Bettors Piling On Streaking Saints For Thursday Night Football

FairwayJay November 29, 2018 358 Reads
Saints

The New Orleans Saints are kicking ass and taking numbers. And taking a lot of bets, too, including for Thursday’s primetime matchup against the also mini-streaking Dallas Cowboys (3-0 SU/ATS). According to SportsInsights, nearly 70 percent of bets at contributing books have come in on New Orleans as of Thursday afternoon.

The streaking Saints have won 10 straight games since a Week 1 loss at home to Tampa Bay. But for bettors, the 9-0 ATS streak by the Saints is even more impressive — and profitable.

Saints scoring at a record pace

The Saints have won five straight games by 10 or more points, and seven of their nine ATS wins have been by double digits. In a record-scoring season in which NFL games are averaging 48.04 points per game, the Saints lead the NFL averaging 37.2 points per game. You have to go back to 2013 to find a team that was close to the Saints record scoring, as the Denver Broncos led by QB Peyton Manning averaged 36.4 points per game, and the next closest team that season averaged 27.9. That was also the year that the Seattle Seahawks’ elite defense dominated Denver in the Super Bowl 43-8. Is there a defense that can slow down the Saints?

Thursday night: Cowboys vs. Saints

There is hope for the Cowboys against the Saints, even with Dallas as a big home underdog. Fan and betting interests will make the Cowboys vs. Saints matchup one of the highest-rated primetime attractions of the 2018 NFL season.

  • New Orleans Saints (10-1): First place in NFC South and current No. 1 seed in NFC
  • Dallas Cowboys (6-5): Tied for first place in NFC East
 DraftKingsBetStarsFanDuel888sportSugarHouse
SpreadNO -7 (-117)
DAL +7 (-104)
NO -7 (-118)
DAL +7 (-105)
NO -7 (-110)
DAL +7 (-110)
NO -7 (-117)
DAL +7 (-104)
NO -7 (-114)
DAL +7 (+100)
TotalOv 51.5 (-110)
Un 51.5 (-110)
Ov 52 (-105)
Un 52 (-118)
Ov 51.5 (-110)
Un 51.5 (-110)
Ov 51.5 (-110)
Un 51.5 (-110)
Ov 51.5 (-107)
Un 51.5 (-107)
MoneylineNO -335
DAL +255
NO -333
DAL +260
NO -300
DAL +250
NO -335
DAL +255
NO -315
DAL +256

New Orleans opened as a 7-point favorite, with some sportsbooks charging 12/10 vigorish to take the Saints rather than the traditional 11/10. The Saints are up to a 7.5 point favorite at some books as of Thursday afternoon, but most of the online operators in New Jersey have dropped it back to an even seven.

The Dallas defense has been one of the better units in the NFL this season, allowing 331 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play to rank No. 7 in the league. The Dallas defense features some stunt or twists on every pass rush snap. They execute those patiently and they work well with coverage.

Meanwhile, the Saints offensive efficiency numbers look like this:

  • 415 yards per game with balance, ranking No. 6 in both rushing and passing YPG
  • No. 1 in fewest giveaways (nine) and No. 1 in fewest offensive penalties
  • No. 3 in red zone touchdown percentage

Betting trends and Saints success

New Orleans is not only the hottest team in the league and a big money-making 9-0 ATS run during the 10-game winning streak, but the Saints are also 11-3 ATS since last season when facing an opponent with a winning record. New Orleans has also outscored those opponents by 10.9 points per game.

The Saints have scored at least 40 points in six games this season. Dallas has yet to allow a team to score 30 or more points.

There has been little letdown by the Saints even off of big margin victories as the point spreads rise. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS since the start of last season when coming off a win by 12 or more points, and the Saints won last Thursday night at home over Atlanta 31-17 in a misleading final score as the Saints gained 312 yards and the Falcons suffered a 4-1 negative turnover differential.

The Saints lead the NFC South by four games with five remaining, but New Orleans is still pushing for the No. 1 seed in the NFC with the LA Rams (10-1) only loss of the season against the Saints.

Thursday Night Football betting odds and analysis

There is a reason why the Saints are now the favorite to win the NFC (+150) and Super Bowl (+300). They are a great team, and bettors can’t get enough of New Orleans.

As of late Tuesday night, the Saints had taken 79 percent of the bets per BetLabs. On game day Thursday morning, Action Network reported that the betting splits were 70/30 with the majority on the Saints at the consensus sportsbook. Sharp bettors are taking Dallas +7.5.

The total opened 54.5 but was quickly bet down by Monday. On Thursday morning, the total had dropped from 52.5 to 51.5 at many online sportsbooks and in New Jersey but was holding 52.5 at most Las Vegas sportsbooks and 52 at both MGM and the Westgate SuperBook.

The Saints rewarded Thanksgiving Day bettors with a win and (fortunate) cover against the Falcons 31-17 as Atlanta suffered numerous turnovers in the red zone. In the Saints, three road games against quality opponents Baltimore and Minnesota and even hard luck, injury-riddled division rival Atlanta, the Saints were not laying more than 2.5-points and won two close games and a 30-20 win at Minnesota despite being out-gained 433-270 by the Vikings.

Still, the ticket count continues to climb on the streaking Saints Thursday night at Dallas.