Parlays hold a special place in the lore of sports betting. There are many stories of an insane parlay bet hitting for huge money against all odds. Hell, the climaxes of recent critically acclaimed movies “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Uncut Gems” both revolve around daring parlay bets.
So, what is a parlay? How does a parlay work? Should you bet parlays?
We’ll cover the answers to these questions and more here, as we go over all things parlay.
What is a parlay bet?
Different parts of the world have different terminologies for parlays. Depending on the sportsbook or the region, they may also be called “accumulators” or “multis.”
Whatever the name, the concept is fairly simple. A parlay bet simply combines multiple wagers into one bet. It does this by rolling over the winnings from each individual wager into the next leg of the wager. Each “leg” or individual bet in the parlay must win for the parlay to grade as a winner.
Let’s take an example from a recent Super Bowl for example – the showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. According to Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs closed -3 on the spread with a betting total of 54.5 between the two teams.
Say a bettor wanted to place a wager on both the spread and the total, risking $100. They could simply take $50 and bet on the Bucs +3, then take the other $50 and take the under 54.5. When both bets win, our hero nets $90.90, assuming a -110 price on both bets.
Or, this same bettor could instead put both wagers into a $100 parlay, should he or she choose. Now, the bets become linked – both sides of the bet must win in order for the bet to win. This time, when the Bucs lift the Lombardi after their 31-9 victory, the bettor nets $264.
Quite a difference, right? But, before you go off and load the cannon to fire the bankroll on a bunch of parlays, read on.
How does a parlay bet pay out?
Again, when the sportsbook accepts the parlay bet, they set up a multi-level wager wherein each bet that wins becomes a bigger wager on the next leg.
In the above example with two standard -110 legs, the first bet becomes $100 on the Bucs +3 or the under 54.5. In this case both bets finish at the same time so it doesn’t matter which one represents the “first” leg. Since the Bucs +3 covered the spread, that $100 becomes $190.91.
Now, that $190.91 becomes the stake for the second leg, under 54.5. That came home as well, and a -110 bet for that price pays out $173.55. Add these up and you get $364.46.
Remember, the bettor started with a $100 stake, so $264.46 would represent the profit in this parlay bet.
If you’re trying to do some back of the envelope math to figure out what a parlay bet will pay out, a simple framework exists for -110 wagers. We’ve already seen that a two-teamer pays about 2.6-to-1. A three-teamer pays about 6-to-1, and the odds roughly double from there for every -110 bet added to the parlay.
Let’s look at some examples of how parlays would work with hypothetical bets from Week 1 of the NFL season. All of the lines to follow come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Since we’ve already broken down a two-team parlay, we’ll take a look at a three-team parlay and then a four-team parlay.
3-Leg parlay bet
A simple 3-team parlay on the moneyline during the NFL or NBA regular season is a way of stringing together a few favorites. Many bettors enjoy playing these moneyline parlays because they feel confident in favored teams winning, but they don’t want to lay long odds to win an amount well below the stake.
Looking at NFL Week 2 odds, here is an example using three home favorites:
- Detroit Lions (-365) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Kansas City Chiefs (-267) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Philadelphia Eagles (-267) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The hypothetical bettor here puts down $100 by parlaying these three legs in three separate Week 2 windows. Starting with the 1 p.m. ET time slot, the bettor needs the Lions to defeat the Bucs. Should Detroit prevail, the total payout would be $127.40, and that is the amount now riding on the Chiefs. For hypothetical purposes, we’re going to assume Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs defeat Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The potential winnings now increase to $175.11, $75.11 of which would be the profit.
That $175.11 becomes the MNF bet on the Eagles. With an Eagles victory, the total payout ends up being $240.70, including a profit of $140.70. Thus, the three-team parlay paid out about +141.
4-Leg parlay bet
Let’s say our hero wants to be a little more aggressive this time. Three-team moneyline favorites or a three-leg parlay with short odds might feel safe, but this one only paid +141. Unexciting.
How about a four-leg SGP with longer odds to spice things up? Our hero really believes there are a couple of underdogs with plus odds that have a legitimate shot of hitting. Plus, there are a couple of point spreads that have his attention:
- New England Patriots +3 (-105) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Cleveland Browns (+140) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Cincinnati Bengals +6 (-105) at Kansas City Chiefs
- L.A. Rams (-110) at Arizona Cardinals
The bettor, making the same $100 bet, was impressed with how the Patriots looked during NFL Week 1, and they’re playing at home against Seattle. He might shop around to see if one of the books is offering New England +3.5 to break the tie should Seattle win by a field goal. However, the bettor thinks his pick has a chance to win this one outright. If we chalk it up as a win combined with a Browns outright victory over the Jags, the total riding in the late Sunday afternoon window is up to $468.57, including $368.57 in hypothetical profits.
The $468.57 is now riding on a Bengals point spread cover against the Chiefs and a Rams outright win against the Cardinals. Unlike the previous example in which our bettor liked the Chiefs to win outright, the thinking here is that the Bengals have something to prove following last week’s disappointing start. So the Bengals +6 is another parlay leg. Again, some of the top sports betting sites might have the line at +6.5.
Add in a Rams outright win over the Cardinals, and the total payout becomes $1,746.49 with a profit of $1,646.49. Notice that this payout is considerably higher than the rule of thumb we quoted earlier. Small changes in the price—these prices are all between -110 and +140 — make a large difference to the parlay payout. The odds for this 4-leg parlay come out to +1646 versus +141 from the previous example.
The downside of parlay betting
Most sources will tell you parlays are a poor way to bet on sports, at least in terms of long-term expected value. That’s because for a parlay to have a positive expected value (+EV), all or almost all of the bets in the parlay must have a positive expected value.
This is a very difficult bar to clear, so most parlays simply make it easier for the sportsbook to win the bettors’ money. For evidence, simply check the revenue breakdown from any legal betting market. The best betting sites consistently keep a larger portion of the money they take on parlays, by quite a margin too.
If that doesn’t convince you, an easy way to see it is to look at the expected value of the $100 parlay versus the expected value of two $50 spread bets, all at -110 prices. We’ll save you the math, but assuming exactly 50% probability of the individual bets winning here’s how it works out:
- Parlay: -$9
- Straight bets: -$4.55
If you want to hand the sportsbooks money at double the normal rate or faster, using parlays should do the trick.
The upside of parlays
Now, despite what the content in the sports betting industry overwhelmingly tells you, parlays are not the root of all evil. There are good reasons to bet parlays as well.
First and foremost, people enjoy sweating small bets that can win big. It’s the same logic that drives the popularity of the lottery.
Many people simply don’t care that they are placing a -EV bet. For them, betting isn’t necessarily about trying to make money long term, and that’s OK. Putting disposable income on a six-teamer that has next to no chance of coming home brings them entertainment. If they are betting responsibly and they enjoy parlays, then parlay away.
Second, +EV parlays definitely exist. We’ve already talked about parlaying winnings bets together to increase potential payout. But, even breakeven or -EV bettors can sometimes find winning parlay bets through a concept called correlation.
Correlated parlay bets
What if you could parlay two bets, but winning one bet increased the odds of winning the other bet? Well, turns out you can. These parlays are known as “correlated parlays.”
The most obvious example would be parlaying the first half over with the game’s total over. Very obviously, if the first-half total comes in, the overall total has become a favorite to win.
Since that’s incredibly obvious, sportsbooks have blocks in place to prevent you from betting these parlays. Or at least, they used to. Recently, “same-game parlays” (SGPs) have become a phenomenon in sports betting. But be warned, you must check the payouts on these before booking them and see how they compare to the individual bets parlayed together. Sportsbooks often fudge the payouts in accordance with the correlation, and that kills the +EV aspect of them.
In any case, some correlated parlays are allowed and pay out in full. A good potential example comes up in Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season. There, the KC Chiefs travel to Washington for a date with the Football Team.
Assuming things work out as expected, Kansas City has an incredibly potent offense while Washington will bring a very strong defense to bear. If the game winds up a high-scoring shootout, it’s very unlikely Washington can keep up. But, if the contest winds up low-scoring – likely going under the total – Washington has a much better chance of covering or winning.
If you agree with this premise then conceptually – Washington and the under are correlated bets. Therefore, placing them both in a parlay bet has a +EV if you’re correct.
What happens to my parlay bet if the game gets canceled?
Since parlay bets are made up of multiple legs, newer bettors often have questions about grading parlays. Obviously, a single loss dooms the parlay, but sometimes bets neither win nor lose.
First and most common would be a push. In the four-team parlay above, imagine Houston lost by three but the other legs won. In this case, the push simply drops off the bet and it becomes a three-team parlay.
The other case to be aware of comes from canceled or rescheduled games, more of a concern now than ever thanks to the pandemic. Again, most times, the bet simply comes off the parlay and it reverts to a smaller parlay.
Same deal for a rarely seen tie in a moneyline bet. Unless you’re betting a three-way market (often used in soccer), the tie comes off of the parlay.
Consult your sportsbook’s rules for full details on how they handle various situations pertaining to various bets.
Types of parlays
The most common types of parlays are Round Robin parlays and Teasers.
Round Robin
A Round Robin bet is placing multiple parlay wagers at once. It’s just that simple. Round Robin bets are just a way to simplify making multiple parlays. When a bettor “Round Robin’s” teams in sports betting it’s similar to a horse bettor “boxing” horses for an exacta or trifecta bet in a race.
The bettor will select anywhere from 3 to 8 teams or totals to be in the Round Robin. They will then choose how many teams or totals they’d like to tie together for the Round Robin. For example, a bettor may select eight teams and totals for a Round Robin and tie the parlays to as many three-team combinations as possible.
The combination of teams will dictate how many different parlays the bettor has. Continuing the example, if a bettor wants to Round Robin eight teams they will have 28 different parlays if they choose two teams. If the bettor chooses to make three-team parlays they will have 56 different parlay tickets.
The ticket will cost the amount chosen for each parlay. If the bettor only has $300 they might choose to Round Robin the teams by two, so they have 28 different parlays for $10 each. The payout for each winning parlay is the same as it would be if the parlay bets were each made individually.
Teaser
A teaser is similar to a traditional parlay where the bettor can select multiple teams or totals. However, there are no moneylines allowed with a teaser. Unlike a parlay, the bettor may move each point spread or total plus or minus a certain number of points. The additional points on the spread or total make these bets easier to win and thus they pay less than a traditional parlay.
Teaser bets can change the point spreads or totals anywhere from six to 10 points. However, each leg of the teaser must use the same number of points. Those legs of the teaser may go in different directions.
- For example, the Kansas City Chiefs -7 can be teased down six points to -1. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans can be teased up six points from +4 to +10 points.
Much like a traditional parlay, the more teams involved with a teaser the better the payoff. Again, different sportsbooks have different odds and rules so they might have different payouts and teaser options available to bet.
Parlay Cards
The more popular way to bet parlays in casinos today seems to be with a Parlay Card. These are the long narrow cards where bettors fill in the numbered circle of the side or point spread they want to include in their bet. Once the teams and totals are chosen the bettor simply presents the filled in portion on the card to the ticket writer in the sportsbook along with how much they’d like to wager.
Parlay Cards are especially popular during football season. There are many different types of Parlay Cards including a variety of teasers, ties win and reverse teaser cards known as pleasers. These are more popular every year so the mobile sports wagering apps have started to add Parlay Cards for mobile bettors.