Just how fast is a certain crop of horses in the Kentucky Derby? Below, we’ll use Beyer Speed Figures to determine the speed of the 2022 Kentucky Derby field. How do they stand up to last year’s group and what can we expect from these 20 horses?
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2022 Kentucky Derby Field Beyer Speed Figures
Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. Below is the best and most recent BSF from each horse in the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field.
| Post/Number | Horse | Best BSF | Most Recent BSF | Odds Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Epicenter | 102 | 102 | +500 |
| 10 | Zandon | 98 | 98 | +400 |
| 15 | White Abarrio | 97 | 95 | +1000 |
| 2 | Mo Donegal | 96 | 96 | +1000 |
| 9 | Tiz the Bomb | 94 | 94 | +3000 |
| 16 | Cyberknife | 92 | 92 | +1500 |
| 7 | Crown Pride (JPN) | N/A | N/A | +3000 |
| 12 | Taiba | 103 | 102 | +1000 |
| 13 | Simplification | 96 | 92 | +2000 |
| 5 | Smile Happy | 94 | 94 | +1500 |
| 17 | Classic Causway | 90 | < 80 | +3000 |
| 18 | Tawny Port | 90 | 89 | +3000 |
| 14 | Barber Road | 88 | 88 | +3000 |
| 6 | Messier | 103 | 98 | +800 |
| 19 | Zozos | 98 | 98 | +3000 |
| 4 | Summer Is Tomorrow | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| 8 | Charge It | 93 | 93 | +1500 |
| 2 | Happy Jack | 83 | 83 | +5000 |
| 11 | Pioneer Of Medina | 93 | 93 | +3000 |
| 20 | Ethereal Road | 84 | 84 | +5000 |
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How Do They Compare To 2021?
Overall, the 2022 Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than the 2021 field. Taiba (+800) and Messier (+800) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby Prep races. Comparatively, Rock Your World ran a 100-BSF, which paced the 2021 group. Messier posted his on Feb. 6, 2022 in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), a 1 1/16 mile run which Messier won. Taiba ran his in a five-furlong Maiden Special Weight in March.
The top-end speed runs deeper in this field, as well. Epicenter (+400) ran his own 102 BSF race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). At 1 3/16 miles, it’s the longest Derby prep race, which is why the market looks extremely bullish on Epicenter.
The number of horses to run at least a 95 BSF is equal in the past two Derbies at nine apiece. However, seven horses posted a BSF between 90-94 in the 2022 crop versus five in 2021. The bottom of the crop is equivalent in both years, with the lowest top-BSF at 83.
How Do Beyer Speed Figures Translate In The Kentucky Derby?
In 10 of the last 12 Runs For The Roses, the winner posted a 100+ BSF in victory. The lone outright winner to run under a 100 came in 2014 (California Chrome, 97). In 2019, Country House received the win with a 99 BSF. However, that came after the disqualification of Maximum Security.
The winner of the Kentucky Derby will likely run their best career race, but having a history of 100+ BSF helps predict such a performance.
Full 2022 Kentucky Derby Field, Odds
| Post | Horse | Latest odds (6:30 p.m. ET | Morning Line Odds | Trainer | Jockey | W-P-S (Races) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mo Donegal | 9-1 | 10-1 | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 3-0-2 (5) |
| 2 | Happy Jack | 20-1 | 30-1 | Doug O'Neill | Rafael Bejarano | 0-0-2 (3) |
| 3 | Epicenter | 5-1 | 7-2 | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 4-1-0 (6) |
| 4 | Summer Is Tomorrow | 33-1 | 30-1 | Bhupat Seemar | Mickael Barzalona | 2-3-0 (7) |
| 5 | Smile Happy | 14-1 | 20-1 | Kenny McPeek | Corey Lanerie | 2-2-0 (4) |
| 6 | Messier (CAN) | 6-1 | 8-1 | Tim Yakteen* | John Velazquez | 3-3-0 (6) |
| 7 | Crown Pride (JPN) | 17-1 | 20-1 | Koichi Shintani | Christophe Lemaire | 3-0-0 (4) |
| 8 | Charge It | 15-1 | 20-1 | Todd Pletcher | Luis Saez | 1-2-0 (3) |
| 9 | Tiz the Bomb | 27-1 | 30-1 | Kenny McPeek | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 5-1-0 (8) |
| 10 | Zandon | 6-1 | 3-1 | Chad Brown | Flavien Prat | 2-1-1 (4) |
| 11 | Pioneer of Medina | 53-1 | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher | Joe Bravo | 2-1-2 (6) |
| 12 | Taiba | 5-1 | 12-1 | Tim Yakteen* | Mike Smith | 2-0-0 (2) |
| 13 | Simplification | 35-1 | 20-1 | Antionio Sano | Jose Ortiz | 3-1-2 (7) |
| 14 | Barber Road | 54-1 | 30-1 | John Ortiz | Rey Gutierrez | 2-4-1 (8) |
| 15 | White Abarrio | 14-1 | 10-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Tyler Gaffalione | 4-0-1 (5) |
| 16 | Cyberknife | 15-1 | 20-1 | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 3-2-0 (6) |
| 17 | Classic Causway | 75-1 | 30-1 | Brian Lynch | Julien Leparoux | 3-1-1 (6) |
| 18 | Tawny Port | 74-1 | 30-1 | Brad Cox | Ricardo Santana Jr. | 3-1-0 (5) |
| 19 | Zozos | 43-1 | 20-1 | Brad Cox | Manny Franco | 2-1-0 (3) |
| 21 | Rich Strike | 80-1 | 30-1 | Eric Reed | Sonny Leon | 1-0-3 (7) |
