NFL Power Rankings

View TheLines’ NFL Power Rankings each week throughout the 2024 – 2025 season. TheLines staff ranks all of the teams in the NFL each Monday and Tuesday. Notable risers this week include the Steelers (up 4 spots) and the Broncos (also up 4 spots). Pittsburgh is now at No. 12. The Broncos are now at No. 21. Kansas City holds firm at No. 1.

NFL Power Rankings

#

Team

Chg

1

KC Chiefs

With both teams missing key skill players, the Chiefs dominated the 49ers from start to finish in a Super Bowl rematch, proving that they’re clearly still the class of the league.

2

BAL Ravens

Derrick Henry is listed around +200 to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns or rushing yards this year and his MVP odds are down to +2800 at BetMGM after a fourth straight monster game. 

1

3

DET Lions

Jared Goff is down to +700 in the MVP market at BetMGM after completing 85.3% of his passes for 887 yards with a near-perfect 153.1 rating over Detroit’s last three wins.

2

4

MIN Vikings

While they gave up the game-winning drive to the Lions, the Vikings were right there with a verified contender, so their 5-0 start was clearly no fluke. 

2

5

BUF Bills

The back half of the Bills schedule is loaded with top-tier matchups. Josh Allen and his new top target, Amari Cooper, should have this offense humming by then.                

2

6

GB Packers

The Packers might have found a trustworthy kicker in Brandon McManus. Romeo Doubs is making plays after his one-game absence and Green Bay beat a tough Texans squad without forcing a turnover. 

2

7

HOU Texans

Joe Mixon (ankle) gives Houston’s offense a huge lift and this team will be very tough to stop when Nico Collins (hamstring) returns. 

1

8

PHI Eagles

Coming off a bye, the Eagles re-asserted their status in the NFC East by crushing the Giants with Saquon Barkley (176 rushing yards, TD) leading the way. 

2

9

SF 49ers

Brock Purdy turned it over three times with his top three receivers injured, and the Niners were bullied by the Chiefs on their home turf. They will try to get to 4-4 before their Week 9 bye.

5

10

CIN Bengals

Beating a backup quarterback and a woeful Browns team, 21-14, is far from impressive, as the Bengals went 2-for-13 on third downs and managed a meager 223 total yards on the road. 

1

11

TB Buccaneers

Mike Evans (hamstring) is expected to play Monday night against the Ravens and the Bucs will certainly hope to have him in Week 8 for a rematch with the Falcons. 

1

12

PIT Steelers

Russell Wilson immediately gave the Steelers offense a vertical dynamic by providing the touch throws that Justin Fields is seemingly incapable of making. 

4

13

SEA Seahawks

A mini-bye week helped the Seahawks shore up some issues before handling the Falcons on both sides of the ball. Seattle is home against the Bills and Rams over the next two weeks. 

3

14

WAS Commanders

Jayden Daniels (ribs) appeared to avoid a serious injury and the Commanders wisely held him out for the remainder of a 40-7 thrashing of the lowly Panthers.                    

3

15

CHI Bears

We’re not sure if Jayden Daniels will suit up in Week 8, but a litmus test at Washington will show us whether the Bears are a top-half team, or if they’ve simply feasted on an easy schedule.

16

LAC Chargers

Injuries are piling up for the Chargers again with Gus Edwards, Asante Samuel Jr., and Ja’Sir Taylor on I.R., while Kristian Fulton (hamstring), Ladd McConkey (hip), and Quentin Johnston (ankle) are hobbled. 

3

17

ATL Falcons

The Atlanta defense has done nothing to disrupt opposing offenses with the lowest sack rate (2.67%) in the NFL. 

4

18

NYJ Jets

Davante Adams should help the Jets offense become more dynamic after his relatively quiet debut. Struggles on both sides of the trenches might be a bigger issue for Jeff Ulbrich and crew.

4

19

DAL Cowboys

It won’t be easy for the Cowboys to climb out of their early-season hole with a primetime matchup on tap at the 49ers followed by four games against teams with winning records. 

1

20

ARI Cardinals

The wildly inconsistent Cardinals are home in three of their next four games with their sole road tilt coming against the struggling Dolphins. 

21

DEN Broncos

Pat Surtain II (concussion) could return in Week 8, but the Broncos have a cupcake matchup against the Panthers before they take on the mighty Ravens. 

4

22

JAX Jaguars

The Jaguars are 2-0 the past two seasons with the unprecedented advantage of waiting in London for a traveling opponent. Beating the Patriots in that spot doesn’t prove much.

4

23

LAR Rams

The Rams survived a feisty Raiders squad without Cooper Kupp (ankle), who could now be ready to return this Thursday against Minnesota. 

24

NYG Giants

Losing Andrew Thomas (foot) for the season left the Giants unable to protect Daniel Jones in a blowout home loss to the Eagles. 

1

25

IND Colts

Anthony Richardson is miles away from Joe Flacco in terms of passing efficiency. The Colts seem committed to last year’s No. 4 overall pick, though, so expect their offense to struggle in upcoming matchups at Houston and Minnesota.

1

26

CLE Browns

Upgrade the Browns with Nick Chubb (knee) back and Jameis Winston set to start at quarterback now that Deshaun Watson (Achilles) is out for the year. 

2

27

NO Saints

Without Rashid Shaheed (knee) and Chris Olave (concussion), and multiple offensive linemen, Spencer Rattler looked absolutely horrible last Thursday as the Saints appeared to quit on floundering head coach Dennis Allen. 

28

LV Raiders

Antonio Pierce is now forced to go back to Gardner Minshew with Aidan O’Connell (thumb) out indefinitely. The Raiders should be more competitive with the veteran starting.

1

29

TEN Titans

With both Will Levis (shoulder) and Mason Rudolph struggling, the Titans could sink to the bottom of the standings and eye a quarterback in next year’s draft. 

30

MIA Dolphins

Hope is on the horizon with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) expected to practice this week and potentially return to face the Cardinals in Week 8. 

1

31

NE Patriots

Drake Maye has flashed plenty of positive signs over his first two starts, putting up 37 points behind arguably the league’s worst offensive line.

1

32

CAR Panthers

Down several defensive starters and a couple of key offensive linemen, the Panthers have disintegrated into a doormat.

2

How the rankings are created

The sports betting experts at TheLines file individual NFL Power Rankings each Monday morning throughout the pro football season. Brett Collson, Matt Brown, Nate Weitzer, Matt Burke, Stephen Andress, Bill Gelman, John Haslbauer and Mo Nuwwarah rank all 32 teams each week and we post the consensus rankings above.

Each person on staff at TheLines files their rankings based on week-to-week play in the NFL, providing a weekly snapshot as to how “powerful” each team is at certain points throughout the season.

Stay tuned for updates to our power rankings all season long! These can serve as a valuable tool for placing NFL futures bets or planning how to bet on NFL games.

Of course, you have to account for factors such as travel time, home field advantage, and injuries as the season progresses. Yet early in the season, it’s possible to go against the betting public by sticking to your own process.

Bettors tend to overreact to recent results and are very reactionary in an “update league” like the NFL. Therefore, the betting market shifts to these reactions.

If you stick with the raw data, i.e. metrics on offensive line play, a quarterback’s record at home, and turnover differential, you might be able to cash big early in the season before oddsmakers and the betting public adjust. Trust your data and stay one step ahead with a comprehensive Power Rankings system.

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How to handicap NFL games

What does it mean to “handicap” a game? At first, it might seem that you’ll be running advanced metrics and spitting out numbers and point spreads. In reality, handicapping is a fancy bettor’s term for preparing and researching. There’s dozens of game factors that need to be taken into account like injuries, matchups, and metrics but also market factors like line movement and public biases.

Surface-level factors

First are the surface-level factors that can determine a game like home field advantage (though in 2020, that was severely diminished), key injuries, and the weather. For injuries, don’t just browse the fantasy football injury report– a diminished offensive line or defensive secondary can be devastating to a team’s performance.

Traditionally, the home team is given a 2- or 3-point advantage for playing in their home city in front of their home fans. Even without fans in attendance, travel takes a toll on visiting teams and has some (albeit diminished) effect on the line. Also needed for consideration is the weather: rain, wind, and snow can hurt a pass-heavy offense and cold weather might hurt warm-climate teams. Teams playing at altitude (Denver) may also have an advantage over teams that don’t frequently play at altitude (Miami).

Strength of schedule is useful when looking at futures bet. The Patriots and Raiders have the most difficult schedules in 2023, based on the combined 2022 record/winning percentage of their opponents. NFC West teams will have it rough in 2023, as they will face AFC North teams. Most prognosticators predict that the AFC North is going to be a monster of a division with no easy outs. Be sure to factor in all division vs. division matchups when surveying the NFL landscape.

Deeper factors

Beyond those easily-identifiable factors are matchups, schemes, and metrics. If you aren’t a film junkie, don’t worry – there’s plenty of Twitter follows and websites that can help you break it down and make it easily understandable.

Look for size advantages in receivers and defensive backs; players like Mike Evans can make life difficult for a 5’ 8” corner and the Buccaneers might gameplan to exploit that advantage. Other positional advantages to keep in mind: pass rushers against inexperienced/struggling offensive tackles and athletic pass-catching tight ends against linebackers who struggle defending receivers.

Advanced metrics can be telling and expose weaknesses in teams, but with thousands of metrics out there, it can be difficult to tell which are really helpful. FOX Sports’ Warren Sharp is a great resource for finding advanced metrics that make significant differences in outcomes. A quick tab on stats worth paying attention to:

• Yards per play (rather than total yards)
• Expected points per drive (rather than points per game)
• Air yards per attempt (rather than passing yards thrown)
• 3rd down conversion

These numbers will break down the efficiency and effectiveness of an offense (or defense, if you’re going with allowed) and remove the “garbage time” numbers plenty of players can pile on. Contrary to the belief that stats never lie, stats can actually be the best liars when used incorrectly.

If you’ve really got a handle on the NFL game, a popular focus recently has been on coaches’ understanding of analytics and their willingness to utilize probability factors in their gameplan. Failing to use analytics and probability can cost teams victories. Examples include rushing on third and long, hoarding timeouts, settling for field goals inside the three yard line, etc. Older coaches who’ve rejected the use of modern analytics can move lines (especially over/unders) and are worth keeping tabs on.

Market factors

Outside of the game itself, bettors should understand how lines move and react to sharp bettors and the general public. One thing to remember about public betting: they are easily and drastically influenced by recency bias and non-sequitur trends.

Sharp bettors (professionals and those who prepare correctly) can take advantage of moving lines and get better odds for their wagers.

Power Rankings vs. Power Ratings

Everyone sees Power Rankings just about everywhere you look – SportsCenter, the Herd, just about every website – and those are useful in their own right. The concept is simple, just a 1-32 list of the best team to the worst team. Maybe it’s based on metrics, maybe it’s based on the eyeball test, maybe it’s both.

Power Ratings differ quite a bit despite sounding similar. Ratings quantify the numerical advantage one team has over another based on past scores and season performance. Ratings are drawn exclusively from quantifiable metrics (though those metrics may differ person to person) and are used to help predict future scores and outcomes, rather than saying Team X is just better than Team Y and should win.

How to build your own Power Rankings

For those looking to rank teams 1-32 based on last season, the games ongoing this season, and looking quickly at the depth chart, you can do just that. However, it likely won’t serve as a useful tool when it comes to betting, especially against the spread; you’ll want to build (or find) a set of power ratings first. That way, you’ll have a more accurate and quantifiable justification to your rankings and remove potential biases.

To create these power ratings, begin with ranking the teams according to projected number of wins. This will give you a base to work with rather than working from scratch. Assign a number to each team, starting at the top with 16 and running down to the bottom where the last ranked team receives -16. From there, adjust the numbers– 16 through -16, with zero being the middle– based on projected point totals, defensive ranks, and personnel. If interested, look up formulas on expected point differentials to create a more pinpoint rating for each team.

Putting it together

Once you have your numbers, compare two teams (numbers in parentheses are hypothetical power ratings): Indianapolis (12) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-8).

The difference between these teams ratings, 4, is now your theoretical point spread. Add in a 2.5-point advantage for the home team (Los Angeles) for an adjusted point spread of 1.5 in favor of the Colts.

Now add in your factors (injuries, metrics, etc.) to fine-tune your spread. Derwin James is out for the season and creates a massive disadvantage for the Chargers’ defensive secondary (the numbers on this are worth looking up) and should benefit the Colts at least half a point. Your final spread for this game comes out to Colts -2 (-110) @ Chargers.

Now, take your projected spread of -2 and compare it to the Vegas lines. Say the opening line comes out to Colts -4.5 (-110) @ Chargers. That should be an easy bet, since our projected point total is -2 and we would take the Chargers to cover. The process will take some refining and new factors will emerge as the season goes on, but this is the basic process in handicapping your own NFL games.

Not only will this help you quantify point spreads and decide on feasible spreads across different betting sites and apps but it will help you dig deeper and find new metrics that create a new dimension of understanding for betting on the NFL.

NFL Pre-season Power Rankings 2024 – 2025

Here were our initial 2024 – 2025 Power Rankings accompanied by their Super Bowl odds from August 26.