By Nate Weitzer
In Week 10, the Saints suffered a shocking home loss to the Falcons and the Chiefs dropped another game despite the return of Patrick Mahomes. The Vikings edged the Cowboys and the Seahawks outlasted the 49ers in a Monday night classic to conclude an exciting week of football.
In an effort to keep you informed on the league’s changing landscape, TheLines will provide weekly Power Rankings every Monday throughout the season.
These power rankings look beyond records by predicting the actual potential of each team, thus helping fans think ahead when playing fantasy football or placing bets at sportsbooks.
During the season, we’re calculating these rankings based on roster construction, coaching, and intangible factors that may or may not motivate players and coaches to reach their potential. The NFL futures odds set by sportsbooks for teams also serve as a very useful guide in determining these rankings.
As the season progresses, we will incorporate more analytics to dive deeper into the actual performance and potential of each team. For example, we will often refer to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) as an indicator of how well a team is playing. This metric measures a team’s efficiency on every single play when compared to a league average based on situation and opponent. It can be used to break down offense, defense, or even specific skill groups and specific situations for offensive or defensive lines. We may also refer to “Weighted” DVOA, a system that places more weight on plays and games during the second half of the 2019-2020 season.
Odds will change on sportsbooks and injuries are bound to play a huge factor in the NFL season (see: Andrew Luck, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger), so stay tuned for updates each week.
Week 11 NFL Power Rankings 2019
|Rank||Team||Prev. Rank||Super Bowl Odds|
1. New England Patriots (8-1)
The Patriots could come out of their bye week even stronger after deciphering some of their own weaknesses in their first loss at the Ravens. New England’s challenging upcoming schedule begins with a trip to Philadelphia.
2. San Francisco 49ers (8-1)
Without Emmanuel Sanders or George Kittle on the field, Jimmy Garoppolo seemed overwhelmed in the 49ers first true test. The best defense in the NFL can only take SF so far if they can’t find consistency at quarterback.
3. New Orleans Saints (7-2)
When the Falcons and Saints play, anything can happen. Sunday’s shocking 26-9 win for Atlanta is the latest example of how division games are unpredictable, as the Saints offense produced it’s lowest total in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era.
4. Seattle Seahawks (8-2)
Russell Wilson created more magic in a wild 27-24 overtime win at previously unbeaten San Francisco, adding even more steam to his MVP campaign.
5. Green Bay Packers (8-2)
By getting back to the running game and a solid defensive approach, the Packers bounced back from a Week 9 debacle at the Chargers. This team is built to grow stronger as the weather becomes harsher.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
Even with Patrick Mahomes (knee) back to give the offense a further boost, the Chiefs defense couldn’t hold up against Tennessee’s 22nd-ranked offense. KC is still a great buy-low candidate in Futures bets to win the AFC or Super Bowl.
7. Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
No let down for the Ravens in a cupcake spot against rookie Ryan Finley. Lamar Jackson is playing with incredible confidence and Baltimore’s defense has come around to dominance.
8. Minnesota Vikings (7-3)
A narrow win over the Cowboys in Dallas without Adam Thielen (hamstring) proves that the Vikings are a complete team with solid contributors in all three phases. Kirk Cousins is getting past the narrative that he can’t win big games.
9. Dallas Cowboys (5-4)
The Cowboys are clearly just a notch below the Vikings and appear to be a notch below the other elite teams in the NFC right now.
10. Houston Texans (6-3)
The Texans turned in their most complete effort with a 26-3 win over Jacksonville before their bye week. They’ll need to be close to perfect over their next three games against Baltimore, Indy, and New England.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
The Eagles also entered their bye week with good momentum after rallying to beat the Bills and Bears. Philly needs to figure out ways to stretch defenses with DeSean Jackson (abdomen) potentially done for the year.
12. Oakland Raiders (5-4)
With a strong running game and underrated defense, the Raiders have been able to earn a number of impressive wins this year, their latest achievement a 26-24 victory over the rival Chargers.
13. Carolina Panthers (5-4)
The Panthers are a reliable team when facing below-average opponents, but proved once again unable to hang with the NFL’s elite in a 24-16 loss at Green Bay this Sunday.
14. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
There is so much talent on this Chargers team, but their execution is lacking on both sides of the ball. Perhaps the defense will come around when Derwin James (foot) returns.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
That’s now four straight wins for a Steelers team that (no offense to Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges) essentially doesn’t have a capable QB, or a healthy RB with James Conner (shoulder) out. Pittsburgh’s stellar defense could lead this team to a playoff berth.
16. Indianapolis Colts (5-4)
The Colts likely would’ve beaten the Steelers in Week 9 and almost certainly would have handled the Dolphins in Week 10 if Jacoby Brisset didn’t suffer a sprained MCL. Once Brissett and T.Y. Hilton (quad) return, this team will be dangerous once again.
17. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
The Bills are who we thought they were: A solid home team without a good enough offense to compete in most road games. Their porous run defense has been a bigger issue of late.
18. Chicago Bears (4-5)
Granted it came against a Lions squad that was hamstrung by the absence of QB Matt Stafford, but the Bears finally snapped their losing streak and Mitchell Trubisky finally played well enough to earn a win.
19. Detroit Lions (3-4-1)
While you get credit for close losses and bad luck in our Power Rankings, the Lions are running out of chances. They’ve been shady about injury news regarding Matt Stafford (back), and are pretty much sunk if he can’t get back on the field soon.
20. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-6)
Jameis Winston continued to play well and led the offense down the field in a game-winning drive to lift Bruce Arians’ squad over his old team. The Bucs are a dangerous opponent with a great pass offense and lights out run defense, but their secondary is terrible.
21. Cleveland Browns (2-6)
The Browns finally squeaked out a win over the road-tripping Bills. They’ll need a crash course in preparation to get past surging Pittsburgh on Thursday night.
22. Los Angeles Rams (5-4)
The Rams offense is officially broken. The offensive line is marred by injuries and taking Cooper Kupp away left Jared Goff in a quagmire in Pittsburgh.
23. Tennessee Titans (5-5)
Derrick Henry ran wild and Ryan Tannehill did just enough to beat the Chiefs at home. The Titans are 3-1 with Tannehill starting and would have likely avoided losses to Denver and Atlanta if he started all season.
24. Denver Broncos (3-6)
Brandon Allen should be given the keys to the offense going forward in what seems to be a lost season for the Broncos.
25. Atlanta Falcons (2-7)
Dan Quinn used the extra bye week to get his team fired up enough to stun the Saints in New Orleans. We’re still waiting to see some consistency from the Falcons against a non-division foe before we move them further.
26. Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1)
Kyler Murray is playing well and Christian Kirk finally broke out against Tampa’s porous secondary. Yet without continuity in the running game, Arizona should continue to lose out on the time of possession battle.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)
Gardner Minshew struggled in his final start and we’ll see what the Jaguars offense looks like with Nick Foles (shoulder) set to return in Week 11.
28. Miami Dolphins (2-7)
Look at the Dolphins! Previously the laughing stock of the NFL, they’re now riding a two-game win streak heading into another winnable game at home against the Bills.
29. New York Giants (2-7)
Daniel Jones continued to put up numbers while turning the ball over like crazy, and it cost the Giants a chance to beat the lowly Jets. Their offensive line was also putrid in both the run and pass game.
30. New York Jets (2-7)
The Jets salvaged some pride by beating their crosstown rivals at the Meadowlands on Sunday. We’re still not giving Sam Darnold any respect, but their defense is formidable.
31. Cincinnati Bengals (0-9)
Ryan Finley was a sitting duck against the swarming Ravens defense and the Bengals woes in run defense continued in yet another loss.
32. Washington Redskins (1-8)
With Miami figuring things out, Washington is officially the most dysfunctional team in the NFL. Dwayne Haskins will try to make things happen for the league’s worst offense.
How to use NFL Power Rankings
Reading these weekly rankings (or even creating your own Power Rankings) can significantly increase your odds of placing correct bets against the spread each Sunday. You may even be able to create your own formula based on win probability, results over the past couple of seasons, and current updates.
Of course, you have to account for factors such as travel time, home-field advantage, and injuries as the season progresses. Yet early in the season, it’s possible to go against oddsmakers by sticking to your own process.
Sports bettors tend to overreact to transactions, such as Antonio Brown leaving the Steelers, and sportsbooks adjust the odds accordingly as money comes in. This creates opportunities to bet against the public as you see value appear in the market.
If you stick with the raw data, i.e. metrics on offensive line play, a quarterback’s record at home, and turnover differential, you might be able to cash big early in the season before oddsmakers and the betting public adjust. Trust your data and stay one step ahead with a comprehensive Power Rankings system.