Golf Betting Guide 2021

Odds, Strategy, And How To Bet

golf betting odds

The 2021 PGA Tour season is underway following a 2020 campaign which saw phenomenal golf betting interest.

The PGA Tour was the first of the major North American sporting organizations to return to play last year. The added attention from sports fans and bettors led to the rapid addition of betting markets at most major sportsbooks.

This page will look at the various ways to bet on golf, which can be done for roughly 50 of 52 weeks in a given calendar year. We’ll highlight weekly golf betting odds and the top sites, and break down the many available betting markets. Finally, we discuss various strategies and areas of research when betting on a golf tournament, and spotlight 2021’s four scheduled majors.

Due to the nature of golf – including the impact of Mother Nature, extensive traveling, and course history – it’s a sport in which research can be used heavily to find the right player on the right week.

Golf betting odds this week

Best golf betting sites

How to bet on golf

Outrights and futures bets

Outright betting in golf is simply wagering on a specific player to win the tournament. Because of the difficulty of a player winning a tournament in fields that are often around 150, outright odds are much higher than someone betting on team sports is used to.

Strategy: Because the return on investment can be so high, you can bet on numerous players and still make a nice profit if one of your players wins. Betting on a couple players in each “tier” can be effective. For example, favorites (+2500 or lower), contenders (+2500 – +5000), longshots (+5000 or higher). Betting $10 on six players in that scenario would be just $60 invested. Even if you bet on a heavy favorite at +1000, he would win back $100 for a strong profit.

Top 5, 10, 20

A less risky version of outright betting is wagering on a player to finish in the top 5, 10 or 20 in a tournament, depending on what your sportsbook offers. While it doesn’t offer the high odds that outright betting does, it is much less volatile and rewards steady performances from your golfers.

Strategy: If you prefer betting on placement instead of outright, you’ll likely need a slightly larger bankroll to see decent profit. The market for placement betting is completely different than outright. You’re looking for more consistent golfers who may not have the firepower to win most weeks but provide steady results with a high percentage of made cuts.

Matchups

There are many forms of matchup betting on golf depending on your sportsbook.

Head-to-head: These can be week-long or single-round bets that put two players against each other with odds on who will post the better score. This provides a unique market where you can bet against a player you may be down on for the week compared to his pricing.

Nationality: Many sportsbooks will provide lines on which countryman will perform the best for the tournament. If you’re high on a certain player but don’t want to jump into an outright or top 5 bet, you can get decent value on a nationality bet depending on who is in the field.

3-Ball: An increasingly popular way to bet on golf because it provides a way to gamble on each round. 3-Ball betting typically uses the pairings in the tournament and gives odds on which player in the group will perform the best in the round. This can provide for entertaining viewing if you bet on a player in a featured group on TV.

First-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader is a niche market but seems to be growing. It is still not available on every sportsbook.

Strategy: It’s much easier to lead a single round than win an entire golf tournament, but odds for first-round leader mostly remains the same as outright odds. Keeping an eye on weather conditions is key to pick a player who tees off in calm conditions.

Live golf betting

Golf has live betting like most sports, except it allows you to put in much more research with ample time between rounds.

Strategy: Most live betting odds on the outright winner stay true to the leaderboard, but the market often still favors the well-known and highly ranked players. Taking a look at statistics and jumping on a player that is in contention but underperforming in a category he or she usually excels in can be a good strategy in live betting on golf.

Golf betting strategies

Bankroll management

Bankroll management can be tricky in golf due to the alarming potential of profit when outright betting. It’s important to stay reasonable and stick to a weekly limit on how much you bet on a tournament. Picking an outright winner is hard and you will often go weeks without getting a winner. But the profit of just one winner will typically make up for multiple weeks and more, especially if it wasn’t a heavy favorite. Pairing your outright bets with top 10 or top 20 bets is a good way to get some return on investment instead of going all-in on outright winners.

Injury reports

Injuries aren’t as common in golf as most sports, so there’s typically not much news on injuries most weeks. But there can be some withdrawals on Wednesday evenings or Thursday mornings, so it’s good to stay up-to-date on any lingering injuries that could come into play and ruin your bet.

Course form and recent form

Form will be talked about endlessly when taking in any content from golf betting experts. Not only is recent form important like it is in most sports, but the unique-to-golf course form is also a key factor. Finding players who perform well at a course in the past is an element that should always be considered when betting. Augusta National is a course that strongly favors course history due to its tricky nature, but an easier, simpler course like TPC Deere Run shouldn’t weigh course history as strongly.

Schedules

Golf requires a lot of traveling at times and has a very exhausting schedule at some points in the year. Keeping an eye on players traveling on short rest from overseas or someone who has played multiple weeks in a row can be a simple way to fade players who might be getting too much love from the casual eye.

Line movement

Most normal golf tournaments don’t have much line movement throughout the week leading up to the tournament, but some sportsbooks will have more favorable odds than others. If you see someone early in the week that might get a push to lower odds because of talk from the media or a storyline, it’s smart to jump on it quickly. Otherwise, it’s usually fine to take your time.

Situational betting

Golf has a lot of external factors to keep in mind each week. Weather is something you should always look at before betting. There are players who excel in easy conditions and there are those who do better when the wind is blowing and good scores are harder to come by. Getting ahead of the curve by checking the forecast and taking players who fit it is important. Motivating factors from week-to-week can also play a role – FedExCup points needed, a win to get a Masters invitation, local support etc.

Golf betting stats: Which ones matter?

Thanks to websites and podcasts specializing in golf betting content, knowing the golf stats that matter each week has gotten increasingly easier for bettors. But there’s still plenty of individual research to be done that can help you get ahead of the market on a player that might be peaking at the right time. Generally, the strokes gained statistics are the golden measure in golf. But certain courses will favor “strokes gained: off-the-tee,” certain courses will favor “strokes gained: approach” and certain courses will favor “strokes gained: putting.” Most courses will favor that statistic year-to-year, but it can change depending on weather and how the course is set up.

It is generally smarter to favor players who excel in ball striking statistics – driving and approach shots – due to their ability to run away with a tournament if they have a good putting week.

Golf majors: odds and trends

Masters Tournament

The 2021 Masters takes place April 8-11, returning to its regular position on the PGA Tour schedule. It is always held at Augusta National in Augusta, Georgia, and is one of the most famous courses in the world.

Recent winners’ odds: Dustin Johnson (2020): +800, Tiger Woods (2019): +1400, Patrick Reed (2018): +5000, Sergio Garcia (2017): +3000

The Masters favors course history more than any other event on the PGA Tour based on Data Golf’s course history tool. Creative ball-strikers excel, as evidenced by recent winners like Tiger Woods, Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson.

PGA Championship

The PGA Championship will run May 20-23 at Kiawah Golf Resort (South Course) on Kiawah Island, S.C.

Recent winners’ odds: Collin Morikawa 2020: +3000, Brooks Koepka (2019, 2018): +1100, +2000, Justin Thomas (2017): +3000.

The PGA Championship is typically the easiest setup of the four majors and the most similar to a regular PGA Tour setup. That means if conditions allow, the tournament favors long and high hitters. Rory McIlroy won the 2012 PGA Championship here at 13-under par.

US Open

The US Open is scheduled to return to its standard spot on the golf schedule from June 17-20. Torrey Pines (South) hosts the major for the first time since 2008, when Woods at minus-1 in a playoff.

Recent winners’ odds: Bryson DeChambeau (2020): +2500, Gary Woodland (2019): +7000, Brooks Koepka (2018, 2017): +2000, +4000.

The US Open is typically the toughest test of golf in the world each year. The USGA sets it up to ideally be a challenge to break par, which is often the case when looking at the winning score. Length and accuracy off the tee have been a key statistic in recent years as the courses have gotten longer.

The Open Championship

The Open Championship was canceled for 2020 but returns to the schedule for July 15-18. Royal St. George’s Golf Club in England will remain the host the 2021 Open Championship after losing the 2020 Open.

Recent winners’ odds: Shane Lowry (2019): +6600, Francesco Molinari (2018): +2500, Jordan Spieth (2017): +1400.

The Open Championship is always held at a classic links-style golf course that often has windy and tough conditions. If the weather is calm, players can go low and any style of player can win. Windy conditions favor solid ball strikers who can keep the ball low. It’s one of the few golf tournaments where long hitters don’t have much of an advantage.