When considering betting on point spreads and point totals, it may be difficult to picture what is being projected. A useful tool to help clear the air is implied point totals, or simply the projected final score.
For many, looking at a scoreboard (or a projected one) can help contextualize the spread and over/under totals. This will ultimately help you make more informed bets.
You can calculate implied point totals with simple math using the over/under and point spread set by sportsbooks. Here, we’ll teach you how.
NFL Implied Point Totals
Team | Implied Team Total | Opponent | H/A | Spread | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lions | 30 | Jaguars | Home | -13 | 47 |
49ers | 28 | Seahawks | Home | -6.5 | 49.5 |
Dolphins | 26 | Raiders | Home | -7.5 | 44 |
Eagles | 26 | Commanders | Home | -3.5 | 48.5 |
Ravens | 26 | Steelers | Away | -3 | 48.5 |
Texans | 25 | Cowboys | Away | -7.5 | 42 |
Rams | 25 | Patriots | Away | -5 | 44 |
Bills | 24 | Chiefs | Home | -2.5 | 45.5 |
Packers | 24 | Bears | Away | -6 | 41 |
Jets | 24 | Colts | Home | -4 | 44 |
Chargers | 24 | Bengals | Home | -1.5 | 47 |
Saints | 23 | Browns | Home | -1 | 44.5 |
Bengals | 23 | Chargers | Away | 1.5 | 47 |
Vikings | 23 | Titans | Away | -6 | 39.5 |
Commanders | 23 | Eagles | Away | 3.5 | 48.5 |
Steelers | 23 | Ravens | Home | 3 | 48.5 |
Broncos | 23 | Falcons | Home | -2.5 | 44 |
Chiefs | 22 | Bills | Away | 2.5 | 45.5 |
Seahawks | 22 | 49ers | Away | 6.5 | 49.5 |
Browns | 22 | Saints | Away | 1 | 44.5 |
Falcons | 21 | Broncos | Away | 2.5 | 44 |
Colts | 20 | Jets | Away | 4 | 44 |
Patriots | 20 | Rams | Home | 5 | 44 |
Raiders | 18 | Dolphins | Away | 7.5 | 44 |
Bears | 18 | Packers | Home | 6 | 41 |
Cowboys | 17 | Texans | Home | 7.5 | 42 |
Titans | 17 | Vikings | Home | 6 | 39.5 |
Jaguars | 17 | Lions | Away | 13 | 47 |
NFL Week 11 Point Spreads And Over/Unders
How to calculate implied point totals
To figure these, you’re going to need to apply some math, but don’t sweat – it’s simple.
First, we’ll need to take the projected point total (over/under); for example, the Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills Week 1 showdown has an over/under set at 48 points. Take the total and divide it in half. This puts our current implied score at 24-24.
Next, consider the spread. The Bills are favored by 6 points in this matchup, implying that they will beat the Cardinals in Week 1. Divide the point spread in half, to give you 3 points.
Take the halved point spread and add that number to the favored team (Bills) and subtract that number from the underdog (Cardinals). The implied score for this Week 1 matchup is Bills 27, Cardinals 21.
How to apply the numbers
Once you have your implied point totals, you can better evaluate point spread and point totals given by sportsbooks. Many sports handicappers work in reverse, starting by setting a point total for each team based on their metrics. If handicapping isn’t your thing, no worries – you can still apply implied point totals to your betting strategy.
For example, take the Monday Night Football odds from Week 1:
- 49ers -4.5 (O 43)
- Jets +4.5 (U 43)
By using the above steps, we get an implied score of 49ers 23.75, Jets 19.25. Of course, NFL scores don’t operate in fractions, so we can better express this as 49ers 24, Jets 19. If a bettor believes San Francisco can hold New York to under 19 points or is capable of scoring 24 points or more, then it will lead them to take the 49ers odds -4.5 (-110).
Similarly, if a bettor sees the 49ers capable of scoring 24 or more points and believes the Jets can score 20 or more points, then they would bet the over.
This technique can be applied to all sports using the same process. However, the implied total is best-suited for football and basketball, since the point spread and point totals tend to vary more than baseball, hockey, and soccer.
DFS And Fantasy Football Application
When considering Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) plays, implied totals are a great tool. Win or lose, teams that score lots of points have valuable players for DFS, including many quarterback-receiver “stacks” that may give players an advantage.
For example, the Lions and Rams Week 1 matchup has an over/under of 51 points and an implied score of Lions 27, Rams 24. Even though L.A. is projected to lose, they have the 12th-most implied points for the week, the highest number among the underdogs.
With a decent implied point total, DFS players can look to Matt Stafford as a possible sneaky target and stack with leading receivers Puka Nacua and/or Cooper Kupp.
Implied point totals can also be used when evaluating price and value on players. For example, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott may come with a high DFS price tag Week 1 against Cleveland after he enjoyed a career season in 2023. However, the Cowboys have just a 20 implied point total – one of the NFL’s lowest this week. If you expect Prescott to be a popular play, he may be worth fading.