Big East Tournament Odds & Picks: St. John's Favored; Dark Horse Xavier?
With March Madness odds nearing tip-off, the odds for the Big East tournament have arrived. The 2025 Big East men's basketball tournament starts on Wednesday. This postseason event includes 11 participants, and the winner will take home the conference's auto-bid for the NCAA tournament. Let's handicap the most relevant information for Big East tournament odds. St. John's, which is favored among the odds for the league tourney, won't play until Thursday.
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2025 big east tournament Odds
big east tournament odds: fade st. john's?
No matter which sportsbook (and its corresponding college basketball promo codes) bettors sift through, the Johnnies are perched atop the board for the Big East tourney. As of this publishing, Caesars Sportsbook has them positioned with a 46.5% implied probability of winning the tournament title.
St. John's ranks seventh in Haslametrics' record quality (RQ), winning 16 of its last 17 games. Most bracketologists project Rick Pitino's squad will earn a No. 2 seed in March Madness. There is an outside shot that the Red Storm can steal a spot on the one-line, but it would require an epic meltdown from Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, and Michigan State in their respective conference tournaments.
Considering that the Johnnies won't have as much to play for, they may continue to rest combo guard Deivon Smith, who has missed eight contests due to a right shoulder injury.
Madison Square Garden will provide a de facto home atmosphere for St. John's, yet with Pitino potentially opting to play it safe, I believe there's value lower down the board. Heck, Butler may even give the Red Storm a scare in the quarterfinals if the Bulldogs take care of Providence. Remember that Thad Matta's bunch nearly upset St. John's in each of their regular-season meetings.
big east Upset Pick: xavier betting Odds
In his second stint with Xavier, Sean Miller saw his group drastically underperform to begin the campaign. Part of that was a byproduct of the Musketeers replacing four starters from last year. They also played without veteran forward Zach Freemantle (bone bruise) for a three-game stretch in early January, falling by two possessions or fewer against UConn and Marquette.
Entering Champ Week, Xavier is among the most underrated teams in the nation. Since Jan. 22, when they fell in overtime at St. John's before beginning their seven-game winning streak, they've ranked 25th in Barthag — ahead of Creighton, UConn, and Marquette. As noted, all those teams are seeded higher in the conference tourney.
The Musketeers' uptempo offense, a philosophical shift from some of Miller's more recent seasons during his Arizona tenure, relies heavily on ball-screen action. For context, they settle in the 95th percentile on efficiency via dribble hand-offs on a points per possession (PPP) basis.
Although St. John's boasts one of the premier defenses in college basketball, Marquette, UConn, and Creighton are vulnerable against motion offenses. Moreover, Xavier's defense ranks 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) in the abovementioned span, marginally behind championship contenders Auburn and Texas Tech.
In a perfect scenario, the Musketeers would've appeared on the other side of the bracket. That said, given that they're currently projected to land in Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four, they have more at stake than the Johnnies.
On Sunday afternoon, I bet on Xavier's Big East tournament odds (+1300 at Caesars). I'd play them down to +1200. You’ll find all my plays in real time on our free sports betting Discord channel. Users can enroll in push notifications via the #roles server to secure instant alerts.
I even threw some pizza money on the Musketeers to make the Final Four (+11000 at FanDuel Sportsbook).
Futures Betting vs. Moneyline (ML) Rollover
For novice bettors, this strategy involves betting on a team's ML odds and using the winnings to bet the ML in the subsequent game. ML rollovers are especially favorable for teams that could be underdogs in the remainder of their potential matchups.
Here's an example. A $100 futures bet on Xavier would net $1,200 if it wins the Big East tournament at 12-1 odds. But let's say bettors try to use the ML rollover option. Wagering $100 on the Musketeers as +105 quarterfinal underdogs against Marquette would net $105 if they advance.
Then, you'd roll over the $205 as an underdog in potential showdowns against St. John's and Creighton.
While we can use a parlay calculator to determine that average odds (+210 and +120) or shorter in the final two games would produce a slightly better return than a futures bet, this game plan does not guarantee a more profitable outcome.
If St. John's, Creighton, or UConn are upset, the moneyline rollover strategy will generate a lower ROI.
Big East Tournament Path
Unlike the bracket for ASUN odds, the Big East tournament won't reseed at any point. St. John's, Creighton, UConn, Marquette, and Xavier have first-round byes. You can follow along with the league's official bracket below.
2025 big east Tournament Schedule
- First Round: Wednesday, March 12
- Quarterfinals: Thursday, March 13
- Semifinals: Friday, March 14
- Big East Tournament Championship: Saturday, March 15
How To Watch big east Tournament
FS1 and Peacock will broadcast the opening round and quarterfinals on Wednesday and Thursday. The semis and title game will air on FOX.
watch: big east tournament betting preview
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