Trump vs. Biden: 2024 Election Odds On The Move After State of The Union, Haley Dropout
After a busy week in Presidential politics, including Super Tuesday and Joe Biden’s State of the Union address, the battle lines are drawn for the Presidential election. The race is now set after Nikki Haley dropped out. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are their presumptive party nominees. Biden Trump odds will be a dominant feature of 2024 election betting.
With polls showing Donald Trump up nationally and in most swing states, panic is setting in for Democrats. Is the panic justified?
2024 Election Biden – Trump Odds
| Candidate | DraftKings Ontario Price |
| Joe Biden | +185 |
| Donald Trump | -120 |
Check out the rest of TheLines’ political betting coverage.
Is Trump The Favorite?
If the Presidential Election were today, Donald Trump would probably win.
There’s no reason to deny that he’s in a solid place as of right now. He’s up 2% on average right now, which is a swing of just over 6% since 2020. Given Trump lost Pennsylvania – what would have been his 270th Electoral College vote in 2020 – by 1%, he’s in a great spot. If the election was right now. Which it’s not.
Do Voters Think Joe Biden Is Too Old?
Biden’s age is a problem. That said, on some level, there are reasons to think his problems are overstated. Democrats have performed well in one-off special elections, including flipping back NY-03 in February. That could be a sign that Democrats are more popular than Biden.
However, Biden also polls better against Trump than Vice President Kamala Harris does. If it was really about Biden’s age, wouldn’t there be a well of people who oppose Trump, want to vote for Democrats, but won’t vote for Joe? (It’s also the case that the polls – wrong in 2016 and 2020 – are overcorrecting to avoid a third straight underestimating of Republicans.)
On the other hand, plenty of discourse is being spilled on Biden’s weaknesses on his left flank. Be it because of the war in Gaza or general discontent, Biden has real weakness. But it’s much easier to fix weakness amongst voters on your flank than to fix a problem with moderate voters. And that’s what Trump has.
Trump’s Challenge WIth Moderates
Nikki Haley’s primary campaign has reminded us of a signal truth – Donald Trump is repellent to a lot of voters who have traditionally voted GOP. As much as he has grown the GOP’s base of voters as well, he has bled voters who are socially liberal, pro-choice, and generally decently wealthy.
And that’s a huge advantage for Biden.
Campaign Advantage For Biden?
As of the end of January, Joe Biden has an extra $100M cash on hand over Donald Trump. Between Trump having to spend on his primary and his paying legal fees via campaign cash, he only has $ 30 million in the bank, while Biden has $130 million. That advantage is hugely valuable in terms of the ability to spend on ads. Super PAC dollars, the GOP’s usual solution, can’t turn that around.
The truth that Republican campaigns are missing these days is that campaign dollars are worth more on the advertising market than any other. Federal law mandates campaigns get the cheapest ad rates available. The same ad, run by Biden For America or a Democratic Super PAC, could cost triple depending on who buys it. With the GOP so dependent on billionaire PAC dollars to make up for the exodus of the donor class, they can’t compete.
Democrats, on the other hand? Their newfound fiscal dominance will enable them to massively outspend Republicans, blitzing the airwaves with reminders about January 6th, the Dobbs decision, and the risk to a woman’s right to choose, and trumpeting their accomplishments.
Oh, and Donald Trump will be in courtrooms all year.
Trump’s Legal Travails
Donald Trump starts a criminal fraud trial this month relating to his hush money payments to pay off a porn star in 2016. In April, the US Supreme Court will hear arguments that he’s immune from prosecution, a defense he’s using in his January 6th case. He’s also got the Georgia case stemming from his attempt to steal that state at the 2020 election which should go to trial this year.
Independent of whether Trump is convicted in any of those states, he’ll be paying lawyers in, at minimum, three jurisdictions. The cost of keeping him out of jail with campaign funds will be Biden getting to blitz the swing states with ads. Trump will be stuck in court while Biden can campaign. Trump will face weeks and weeks of headlines about January 6th, which will be repellent to swing voters.
Oh, and he might be convicted of any number of crimes before the election. If that happens, he’ll lose.
Conclusions
Biden is the clear bet right now. I think he’s the favorite to win for a set of reasons that have little to do with the current polls. The case for him is simple. He has a cash advantage, he’s not going to be spending 2024 on trial, he didn’t try to steal an election, and his Supreme Court picks didn’t take away a woman’s right to control their own reproductive health.
This is the Biden low point. Betting him now doesn’t preclude any other options. But I predict Biden’s price will be shorter in two months.
Best of luck analyzing Biden-Trump odds.
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