.

Bills vs Dolphins: Head to Head

Bills vs Dolphins: Last 3 Meetings
Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
9/20/2020 Bills Dolphins -5.50 42.00 -225 +195 524-410 BUF 31-28 BUF
11/17/2019 Bills Dolphins -7 41.5 -345 +290 424-303 BUF 37-20 BUF
10/20/2019 Bills Bills -17 42 -1115 +850 381-305 MIA 31-21 BUF

Check out TheLines YouTube channel to learn more about betting tips and picks for this week’s NFL action.

When the Bills Have the Ball

  • The Bills have put an average of 29.7 points per game on the scoreboard this season, 10.9 more than the 18.8 the Dolphins have surrendered in each contest.
  • In games where Buffalo score at least 29.7 points this season, they are 7-1 overall and 7-1 against the spread.
  • Miami is 7-0 overall and 7-0 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 18.8 points.
  • The Bills hold a 30.4-yard advantage in total yards gained versus total yards allowed compared to the Dolphins defense this season (392.5 to 362.1). The Bills average 6.1 yards per play while the Dolphins give up 5.8 per play.
  • In contests where the Buffalo offense totals at least their average yard output this season, they are 5-2 against the spread and 7-0 overall.
  • When Miami allows fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average, they are 7-1 against the spread and 7-1 overall this season.
  • The Dolphins defense has given up an average of 118.9 yards per game to opposing running games this season. That’s 9.4 yards more than the rushing output per contest for the Bills (109.5).
  • When Buffalo rushers gain at least a combined 109.5 yards this season, they are 6-0 overall and 3-3 against the spread.
  • When Miami limits opposing teams to 118.9 rushing yards or fewer this year, they are 8-2 against the spread and 7-3 overall.
  • This season, the Dolphins have forced an average of 1.8 turnovers per game, compared to the 1.3 times Bills have turned the football over in each contest.
  • When Buffalo turns the football over 1.3 times or fewer this season, they are 8-1 overall and 5-4 against the spread.
  • Miami’s record this season when they force more than 1.8 turnovers: 6-1 ATS, 5-2 overall

When the Dolphins Have the Ball

  • The Dolphins rack up 25.2 points per game, comparable to the 23.3 per outing the Bills allow.
  • Miami is 7-1 against the spread and 6-2 overall when the team notches at least 25.2 points.
  • This season, Buffalo has a 7-1 record against the spread and a 7-1 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 29.7 or fewer points.
  • The Dolphins average just 14.4 fewer yards per game (331.3) than the Bills allow per contest (345.7). On average, the Dolphins gain 5.3 yards per play, while the Bills give up 5.5 per play.
  • Buffalo has a 4-2 record ATS and a 5-1 record overall when holding its opponents to 345.7 yards or less.
  • This season, the Dolphins pile up 107.9 yards per game on the ground, 15 fewer per game than the Bills allow per contest (122.9).
  • Miami has a 5-1 ATS record and a 6-0 overall record when the team runs for at least 107.9 yards.
  • This season, Buffalo is 6-2 against the spread and 8-0 overall when holding opponents to no more than 122.9 yards on the ground.
  • This year, the Dolphins turn the ball over 1.1 times per game, 0.4 fewer turnovers per game than the 1.5 the Bills force on average.
  • Miami is 8-2 against the spread and 7-3 overall when it turns the ball over 1.1 or fewer times.
  • When it forces 1.5 or more turnovers, Buffalo has a 7-1 record against the spread and a 7-1 record overall.

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Bills Players to Watch

  • Josh Allen leads the team with 4,322 passing yards (288.1 yards per game) and has a 69.1% completion percentage this year (378-of-547) while throwing 34 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also has 417 rushing yards on 100 carries with eight touchdowns, averaging 27.8 yards per game.
  • Devin Singletary has taken 153 carries for a team-leading 679 rushing yards (45.3 yards per game) while scoring two touchdowns. He’s also caught 37 passes for 263 yards (17.5 receiving yards per game).
  • Zack Moss has 473 yards on 109 carries (39.4 ypg), with four rushing touchdowns over the course of 12 games.
  • This season, Stefon Diggs has 120 catches (on 160 targets) to lead the team with 1,459 yards (97.3 per game) with eight touchdowns.
  • Cole Beasley has also tacked on 967 yards on 82 catches with four touchdowns. He has been targeted 107 times and puts up 64.5 receiving yards per game.
  • This season, Gabriel Davis has caught 33 passes on 57 targets for 492 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 32.8 receiving yards per game.
  • Mario Addison has notched a team-leading five sacks, while adding seven TFL and 28 tackles.
  • Jordan Poyer has collected 117 tackles, four TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions this season.
  • Tre’Davious White has a team-high three interceptions and has tacked on 59 tackles, two TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 11 passes defended.

Dolphins Players to Watch

  • Myles Gaskin has picked up a team-high 564 rushing yards (51.3 yards per game) and scored two touchdowns in 11 games. He has tacked on 37 catches for 331 yards (30.1 receiving yards per game) with two receiving touchdowns.
  • Salvon Ahmed has 290 yards on 69 carries (58.0 ypg), with two rushing touchdowns over the course of five games.
  • Mike Gesicki has been targeted 75 times and has 48 catches to lead the team with 656 yards (46.9 ypg) while scoring six touchdowns in 14 games this season.
  • Jakeem Grant has contributed with 36 catches for 373 yards and one touchdown over the course of 14 games this year. He has been targeted 54 times and averages 26.6 receiving yards per game.
  • Emmanuel Ogbah has nine sacks to lead the team, and has also added six TFL and 42 tackles.
  • Jerome Baker has totaled 105 tackles, seven TFL, and seven sacks this season.
  • This season, Xavien Howard leads the team with nine interceptions and has added 47 tackles, one TFL, and 19 passes defended.

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