NFL Power Rankings: All 32 Teams For the 2023 - 2024 Season


View our NFL Power Rankings for the 2023 – 2024 season below. Nate Weitzer ranks all 32 teams and has the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs in the top spot during the off-season. Obviously much could change over the course of the summer as training camps and more transactions transpire. But for now, here are where the teams rank if they had to play on a neutral field tomorrow.

Check out the rankings for all 32 teams left below.

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NFL Power Rankings

KC Chiefs
Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy dialed up the right plays in the red zone to produce 24 second-half points and earn another Super Bowl. Bieniemy is a hot candidate for another job, but if Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are sticking around, there is little reason to leave this powerhouse offense. 
PHI Eagles
Jalen Hurts is arguably the most unstoppable force in short-yardage situations that the NFL has seen and he showcased his passing chops by going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LVII. The Eagles will bring back several key pieces from a top-rated DVOA pass defense and elite pass rush that helped them win 14 regular season games last season. 
SF 49ers
The Niners replaced DeMeco Ryans with Steve Wilks at DC and grabbed Bobby Slowik from the Texans to serve as Kyle Shanahan’s offensive coordinator. Whether it’s Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or another passer, San Francisco’s QB will be set up for success with weapons all over this offense.  
CIN Bengals
Joe Burrow draws deserved attention for his poise against pressure and lethal accuracy, yet the Bengals defense was arguably more impressive during their thrashing of the Bills in Buffalo, and that unit nearly led Cincy back to the Super Bowl. 
BUF Bills
It was a disappointing second half of the season for the Bills and a surprisingly meek exit from the Divisional Round. Sean McDermott has brought in several new assistants and now it falls on GM Brandon Beane to tinker with a Super Bowl calibre roster.
LAC Chargers
Despite the insane amount of talent the Chargers have accrued over the past few seasons, they’ve yet to make a dent in the playoffs under Brandon Staley. Injuries have played a key role in their shortcomings, but it’s a put-up-or-shut-up season next year with new OC Kellen Moore looking to get the most out of Justin Herbert. 
DAL Cowboys
Dak Prescott is making $31 million with a $49 million cap hit next year and the Cowboys have at least $16 million attributed to Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin. That doesn’t leave a lot of flexibility for Dallas to improve through free agency, although the scouting department recently hit a home run in the draft with Micah Parsons.  
JAX Jaguars
The Jaguars are well ahead of schedule with Doug Pederson molding Trevor Lawrence into a high-end quarterback in their first season together. The front office made the most of their ample cap space last offseason and could be aggressive this spring with the AFC South very much up for grabs.
NYG Giants
Daniel Jones made a tremendous leap under first-year coach Brian Daboll and Saquon Barkley was healthy enough to carry the Giants into the playoffs. Now it’s time to get Jones some legitimate weapons at receiver and address some of the holes on the Giants defense.
MIN Vikings
The Vikings went 8-1 at home this season and won an NFL record 11 one-score games to run away with the NFC North. They fizzled out in the Wild Card round and opened with +5000 odds to win the Super Bowl next year. 
MIA Dolphins
The long-term health of Tua Tagovailoa is a concern for Miami heading into next season after he suffered several concussions last year. The Dolphins offense was prolific when Tua was upright and Mike McDaniel was hot calling plays in his first season as head coach. 
DET Lions
After starting 1-6, Dan Campbell’s Lions came on strong down the stretch and knocked the Packers out of the playoffs with a road win in primetime. There are a ton of weapons on this offense and a great line to anchor the point of attack.
BAL Ravens
Lamar Jackson never suited up for Baltimore’s Wild Card game against the Bengals and there will be questions about his contract negotiations until free agency opens March 15, and likely beyond. 
NYJ Jets
The Jets have been strongly linked to the Packers as a trade partner for Aaron Rodgers. Pairing a future Hall of Fame QB with a top-tier defense could make the Jets contenders in the loaded AFC East. 
LAR Rams
Expect a swift turnaround from Sean McVay and the Rams offensive braintrust, which now includes former Jets OC Mike LaFleur. If they can improve their offensive line through the draft and free agency, the 2022 champs could get back in the mix. 
DEN Broncos
The Broncos made the splashiest hire of the offseason by landing Sean Payton and the veteran head coach is already taking charge in Denver. Expectations were high for the Broncos and Raiders last season and both teams fell well short. 
CLE Browns
An offense built around Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and a top-tier line seems like a soft landing spot for Deshaun Watson as he prepares for his first full season of football following a poor six-game stretch to end last season. The Browns look to fix their leaky run defense under new DC Jim Schwartz. 
NO Saints
Dennis Allen enters his second season as head coach and he will need some help to jumpstart a dormant Saints offense that averaged just 13.5 points per game over their final six games last year. Despite that lack of production, New Orleans has retained veteran OC Pete Carmichael.  
SEA Seahawks
It will be a busy offseason for Seahawks GM John Schneider and his staff, as they consider how to handle the contracts of Tyler Lockett, oft-injured safety Jamal Adams, and AP Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith. 
GB Packers
It sounds like Jordan Love will get the keys of the Packers offense next season with Aaron Rodgers likely moving on through trade or retirement. Matt LaFleur’s offense was extremely run-heavy last year with Green Bay’s offensive line holding up well. 
TB Buccaneers
Tom Brady announced his retirement and OC Byron Leftwich was shown the door. The Bucs are looking for answers at QB, but their defense is good enough to keep them in contention in the downtrodden NFC South. 
NE Patriots
Another team with glaring holes at wide receiver, the Patriots will need to bolster their firepower if they want to compete in an increasingly competitive AFC East. Bill O’Brien returns as OC to try and fix a relatively anemic passing attack. 
CAR Panthers
Frank Reich should look to maintain the momentum established by Steve Wilks when the Panthers became a hard-hitting, run-first team midway through last season and nearly won the NFC South. 
TEN Titans
The Titans lacked receiving options and Ryan Tannehill (ankle) wasn’t healthy down the stretch, leading to an absurd collapse from their perch atop the AFC South. Perhaps there is too much sitting on Derrick Henry’s massive shoulders. 
PIT Steelers
Kenny Pickett won his final six starts with the Steelers sole loss down the stretch coming when their rookie QB got knocked out of a rivalry game against the Ravens. Somehow, someway, they avoided posting a losing record for the first time under Mike Tomlin. 
LV Raiders
When a team blows the most double-digit leads in modern NFL history, the head coach is usually the scapegoat. Instead the Raiders are moving on from Derek Carr and giving Josh McDaniels another shot to find success with a very talented roster. 
WAS Commanders
Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke were both serviceable in spots for Washington, but this franchise is still looking for a franchise quarterback. If Jeff Bezos buys the Commanders, they should have no problem paying the luxury tax to acquire a top-tier passer. 
IND Colts
The Colts are reportedly lining up Eagles OC Shane Steichen as their next head coach. Their next head coach has a messy QB situation to clean up after Matt Ryan was benched, re-inserted, and benched again last season. 
ATL Falcons
WIth $51.7 million in cap space, the Falcons could become major players in free agency this spring. They could free up even more money by cutting Marcus Mariota if they’re willing to commit to third-rounder Desmond Ridder. 
ARI Cardinals
The Cardinals disintegrated during the second half and finally parted ways with Kliff Kingsbury after a rough partnership. Questions still surround Kyler Murray’s leadership potential as the franchise searches for a new head coach. 
CHI Bears
Justin Fields put his body on the line for the better of a season and came away with a shoulder injury. The Bears will have to weigh their potential future with Fields under center as they consider drafting consensus No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. 
HOU Texans
DeMeco Ryans seems like a good hire for a Texans team that was surprisingly competent defensively during the second half of last season. Houston badly needs to add weapons at the skill positions. 

How the rankings are created

The sports betting experts at TheLines file individual NFL Power Rankings each Monday morning throughout the pro football season. Brett Collson, Matt Brown, Nate Weitzer, Matt Burke, Stephen Andress, Brett Gibbons and Mo Nuwwarah rank all 32 teams each week and we post the consensus rankings above.

Each person on staff at TheLines files their rankings based on week-to-week play in the NFL, providing a weekly snapshot as to how “powerful” each team is at certain points throughout the season.

Stay tuned for updates to our power rankings all season long! These can serve as a valuable tool for placing NFL futures bets or planning how to bet on NFL games.

Of course, you have to account for factors such as travel time, home field advantage, and injuries as the season progresses. Yet early in the season, it’s possible to go against the betting public by sticking to your own process.

Bettors tend to overreact to recent results and are very reactionary in an “update league” like the NFL. Therefore, the betting market shifts to these reactions.

If you stick with the raw data, i.e. metrics on offensive line play, a quarterback’s record at home, and turnover differential, you might be able to cash big early in the season before oddsmakers and the betting public adjust. Trust your data and stay one step ahead with a comprehensive Power Rankings system.

How to handicap NFL games

What does it mean to “handicap” a game? At first, it might seem that you’ll be running advanced metrics and spitting out numbers and point spreads. In reality, handicapping is a fancy bettor’s term for preparing and researching. There’s dozens of game factors that need to be taken into account like injuries, matchups, and metrics but also market factors like line movement and public biases.

Surface-level factors

First are the surface-level factors that can determine a game like home field advantage (though in 2020, that was severely diminished), key injuries, and the weather. For injuries, don’t just browse the fantasy football injury report– a diminished offensive line or defensive secondary can be devastating to a team’s performance.

Traditionally, the home team is given a 2- or 3-point advantage for playing in their home city in front of their home fans. Even without fans in attendance, travel takes a toll on visiting teams and has some (albeit diminished) effect on the line. Also needed for consideration is the weather: rain, wind, and snow can hurt a pass-heavy offense and cold weather might hurt warm-climate teams. Teams playing at altitude (Denver) may also have an advantage over teams that don’t frequently play at altitude (Miami).

Strength of schedule is useful when looking at futures bet. The Rams and Cardinals have the most difficult schedules in 2022, based on the combined 2021 record/winning percentage of their opponents. NFC West teams will have it rough in 2022, as they will face AFC West teams. Most prognosticators predict that the AFC West could be one of the greatest divisions in pro football history. Be sure to factor in all division vs. division matchups when surveying the NFL landscape.

Deeper factors

Beyond those easily-identifiable factors are matchups, schemes, and metrics. If you aren’t a film junkie, don’t worry – there’s plenty of Twitter follows and websites that can help you break it down and make it easily understandable.

Look for size advantages in receivers and defensive backs; players like Mike Evans can make life difficult for a 5’ 8” corner and the Buccaneers might gameplan to exploit that advantage. Other positional advantages to keep in mind: pass rushers against inexperienced/struggling offensive tackles and athletic pass-catching tight ends against linebackers who struggle defending receivers.

Advanced metrics can be telling and expose weaknesses in teams, but with thousands of metrics out there, it can be difficult to tell which are really helpful. NBC’s Warren Sharp is a great resource for finding advanced metrics that make significant differences in outcomes. A quick tab on stats worth paying attention to:

  • Yards per play (rather than total yards)
  • Expected points per drive (rather than points per game)
  • Air yards per attempt (rather than passing yards thrown)
  • 3rd down conversion

These numbers will break down the efficiency and effectiveness of an offense (or defense, if you’re going with allowed) and remove the “garbage time” numbers plenty of players can pile on. Contrary to the belief that stats never lie, stats can actually be the best liars when used incorrectly.

If you’ve really got a handle on the NFL game, a popular focus recently has been on coaches’ understanding of analytics and their willingness to utilize probability factors in their gameplan. Failing to use analytics and probability can cost teams victories. Examples include rushing on third and long, hoarding timeouts, settling for field goals inside the three yard line, etc. Older coaches who’ve rejected the use of modern analytics can move lines (especially over/unders) and are worth keeping tabs on.

Market factors

Outside of the game itself, bettors should understand how lines move and react to sharp bettors and the general public. One thing to remember about public betting: they are easily and drastically influenced by recency bias and non-sequitur trends.

Sharp bettors (professionals and those who prepare correctly) can take advantage of moving lines and get better odds for their wagers. Taking the Watkins example, bettors who take the under now have 20 more yards of breathing room and a higher probability of success. The same goes for good players who play a poor Week 1 (ex. Saquon Barkley in Week 1 of 2020). Their futures will decrease due to the public all betting under their totals, and gives sharp bettors more space to work with when betting overs.

This tactic is known as fading the public and has a long track record of success.

Power Rankings vs. Power Ratings

Everyone sees Power Rankings just about everywhere you look – SportsCenter, the Herd, just about every website – and those are useful in their own right. The concept is simple, just a 1-32 list of the best team to the worst team. Maybe it’s based on metrics, maybe it’s based on the eyeball test, maybe it’s both.

Power Ratings differ quite a bit despite sounding similar. Ratings quantify the numerical advantage one team has over another based on past scores and season performance. Ratings are drawn exclusively from quantifiable metrics (though those metrics may differ person to person) and are used to help predict future scores and outcomes, rather than saying Team X is just better than Team Y and should win.

How to build your own Power Rankings

For those looking to rank teams 1-32 based on last season, the games ongoing this season, and looking quickly at the depth chart, you can do just that. However, it likely won’t serve as a useful tool when it comes to betting, especially against the spread; you’ll want to build (or find) a set of power ratings first. That way, you’ll have a more accurate and quantifiable justification to your rankings and remove potential biases.

To create these power ratings, begin with ranking the teams according to projected number of wins. This will give you a base to work with rather than working from scratch. Assign a number to each team, starting at the top with 16 and running down to the bottom where the last ranked team receives -16. From there, adjust the numbers– 16 through -16, with zero being the middle– based on projected point totals, defensive ranks, and personnel. If interested, look up formulas on expected point differentials to create a more pinpoint rating for each team.

Putting it together

Once you have your numbers, compare two teams (numbers in parentheses are hypothetical power ratings): Indianapolis (12) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-8).

The difference between these teams ratings, 4, is now your theoretical point spread. Add in a 2.5-point advantage for the home team (Los Angeles) for an adjusted point spread of 1.5 in favor of the Colts.

Now add in your factors (injuries, metrics, etc.) to fine-tune your spread. Derwin James is out for the season and creates a massive disadvantage for the Chargers’ defensive secondary (the numbers on this are worth looking up) and should benefit the Colts at least half a point. Your final spread for this game comes out to Colts -2 (-110) @ Chargers.

Now, take your projected spread of -2 and compare it to the Vegas lines. Say the opening line comes out to Colts -4.5 (-110) @ Chargers. That should be an easy bet, since our projected point total is -2 and we would take the Chargers to cover. The process will take some refining and new factors will emerge as the season goes on, but this is the basic process in handicapping your own NFL games.

Not only will this help you quantify point spreads and decide on feasible spreads, but it will help you dig deeper and find new metrics that create a new dimension of understanding for betting on the NFL.

2022 NFL Pre-season Power Rankings

Here were our initial 2022 – 2023 Power Rankings accompanied by their DraftKings Sportsbook Super Bowl odds at the time.

RankTeamSuper Bowl odds - August 30
1Buffalo Bills+550
2Kansas City Chiefs+1000
3LA Chargers+1400
4LA Rams+1200
5Tampa Bay Buccaneers+700
6Cincinnati Bengals+2200
7Green Bay Packers+1000
8Baltimore Ravens+2000
9San Francisco 49ers+1600
10Indianapolis Colts+2500
11Denver Broncos+1800
12Philadelphia Eagles+2200
13Minnesota Vikings+3500
14New Orleans Saints+4000
15Las Vegas Raiders+4000
16Dallas Cowboys+2200
17Arizona Cardinals+4000
18Miami Dolphins+4000
19New England Patriots+5000
20Tennessee Titans+4000
21Cleveland Browns+5000
22Pittsburgh Steelers+9000
23New York Giants+13000
24Carolina Panthers+13000
25Detroit Lions+15000
26Washington Commanders+7000
27Jacksonville Jaguars+13000
28New York Jets+13000
29Atlanta Falcons+20000
30Seattle Seahawks+15000
31Houston Texans+25000
32Chicago Bears+15000