Bills vs. Ravens: NFL Playoff Betting Preview – January 16, 2021

Posted By Staff on January 15, 2021

The Buffalo Bills () square off against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs on January 16, 2021 at 8:15 PM ET on NBC. The contest’s over/under is set at .

The game marks the 10th meeting between the teams in a series the Ravens lead, 6-3. The most recent game between the teams unfolded in Week 14 of the 2019 season, when Baltimore recorded a 24-17 road win.

In that contest, the Bills limited Lamar Jackson to 3.6 yards per carry but surrendered three passing touchdowns to the 2019 NFL MVP. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s Josh Allen completed just 17 of 39 passes for 146 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions while taking six sacks overall.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of January 12, 2021, 1:41 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bills vs Ravens Betting Odds

Bills vs Ravens Props

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Betting breakdown

Two wins separate these two squads’ regular-season records, but oddsmakers have plenty of respect for what the Ravens have been able to accomplish after an underwhelming 6-5 start to the campaign. Baltimore finished the regular season with five consecutive wins before notching a road win over the Titans in last Sunday’s wild-card contest. John Harbaugh’s squad also finished the regular season with a 6-2 road mark straight up, plus the Ravens boast a 9.2-point net margin of victory on the road and net ATS+/- of 3.9 points. Notably, Buffalo counters with figures of 7.9 and +6.4 in those respective categories.

The game opened at 2.5 points in favor of Buffalo on Sunday evening, bumped up to 3.0 briefly Monday morning, and subsequently bounced between 1.5 and 2.5 points. Currently, the Bills are listed at . The injury outlook is excellent for both teams, making that a non-factor.

As of Tuesday afternoon, this game is one of three on the weekend with a total of at least 50 points. The significant upside of both offenses certainly supports the notion of that figure, with the Ravens averaging the seventh-most points per game this season and postseason (28.7), while the Bills racking up the second-most points per contest over the same period (31.1). And, while Baltimore did tie with the Rams for fewest points per game allowed (18.6), the Bills were notably more generous, allowing 23.5 points per contest.

Betting the Total (Over/Under)

  • The points total average for Bills games this season is 54.8, 4.8 points higher than the over/under for this matchup.
  • Ravens games average 48.2 total points, 1.8 fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • Bills games have gone over 50.0 points on nine occasions this season (56.2% of matchups).
  • Baltimore’s games have gone over 50.0 points on seven occasions (43.8% of games).
  • The total for this matchup is 50.0 points, 10.5 fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams.
  • The Bills score the second-most points in the league this season, while the Ravens’ offense puts up the seventh-most.
  • These teams allow a combined 42.3 points per game, 7.7 fewer points than this matchup’s over/under.
  • Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest points in NFL play this season, while Buffalo has given up the 16th-fewest.
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Bills Betting Insights

  • Most of Buffalo’s games this year — 11 out of 16 — have gone over the point total (68.8%).
  • Buffalo has compiled an 11-5 record against the spread this season.
  • The Bills have an ATS record of 7-4 when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.

Ravens Betting Insights

  • Baltimore has put together a 10-5-1 record against the spread this season.
  • The Ravens are 8-5-1 ATS when an underdog by at least 1.5 points.
  • Most of Baltimore’s games this year — nine out of 16 — have failed to go over the point total (56.2%).

Bills vs Ravens: Head to Head

Bills vs Ravens: Last Meeting
Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
12/8/2019 Ravens Bills -6.5 44 -275 +235 257-209 BAL 24-17 BAL

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Ravens vs. Bills matchup

As just alluded to, on paper, the Ravens offense appears to have the better matchup on paper than the Bills do against Baltimore’s fearsome unit. Buffalo’s defense didn’t necessarily stand out in any one category, although they did tighten up against the pass at the tail end of the regular season. The Bills currently rank just in the bottom half of the league with 359.5 total yards allowed per game, including 387.0 per home contest. Buffalo is also now allowing 268.7 passing yards per home game after giving up 309 yards and two TDs to Philip Rivers in the wild-card game, and they are yielding 122.2 rushing yards per contest as well.

All of those numbers bode well for Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Marquise Brown and the Ravens’ other high-upside assets on that side of the ball. For the ground game, which Harbaugh still favors at an NFL-high 55.8 percent clip, there should be plenty of opportunity against a unit that gives up an elevated 4.5 RB yards per carry. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are certainly set up for potential success in light of those numbers, but Jackson, a de facto running back in his own right who racked up a whopping 136 rushing yards against the Titans last Sunday, is also in a good spot — Buffalo surrendered 327 rushing yards and seven TDs on the ground to quarterbacks.

Jackson may also have to pick up his production through the air to keep up with the Bills, irrespective of how effective his team’s defense has been. The 2019 NFL MVP once again threw for under 200 yards versus Tennessee, making it the sixth time in the last seven games he fell short of that mark. The Bills are allowing a middle-of-the-pack 6.8 yards per attempt, and Jackson did rack up 37 completions of greater than 20 yards, including four of over 40 yards, this past regular season. Considering the speed of Brown – as well as that of fellow wideouts Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay — there could be some opportunities downfield in the air attack. Yet, Tre’Davious White, who allowed just a 45.8 percent completion rate in primary coverage this season, looms large as a ballhawk that Jackson will have to navigate.

On the other side, there will be an intriguing battle of strength vs. strength. The Bills average an AFC-high 31.1 points per game, as well as the second-most total yards per game (396.5). A good chunk of that production came through the air. Buffalo averages the third-most passing yards per game (289.5) and passes at a 60.5 percent rate. Stefon Diggs also finished the season as the NFL’s top receiver courtesy of a 127-1,535-8 line and added 128 yards and a TD on six receptions versus Indianapolis. However, the Ravens are a thorny matchup. Baltimore allows the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (221.0) during the regular season and limited opponents to the third-lowest yards per attempt (5.7) on the road.

The Bills running game was completely overshadowed by the exploits of Allen and Diggs at times this season. Buffalo generates just 107.0 rushing yards per contest and rank right in the middle of the league with 4.36 adjusted line yards per carry facilitated. Conversely, Baltimore allows the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (105.4) and 10th-fewest adjusted line yards per carry (4.16). The Bills are also now without Zack Moss, who headed to injured reserve Tuesday with the ankle injury he suffered in the wild-card win over the Colts.

When the Bills Have the Ball

  • The Bills have put an average of 31.3 points per game on the scoreboard this season, 12.4 more than the 18.9 the Ravens have surrendered in each contest.
  • When they meet or go over their scoring average this season, Buffalo is 6-0 and 6-0 against the spread.
  • When the Baltimore defense allows 18.9 points or fewer this year, the Ravens have pieced together a 9-0 overall record and an 8-0-1 record against the spread.
  • The Bills hold a 66.6-yard advantage in total yards gained versus total yards allowed compared to the Ravens defense this season (396.4 to 329.8). The Bills average 6.1 yards per play while the Ravens give up 5.2 per play.
  • When the Buffalo offense puts together a game with at least their 2020 average in yardage, they are 8-0 overall and 6-2 against the spread this season.
  • When the Baltimore defense allows less than their season average for total yards this season they are 6-2 against the spread and 6-2 overall.
  • The Ravens defense has given up an average of 108.8 yards per game to opposing running games this season. That total is about the same as the rushing output per contest for the Bills (107.6).
  • In games where the Buffalo rushing attack puts together at least their season average this season, the Bills are 6-0 overall and 3-3 against the spread.
  • This season, when the Baltimore defense allows opponents to pick up less than 108.8 yards on the ground, they are 5-1-1 against the spread and 5-2 overall.
  • The Bills have turned the ball over 1.4 times per game this season, while the Ravens have averaged 1.4 takeaways per contest.
  • In games where they turn the football over 1.4 times or fewer this season, Buffalo is 8-1 overall and 5-4 against the spread.
  • Baltimore’s record this season when they force more than 1.4 turnovers: 6-0 ATS, 5-1 overall

When the Ravens Have the Ball

  • The Ravens put up 29.2 points per game, 5.8 more than the Bills allow per matchup (23.4).
  • When Baltimore puts up at least 29.2 points, it is 6-1-1 against the spread and 8-0 overall.
  • This season, Buffalo has a 6-0 record against the spread and a 6-0 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 31.3 or fewer points.
  • The Ravens average only 10.5 more yards per game (362.9), than the Bills give up per contest (352.4). The Ravens average 5.8 yards per play, while the Bills give up 5.5 per play.
  • When the Buffalo offense put together a game with at least their 2019 average in yardage, they were 6-2 overall and 6-1-1 against the spread last season.
  • In games Buffalo limits its opponents to 352.4 or fewer yards, it has a 4-3 record ATS and a 6-1 record overall.
  • This season, the Ravens average 191.7 yards per game on the ground, 72.1 more per game than the Bills allow per outing (119.6).
  • Baltimore has a 5-1 ATS record and a 5-1 overall record when the team runs for at least 191.7 yards.
  • Buffalo is 7-2 against the spread and 9-0 overall when holding opponents to 119.6 rushing yards or less.
  • This year, the Ravens turn the ball over 1.1 times per game, only 0.5 fewer turnovers per game than the 1.6 the Bills force on average.
  • Baltimore is 9-4 against the spread and 10-3 overall when it turns the ball over 1.1 or fewer times.
  • This season, Buffalo has an 8-1 record against the spread and an 8-1 record overall when it forces at least 1.6 turnovers.

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Bills Players to Watch

  • Josh Allen has thrown for 4,546 yards while completing 69.2% of his passes (396-of-572), with 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 16 games this year (284.1 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 102 times for 420 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 26.3 yards per game.
  • Devin Singletary has taken 156 attempts for a team-leading 686 rushing yards (42.9 yards per game) while scoring two touchdowns in 16 games. He’s also caught 38 passes for 269 yards (16.8 receiving yards per game).
  • Zack Moss has 481 yards on 112 carries (37.0 ypg), with four rushing touchdowns over the course of 13 games.
  • This season, Stefon Diggs has 127 catches (on 168 targets) to lead the team with 1,535 yards (95.9 per game) while scoring eight touchdowns in 16 games.
  • Cole Beasley’s statline this year shows 82 grabs for 967 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games. He puts up 64.5 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 107 times.
  • Gabriel Davis has caught 35 passes on 62 targets for 599 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 37.4 yards per game in 16 contests in 2020.
  • Mario Addison has 5.0 sacks to lead the team, and has also collected 7.0 TFL and 28 tackles over 15 games.
  • In 16 games over the course of the 2020 campaign, Jordan Poyer has racked up 119 tackles, 4.0 TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions and leads the team in tackles.
  • Tre’Davious White has a team-high three interceptions and has tacked on 59 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 11 passes defended 14 in games this season.

Ravens Players to Watch

  • Lamar Jackson has thrown for 2,757 yards while completing 64.4% of his passes (242-of-376), with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 16 games this year (172.3 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 159 times for 1,005 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 62.8 yards per game.
  • J.K. Dobbins leads the team with 805 rushing yards on 134 carries (50.3 yards per game), with nine touchdowns on the ground over the course of 16 games in 2020.
  • Marquise Brown has been targeted 99 times and has 58 catches to lead the team with 769 yards (48.1 ypg) while scoring eight touchdowns in 16 games this season.
  • Mark Andrews’ statline this year shows 58 catches for 701 yards and seven touchdowns over the course of 16 games. He averages 43.8 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 89 times.
  • Willie Snead IV has caught 33 passes on 48 targets for 432 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 28.8 yards per game in 15 contests in 2020.
  • Yannick Ngakoue has 7.0 sacks to lead the team, and has also collected 7.0 TFL and 24 tackles over 15 games.
  • In 16 games over the course of the 2020 campaign, Patrick Queen has totaled 105 tackles, 9.0 TFL, three sacks, and one interception and leads the team in tackles.

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