Handicapping the NFL is a complex process fraught with different variables that bettors must weigh. Team strength, various matchups, injuries, travel, and rest advantages and disadvantages all factor into betting NFL odds. Regarding the latter, bettors have long held to the axiom that NFL bye weeks are worth roughly a point.
Well, a fresh study from Michael J. Lopez and Thompson Bliss — two researchers who work for the NFL — may give pause to that idea. Their research revealed that NFL bye weeks have, in fact, likely been overly baked into point spreads.
Let’s go over their findings on NFL bye weeks and rest advantages to see what bettors should keep in mind for this year’s betting strategies.
Rest Advantage in the NFL
We’ll sum up the actionable findings of the study below, but for readers curious to see the entire thing, here’s a link.
For important context, Lopez and Bliss separated their research into two buckets of games: 2002-2010 and 2011-2023. Prior to 2011, the NFL changed the rules on allowable time spent on football activities during the bye.
Lopez and Bliss found that the bye week advantage conferred an estimated +2.2 points per game prior to 2011. After the rule change, that dropped to +0.31.
As they note, this suggests that the main advantages of the bye have little to do with rest, but rather time to prepare and practice for the upcoming opponent.
Most importantly for bettors, Lopez and Bliss found that blindly betting teams off a bye used to show a profit (greater than 55% cover rate from 2002-2010). However, since 2011, home teams off a bye have only covered a shockingly low 44.6% of the time (away teams 52.7%). Thus, the teams gaining the most benefit from rest are doing horribly against the spread, suggesting the bye edge has been more than accounted for — if anything, an overcorrection has occurred.
The betting market gives an estimated +0.97 — essentially a 1-point boost — for teams off a bye, in line with conventional wisdom. However, Lopez and Bliss estimate the actual advantage closer to +0.3.
Home-field advantage has also declined in value from +2.69 to +1.83. That’s old news, but if you’re still giving three points for home field, it’s time to adjust.
Mini-Bye And Monday Night Football
In addition to NFL bye week advantages, Lopez and Bliss also honed in on smaller rest edges. Teams with an extra 2+ days of rest due to Thursday Night Football (the “mini-bye”) and teams with a one-day rest deficit/advantage due to Monday Night Football were also considered.
Their results found the mini-bye confers a small advantage of +0.48 points across the study. Crucially, though, they don’t forecast that to continue due to the NFL enacting similar rules as the bye week days off in 2020.
The advantage of facing a team that played on Monday Night Football is estimated at around +0.2.
Collectively, all of these studies essentially say that if you’re using extra rest of any kind as a foundational reason for making a bet, your angle is probably already baked into the number. If anything, if the market has overcorrected, bettors may find decent spots to fade overvalued teams with extra rest.
Upcoming betting opportunities
Your newfound knowledge about NFL bye weeks and rest advantages won’t come in handy Week 1. But if you’re looking to find the best NFL Week 1 odds, see below. Click on any of the odds to make a wager at betting apps in your area. And don’t forget to lock in the best NFL Week 1 bonus codes while you’re at it.