NFL Power Rankings

View TheLines’ NFL Power Rankings each week throughout the 2024 – 2025 season. TheLines staff ranks all of the teams in the NFL each Monday and Tuesday. Not surprisingly, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers take the first two spots in our initial rankings. The New England Patriots find themselves in dead last heading into the season.

NFL Power Rankings

#

Team

Chg

1

KC Chiefs

While the next group of receivers ready to step up for Mahomes have some question marks and injury concerns, the Chiefs defense is fresh off a dominant Super Bowl run and returns plenty of key pieces. Matt Brown was the lone member of our staff to not have KC as the top team as he opted for Philly instead.                       

2

SF 49ers

Trading Brandon Aiyuk may be inevitable for John Lynch, as his office concentrates on potentially extending Deebo Samuel and working with Trent Williams to end his hold out.

3

DET Lions

With arguably the best offensive line in football protecting Jared Goff, and OC Ben Johnson back for one more ride, the Lions should put up points in bunches.

4

PHI Eagles

The Eagles added talent in key spots as they look to bounce back from a precipitous collapse to end last season. Matt Brown is the highest on Philly as he has them in the 1 slot.                     

5

BAL Ravens

Could the Ravens regress this year following the loss of stellar DC Mike MacDonald? Lamar Jackson still lacks receiving options, but Derrick Henry fortifies the backfield. 

6

HOU Texans

Doubling down on C.J. Stroud’s limitless potential, the Texans added Stefon Diggs and a slew of key pieces on both sides of the ball to aim for a stranglehold of the AFC South. 

7

CIN Bengals

Joe Burrow looks sharp after wrist surgery and his top receivers are back, even if they both are unhappy with their contract situations. 

8

BUF Bills

Matt Milano (biceps) suffered another brutal injury, leaving the Bills a bit more vulnerable on defense in their new era of run-heavy football. 

9

NYJ Jets

Aaron Rodgers has reportedly looked spry throughout training camp and the Jets added Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses at left and right tackle to protect the 40-year-old passer. 

10

DAL Cowboys

After posting one of the best receiving campaigns in NFL history, CeeDee Lamb is ready to call the front office’s bluff while holding out for a new contract. 

11

GB Packers

Jordan Love finished last season on a tear and his young receivers should be much healthier to start this campaign. 

12

MIA Dolphins

Mike McDaniels\\\’ squad has gotten off to a torrid start in consecutive seasons before fading down the stretch as cold weather becomes a bigger factor. 

13

ATL Falcons

With Kirk Cousins under center and a new coaching staff in place, the Falcons offense should be more balanced. Their secondary is bolstered by hard-hitting safety Justin Simmons. 

14

JAX Jaguars

Despite posting one of the highest turnover rates among qualifying quarterbacks to start his career, Trevor Lawrence received a handsome 5-year extension worth $275 million. 

15

CLE Browns

Health is the biggest question mark for the Browns as Nick Chubb works his way back from a traumatic leg injury and Deshaun Watson tries to get his nagging shoulder on track. 

16

LAR Rams

Faith in Sean McVay continues to rise after he coached an injury-plagued team with a poor offensive line to a 10-7 record last year. 

17

CHI Bears

The hype train is gaining momentum with the Bears appearing on Hard Knocks this summer and Caleb Williams drawing praise for his preseason performances. 

18

IND Colts

With Jonathan Taylor in condition, the Colts offense should be much more dynamic this year, if Anthony Richardson can stay healthy.

19

SEA Seahawks

The Pete Carroll era is over and new coach Mike McDonald has some great young pieces in the secondary to try and replicate his success with Baltimore’s defense last season. 

20

LAC Chargers

Justin Herbert has spent much of the preseason in a walking boot. But with a completely new coaching staff in place under Jim Harbaugh, there is reason for optimism for this woebegone franchise. 

21

PIT Steelers

With a brutal schedule in place, including a gauntlet of divisional games down the stretch, the Steelers will be hard pressed to extend Mike Tomlin’s streak of winning seasons.

22

TB Buccaneers

Dave Canales – now the Panthers head coach – resurrected Baker Mayfield’s career last season. Will the Bucs offense sustain success under new OC Liam Coen? 

23

NO Saints

A relatively unexciting team with aging foundational pieces on both sides of the ball, the Saints seem destined to maintain the status quo in Dennis Allen’s system. 

24

MIN Vikings

Aaron Jones comes over from the Packers to inject some life into Minnesota’s dormant running game. The Vikings’ secondary could be one of the worst units in the league.

25

ARI Cardinals

After punting on last season while Kyler Murray recovered from ACL surgery, the Cardinals could be surprisingly competitive in the balanced NFC. 

26

WAS Commanders

A total overhaul of the culture in Washington continues, as Jahan Dotson was traded to the rival Eagles. 

27

DEN Broncos

Turning the page from fading veteran Russell Wilson to rookie Bo Nix, the Broncos will look to set the table for the future under Sean Payton. 

28

LV Raiders

Antonio Pierce got the most out of a talent-deficient roster down the stretch last season and now with his interim tag removed, the pressure is on.

29

TEN Titans

Respected offensive line coach Bill Callahan left Cleveland to work for his son, Brian, and the Titans, as they look to shore up one of the worst units in the NFL last season. 

30

CAR Panthers

Bryce Young turned in one of the worst quarterback seasons in history in his rookie campaign. We’ll see if Dave Canales can help the No. 1 pick turn things around. 

31

NYG Giants

Malik Nabers is expected to immediately become the focal point of a Giants offense that has revolved around Saquon Barkley in recent years. 

32

NE Patriots

Expectations are the lowest for the Patriots since well before the Bill Belichick era, with a league-low 4.5 wins projected by oddsmakers.

How the rankings are created

The sports betting experts at TheLines file individual NFL Power Rankings each Monday morning throughout the pro football season. Brett Collson, Matt Brown, Nate Weitzer, Matt Burke, Stephen Andress, Bill Gelman, John Haslbauer and Mo Nuwwarah rank all 32 teams each week and we post the consensus rankings above.

Each person on staff at TheLines files their rankings based on week-to-week play in the NFL, providing a weekly snapshot as to how “powerful” each team is at certain points throughout the season.

Stay tuned for updates to our power rankings all season long! These can serve as a valuable tool for placing NFL futures bets or planning how to bet on NFL games.

Of course, you have to account for factors such as travel time, home field advantage, and injuries as the season progresses. Yet early in the season, it’s possible to go against the betting public by sticking to your own process.

Bettors tend to overreact to recent results and are very reactionary in an “update league” like the NFL. Therefore, the betting market shifts to these reactions.

If you stick with the raw data, i.e. metrics on offensive line play, a quarterback’s record at home, and turnover differential, you might be able to cash big early in the season before oddsmakers and the betting public adjust. Trust your data and stay one step ahead with a comprehensive Power Rankings system.

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How to handicap NFL games

What does it mean to “handicap” a game? At first, it might seem that you’ll be running advanced metrics and spitting out numbers and point spreads. In reality, handicapping is a fancy bettor’s term for preparing and researching. There’s dozens of game factors that need to be taken into account like injuries, matchups, and metrics but also market factors like line movement and public biases.

Surface-level factors

First are the surface-level factors that can determine a game like home field advantage (though in 2020, that was severely diminished), key injuries, and the weather. For injuries, don’t just browse the fantasy football injury report– a diminished offensive line or defensive secondary can be devastating to a team’s performance.

Traditionally, the home team is given a 2- or 3-point advantage for playing in their home city in front of their home fans. Even without fans in attendance, travel takes a toll on visiting teams and has some (albeit diminished) effect on the line. Also needed for consideration is the weather: rain, wind, and snow can hurt a pass-heavy offense and cold weather might hurt warm-climate teams. Teams playing at altitude (Denver) may also have an advantage over teams that don’t frequently play at altitude (Miami).

Strength of schedule is useful when looking at futures bet. The Patriots and Raiders have the most difficult schedules in 2023, based on the combined 2022 record/winning percentage of their opponents. NFC West teams will have it rough in 2023, as they will face AFC North teams. Most prognosticators predict that the AFC North is going to be a monster of a division with no easy outs. Be sure to factor in all division vs. division matchups when surveying the NFL landscape.

Deeper factors

Beyond those easily-identifiable factors are matchups, schemes, and metrics. If you aren’t a film junkie, don’t worry – there’s plenty of Twitter follows and websites that can help you break it down and make it easily understandable.

Look for size advantages in receivers and defensive backs; players like Mike Evans can make life difficult for a 5’ 8” corner and the Buccaneers might gameplan to exploit that advantage. Other positional advantages to keep in mind: pass rushers against inexperienced/struggling offensive tackles and athletic pass-catching tight ends against linebackers who struggle defending receivers.

Advanced metrics can be telling and expose weaknesses in teams, but with thousands of metrics out there, it can be difficult to tell which are really helpful. FOX Sports’ Warren Sharp is a great resource for finding advanced metrics that make significant differences in outcomes. A quick tab on stats worth paying attention to:

• Yards per play (rather than total yards)
• Expected points per drive (rather than points per game)
• Air yards per attempt (rather than passing yards thrown)
• 3rd down conversion

These numbers will break down the efficiency and effectiveness of an offense (or defense, if you’re going with allowed) and remove the “garbage time” numbers plenty of players can pile on. Contrary to the belief that stats never lie, stats can actually be the best liars when used incorrectly.

If you’ve really got a handle on the NFL game, a popular focus recently has been on coaches’ understanding of analytics and their willingness to utilize probability factors in their gameplan. Failing to use analytics and probability can cost teams victories. Examples include rushing on third and long, hoarding timeouts, settling for field goals inside the three yard line, etc. Older coaches who’ve rejected the use of modern analytics can move lines (especially over/unders) and are worth keeping tabs on.

Market factors

Outside of the game itself, bettors should understand how lines move and react to sharp bettors and the general public. One thing to remember about public betting: they are easily and drastically influenced by recency bias and non-sequitur trends.

Sharp bettors (professionals and those who prepare correctly) can take advantage of moving lines and get better odds for their wagers.

Power Rankings vs. Power Ratings

Everyone sees Power Rankings just about everywhere you look – SportsCenter, the Herd, just about every website – and those are useful in their own right. The concept is simple, just a 1-32 list of the best team to the worst team. Maybe it’s based on metrics, maybe it’s based on the eyeball test, maybe it’s both.

Power Ratings differ quite a bit despite sounding similar. Ratings quantify the numerical advantage one team has over another based on past scores and season performance. Ratings are drawn exclusively from quantifiable metrics (though those metrics may differ person to person) and are used to help predict future scores and outcomes, rather than saying Team X is just better than Team Y and should win.

How to build your own Power Rankings

For those looking to rank teams 1-32 based on last season, the games ongoing this season, and looking quickly at the depth chart, you can do just that. However, it likely won’t serve as a useful tool when it comes to betting, especially against the spread; you’ll want to build (or find) a set of power ratings first. That way, you’ll have a more accurate and quantifiable justification to your rankings and remove potential biases.

To create these power ratings, begin with ranking the teams according to projected number of wins. This will give you a base to work with rather than working from scratch. Assign a number to each team, starting at the top with 16 and running down to the bottom where the last ranked team receives -16. From there, adjust the numbers– 16 through -16, with zero being the middle– based on projected point totals, defensive ranks, and personnel. If interested, look up formulas on expected point differentials to create a more pinpoint rating for each team.

Putting it together

Once you have your numbers, compare two teams (numbers in parentheses are hypothetical power ratings): Indianapolis (12) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-8).

The difference between these teams ratings, 4, is now your theoretical point spread. Add in a 2.5-point advantage for the home team (Los Angeles) for an adjusted point spread of 1.5 in favor of the Colts.

Now add in your factors (injuries, metrics, etc.) to fine-tune your spread. Derwin James is out for the season and creates a massive disadvantage for the Chargers’ defensive secondary (the numbers on this are worth looking up) and should benefit the Colts at least half a point. Your final spread for this game comes out to Colts -2 (-110) @ Chargers.

Now, take your projected spread of -2 and compare it to the Vegas lines. Say the opening line comes out to Colts -4.5 (-110) @ Chargers. That should be an easy bet, since our projected point total is -2 and we would take the Chargers to cover. The process will take some refining and new factors will emerge as the season goes on, but this is the basic process in handicapping your own NFL games.

Not only will this help you quantify point spreads and decide on feasible spreads across different betting sites and apps but it will help you dig deeper and find new metrics that create a new dimension of understanding for betting on the NFL.

NFL Pre-season Power Rankings 2024 – 2025

Here were our initial 2024 – 2025 Power Rankings accompanied by their Super Bowl odds from August 26.