NFL Power Rankings For 2022 - 2023 Season

A Glance At All 32 Teams


View our consensus NFL Power Rankings for the 2022 – 2023 season below. Rankings will be updated weekly by TheLines’ staff throughout the pro football season. After a consensus top 3 of the Bills, Chiefs and Chargers since the preseason, there is a new member of the elite. The Philadelphia Eagles slide in at No. 3 this week, while the Chargers tumble all the way to No. 9.

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NFL Power Rankings

BUF Bills
Down several defensive starters, with a couple of key offensive players checking out due to the heat, the Bills couldn’t finish a late drive in Miami and couldn’t quite clock the ball to get a last-second FG attempt. The Super Bowl frontrunners still opened as 4-point favorites ahead of another tough road game at Baltimore. 
KC Chiefs
A lack of aggression from OC Eric Bieniemy combined with a lack of execution from replacement kicker Matt Ammendola left the Chiefs with a weak 17 points on the board late in Indy, and the Colts made them pay with a game-winning drive.
PHI Eagles
One member of our panel ranked the Eagles as the No. 1 team in football this week. Matt Brown slotted the Birds in the top spot and Eli Hershkovich had Philly at No. 2 behind the Bills. While the competition has been relatively soft, the Eagles have looked as dominant as any team in football with 86 points and a 48.9% third-down conversion rate during a 3-0 start. They are favored in each of their next six games, including an opening line of -7 when they host the Jags in Week 4. 
LAR Rams
There is plenty for the defending Super Bowl champions to clean up based on their game film over the past two weeks. But a win is a win, and the Rams (+1) are only slight dogs heading into a Monday night matchup against a 49ers team that has beaten them in six straight regular season meetings. 
TB Buccaneers
With their receiving corps depleted by injuries, the Bucs have looked anemic on offense and they only managed one late TD in an NFC showdown with Green Bay. That won’t cut it when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (-3) come to town next Sunday night.
GB Packers
Aaron Rodgers did just enough with his lackluster weaponry to build a first half lead in a defensive slugfest against the Bucs. His Packers opened as 6-point favorites at home against the Pats and the spread is rising with Mac Jones (ankle) out. 
BAL Ravens
Lamar Jackson has rushed for 226 yards at 11.3 YPC over the past two weeks to overcome Baltimore’s lackluster run blocking. The MVP candidate is building his case ahead of a high-profile matchup with Josh Allen and the Bills.
MIA Dolphins
Mike McDaniel and his Dolphins pulled out a second straight gutsy win against an elite team with Tua Tagovailoa (13-for-18, 186 yards, TD) playing more of a managing role in their latest triumph. They are still slight underdogs as they head to Cincinnati for a Thursday night showdown.
LAC Chargers
Injuries are taking a huge toll on the Chargers. Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater is expected to miss the rest of the season after suffered a ruptured biceps tendon. And until Justin Herbert (ribs) gets healthy, the Chargers will have a hard time competing against the top teams in the AFC. Joey Bosa (groin) and Keenan Allen (hamstring) are also banged up.
MIN Vikings
The Vikings might have a more exciting offense under new HC Kevin O’Connell but their defense has given up a whopping 912 yards while getting crushed on time of possession over the last two weeks. Minnesota (-1) might be without Dalvin Cook (shoulder) in London against the Saints next week.
SF 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo panicked in the face of an end-zone rush and would have thrown a Pick Six if he didn’t step out of bounds first for a safety. Despite that embarrassing play, the Niners look like a capable playoff team with a conservative offense and elite defense.
CIN Bengals
Nothing like a matchup against the talent-deficient Jets to get back on track. The Bengals still had trouble protecting Joe Burrow and gave up two more sacks in the 27-12 win, but looked good enough to open as 1.5-point home favorites Thursday against the 3-0 Dolphins. 
DEN Broncos
When Denver had to have it Russell Wilson led a 12-play, 80-yard scoring drive to pull ahead of the Niners for an 11-10 win. It certainly hasn’t been pretty, but the Broncos (+1) are tied for first at 2-1 heading into their first division game at Las Vegas.
JAX Jaguars
Doug Pederson is maximizing the talent on this team, which is significantly improved after the front office dolled out $175.3 million in guaranteed money this offseason. The Jags beat the injured Chargers outright after opening as 7-point dogs, and are in the same spot against Jalen Hurts and the fearsome Eagles. 
CLE Browns
Averaging a league-high 190.7 rushing YPG, the Browns have been able to control clock and they dominated possession (36:09) in Thursday’s win over Pittsburgh. It is somewhat ironic that they became the first team since 2001 (also the Browns) to blow a 13-point lead with under two minutes to go in Week 2.
IND Colts
After falling on their faces in Jacksonville last week, the Colts came out with pride at home and held the Chiefs to 3-for-12 on third down to somehow pull out a 20-17 win when they averaged a measly 3.8 yards per play. They open as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Titans.
TEN Titans
The Titans got back to basics with a ground-and-pound approach and physical defense leading the way in a 24-22 win over the Raiders. Aside from Derrick Henry, there isn’t anything about this offense that should scare opposing teams. 
DET Lions
The Lions are 3-0 against the spread and they’ve been damn close to upsetting the Eagles and Vikings in their two losses. Their offense can match anybody and they open as 6-point home favorites against the Seahawks next week. 
LV Raiders
Josh McDaniels has been unable to adjust to different coverages thrown at Davante Adams since his Week 1 explosion. Without a reliable run game or versatile passing game, the star-studded Raiders have thrice come up short. 
NO Saints
With Alvin Kamara (ribs) banged up, Jameis Winston has essentially devolved to throwing deep balls towards rookie Chris Olave all afternoon. They connected for 147 yards in a losing effort at Carolina, but the Saints offense seems to lack cohesion without Sean Payton. 
ARI Cardinals
Kyler Murray masked some of Arizona’s glaring issues with a miraculous comeback in Week 2 at Las Vegas. The Cardinals have otherwise been a disaster on both sides of the ball and Kliff Kingsbury should be on the hot seat. 
DAL Cowboys
Mike McCarthy and his staff have done a decent job adjusting on the fly after losing several key offensive linemen and then losing Dak Prescott in their opener. There is still tons of talent on this team, led by stud pass rusher Micah Parsons.
CAR Panthers
While they gave up 426 scrimmage yards, the Panthers defense came up with three turnovers, and the run game was effective enough to hold off the Saints and snap a 9-game losing streak. They open as 3-point home dogs against Arizona next week. 
NYG Giants
The Giants churned out 6.7 YPC in a key Monday Night battle with Dallas, but went 3-for-12 on third and fourth down and couldn’t guard Ceedee Lamb when it mattered most in the fourth quarter.
NE Patriots
Mac Jones was 22-for-32 with three picks against Baltimore’s vulnerable secondary before he was knocked out of the game with a high-ankle sprain. The Patriots toothless offense will become even more one-dimensional with Brian Hoyer under center. 
WAS Commanders
Carson Wentz took nine sacks against the franchise that drafted him as Washington was run off its home field by the Eagles. The Commanders are getting 2.5 points in Dallas next week.
ATL Falcons
If the Falcons get all three of their primary weapons (Cordarelle Patterson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts) going, they can keep pace with most teams. They are an interesting 3-point underdog at home against Cleveland next week and a decent bet to top 4.5 wins for the season. 
PIT Steelers
The Steelers went 1-for-9 on third down on Thursday night with Mitchell Trubisky routinely missing open receivers. Their fan base might want to see Kenny Pickett start, but Mike Tomlin seems steadfast in his commitment to give the rookie some time. 
NYJ Jets
The Jets will face an AFC North team for a third straight week next Sunday in Pittsburgh in a game with an implied total hovering around 40.5 points.
CHI Bears
The Bears rank dead last in passing efficiency with an offensive line that can’t protect Justin Fields despite his excellent mobility. Khalil Herbert (20 carries, 157 yards, 2 TD) and LB Roquan Smith (16 tackles, INT) were the bright spots in their 23-20 win over Houston. 
SEA Seahawks
Geno Smith hit 10 different receivers as the Seahwaks racked up 420 total yards in a home loss to Atlanta. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker only got three carries as this rebuilding franchise searches for direction. 
HOU Texans
Their two losses have been one possession games down to the wire and they held a 20-3 lead before tying the Colts, but the Texans are clearly the least talented team in the AFC and are deservedly listed as 7-point home dogs against the Chargers. 

How the rankings are created

The sports betting experts at TheLines file individual NFL Power Rankings each Monday morning throughout the pro football season. Brett Collson, Matt Brown, Nate Weitzer, Matt Burke, Stephen Andress, Brett Gibbons and Mo Nuwwarah rank all 32 teams each week and we post the consensus rankings above.

Each person on staff at TheLines files their rankings based on week-to-week play in the NFL, providing a weekly snapshot as to how “powerful” each team is at certain points throughout the season.

Stay tuned for updates to our power rankings all season long! These can serve as a valuable tool for placing NFL futures bets or planning how to bet on NFL games.

Of course, you have to account for factors such as travel time, home field advantage, and injuries as the season progresses. Yet early in the season, it’s possible to go against the betting public by sticking to your own process.

Bettors tend to overreact to recent results and are very reactionary in an “update league” like the NFL. Therefore, the betting market shifts to these reactions.

If you stick with the raw data, i.e. metrics on offensive line play, a quarterback’s record at home, and turnover differential, you might be able to cash big early in the season before oddsmakers and the betting public adjust. Trust your data and stay one step ahead with a comprehensive Power Rankings system.

How to handicap NFL games

What does it mean to “handicap” a game? At first, it might seem that you’ll be running advanced metrics and spitting out numbers and point spreads. In reality, handicapping is a fancy bettor’s term for preparing and researching. There’s dozens of game factors that need to be taken into account like injuries, matchups, and metrics but also market factors like line movement and public biases.

Surface-level factors

First are the surface-level factors that can determine a game like home field advantage (though in 2020, that was severely diminished), key injuries, and the weather. For injuries, don’t just browse the fantasy football injury report– a diminished offensive line or defensive secondary can be devastating to a team’s performance.

Traditionally, the home team is given a 2- or 3-point advantage for playing in their home city in front of their home fans. Even without fans in attendance, travel takes a toll on visiting teams and has some (albeit diminished) effect on the line. Also needed for consideration is the weather: rain, wind, and snow can hurt a pass-heavy offense and cold weather might hurt warm-climate teams. Teams playing at altitude (Denver) may also have an advantage over teams that don’t frequently play at altitude (Miami).

Strength of schedule is useful when looking at futures bet. The Rams and Cardinals have the most difficult schedules in 2022, based on the combined 2021 record/winning percentage of their opponents. NFC West teams will have it rough in 2022, as they will face AFC West teams. Most prognosticators predict that the AFC West could be one of the greatest divisions in pro football history. Be sure to factor in all division vs. division matchups when surveying the NFL landscape.

Deeper factors

Beyond those easily-identifiable factors are matchups, schemes, and metrics. If you aren’t a film junkie, don’t worry – there’s plenty of Twitter follows and websites that can help you break it down and make it easily understandable.

Look for size advantages in receivers and defensive backs; players like Mike Evans can make life difficult for a 5’ 8” corner and the Buccaneers might gameplan to exploit that advantage. Other positional advantages to keep in mind: pass rushers against inexperienced/struggling offensive tackles and athletic pass-catching tight ends against linebackers who struggle defending receivers.

Advanced metrics can be telling and expose weaknesses in teams, but with thousands of metrics out there, it can be difficult to tell which are really helpful. NBC’s Warren Sharp is a great resource for finding advanced metrics that make significant differences in outcomes. A quick tab on stats worth paying attention to:

  • Yards per play (rather than total yards)
  • Expected points per drive (rather than points per game)
  • Air yards per attempt (rather than passing yards thrown)
  • 3rd down conversion

These numbers will break down the efficiency and effectiveness of an offense (or defense, if you’re going with allowed) and remove the “garbage time” numbers plenty of players can pile on. Contrary to the belief that stats never lie, stats can actually be the best liars when used incorrectly.

If you’ve really got a handle on the NFL game, a popular focus recently has been on coaches’ understanding of analytics and their willingness to utilize probability factors in their gameplan. Failing to use analytics and probability can cost teams victories. Examples include rushing on third and long, hoarding timeouts, settling for field goals inside the three yard line, etc. Older coaches who’ve rejected the use of modern analytics can move lines (especially over/unders) and are worth keeping tabs on.

Market factors

Outside of the game itself, bettors should understand how lines move and react to sharp bettors and the general public. One thing to remember about public betting: they are easily and drastically influenced by recency bias and non-sequitur trends.

Sharp bettors (professionals and those who prepare correctly) can take advantage of moving lines and get better odds for their wagers. Taking the Watkins example, bettors who take the under now have 20 more yards of breathing room and a higher probability of success. The same goes for good players who play a poor Week 1 (ex. Saquon Barkley in Week 1 of 2020). Their futures will decrease due to the public all betting under their totals, and gives sharp bettors more space to work with when betting overs.

This tactic is known as fading the public and has a long track record of success.

Power Rankings vs. Power Ratings

Everyone sees Power Rankings just about everywhere you look – SportsCenter, the Herd, just about every website – and those are useful in their own right. The concept is simple, just a 1-32 list of the best team to the worst team. Maybe it’s based on metrics, maybe it’s based on the eyeball test, maybe it’s both.

Power Ratings differ quite a bit despite sounding similar. Ratings quantify the numerical advantage one team has over another based on past scores and season performance. Ratings are drawn exclusively from quantifiable metrics (though those metrics may differ person to person) and are used to help predict future scores and outcomes, rather than saying Team X is just better than Team Y and should win.

How to build your own Power Rankings

For those looking to rank teams 1-32 based on last season, the games ongoing this season, and looking quickly at the depth chart, you can do just that. However, it likely won’t serve as a useful tool when it comes to betting, especially against the spread; you’ll want to build (or find) a set of power ratings first. That way, you’ll have a more accurate and quantifiable justification to your rankings and remove potential biases.

To create these power ratings, begin with ranking the teams according to projected number of wins. This will give you a base to work with rather than working from scratch. Assign a number to each team, starting at the top with 16 and running down to the bottom where the last ranked team receives -16. From there, adjust the numbers– 16 through -16, with zero being the middle– based on projected point totals, defensive ranks, and personnel. If interested, look up formulas on expected point differentials to create a more pinpoint rating for each team.

Putting it together

Once you have your numbers, compare two teams (numbers in parentheses are hypothetical power ratings): Indianapolis (12) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-8).

The difference between these teams ratings, 4, is now your theoretical point spread. Add in a 2.5-point advantage for the home team (Los Angeles) for an adjusted point spread of 1.5 in favor of the Colts.

Now add in your factors (injuries, metrics, etc.) to fine-tune your spread. Derwin James is out for the season and creates a massive disadvantage for the Chargers’ defensive secondary (the numbers on this are worth looking up) and should benefit the Colts at least half a point. Your final spread for this game comes out to Colts -2 (-110) @ Chargers.

Now, take your projected spread of -2 and compare it to the Vegas lines. Say the opening line comes out to Colts -4.5 (-110) @ Chargers. That should be an easy bet, since our projected point total is -2 and we would take the Chargers to cover. The process will take some refining and new factors will emerge as the season goes on, but this is the basic process in handicapping your own NFL games.

Not only will this help you quantify point spreads and decide on feasible spreads, but it will help you dig deeper and find new metrics that create a new dimension of understanding for betting on the NFL.

2022 NFL Pre-season Power Rankings

Here were our initial 2022 – 2023 Power Rankings accompanied by their DraftKings Sportsbook Super Bowl odds at the time.

RankTeamSuper Bowl odds - August 30
1Buffalo Bills+550
2Kansas City Chiefs+1000
3LA Chargers+1400
4LA Rams+1200
5Tampa Bay Buccaneers+700
6Cincinnati Bengals+2200
7Green Bay Packers+1000
8Baltimore Ravens+2000
9San Francisco 49ers+1600
10Indianapolis Colts+2500
11Denver Broncos+1800
12Philadelphia Eagles+2200
13Minnesota Vikings+3500
14New Orleans Saints+4000
15Las Vegas Raiders+4000
16Dallas Cowboys+2200
17Arizona Cardinals+4000
18Miami Dolphins+4000
19New England Patriots+5000
20Tennessee Titans+4000
21Cleveland Browns+5000
22Pittsburgh Steelers+9000
23New York Giants+13000
24Carolina Panthers+13000
25Detroit Lions+15000
26Washington Commanders+7000
27Jacksonville Jaguars+13000
28New York Jets+13000
29Atlanta Falcons+20000
30Seattle Seahawks+15000
31Houston Texans+25000
32Chicago Bears+15000