NFL betting trends let you see how teams do in specific situations. Unfortunately, these trends are mostly meaningless. They don’t win games or pay the rent.
Team trends, especially, are useless (examples of that later). They are fluff added to game analysis to convince you that they matter. Many are nothing more than an interesting tidbit. Don’t be sold by touts who use trends as marketing tactics to please and engage fans and bettors.
Digital and social media is part of the ways these trends are filtered to fans, as it’s been reported that more than 80% of fans check social media while enjoying their favorite game on TV.
When you see trends provided by various handicappers, journalists, media outlets, newsletters or database queries, ask yourself: “Does this make sense?” Also, for any type of technical analysis that references a trend, it should have extended situations to support its premise.
There is some technical analysis that can be useful when analyzing fundamental indicators and league-wide situations. But many trends should be thrown away, as other factors like injuries, weather or line movement may have affected the ATS result.
Here are some (of the many) NFL Week 16 trends that are being tossed around that you can throw away as you evaluate the matchups and Week 16 NFL lines. Playoff implications are at stake in the final two weeks of the regular season, and some of the odds are inflated towards those teams needing to win and the top teams in pursuit of the playoffs and Super Bowl.
1. Oakland at LA Chargers (-7 )
TREND: The Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against an opponent that plays the Denver Broncos next.
What does a meaningless trend like this have to do with this week’s match-up against the Raiders? More nonsense team trends that is unfortunately part of a quality newsletter publication at VSiN. This line has bounced around between 5.5 and 7 and the look-ahead line was Chargers -6.5.
The Raiders blew their game last week in a 20-16 last-second loss to the Jaguars in the final home game at the Oakland Coliseum. The Raiders (6-8) are now on 0-4 SU losing skid. The Chargers (5-9) enter on a 1-4 SU/ATS slide including the 26-24 loss at Oakland on a Thursday night in Week 10 with three interceptions by Philip Rivers costing the Chargers in defeat.
2. Baltimore (-10) at Cleveland
TREND: The Ravens are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
Of course they are. Baltimore (12-2) has won 10 straight games, with its last loss coming to the Cleveland Browns (6-8) on Sept. 29. Baltimore is also a league-best +215 in point differential and dominating the league in rushing at 202 YPG on 36 rushing attempts per contest led by Lamar Jackson.
The lines continue to rise on the Ravens, and bettors keep betting on Baltimore and winning as the Ravens have covered seven of their last eight games. The Ravens are not only one of the most popular bets this week, but also taking among the most money at DraftKings Sportsbook.
3. Dallas (-2) at Philadelphia
TREND: The UNDER is 23-10 in Eagles home games under head coach Doug Peterson.
The Cowboys (7-7) and Eagles (7-7) play essentially a playoff elimination game with the winner in position to secure the NFC East. Dallas flew over the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7 and Dallas has the much stronger offensive profile that includes the No. 1 offense (434 YPG and 6.5 yards per play) and No. 2 pass attack at 300 yards per game. Dallas is 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven games at Philadelphia. Will that trend continue? What about this total trend? December divisional Unders are 10-5 (67%) this season and 57% since 2003. The weather calls for low-40-degree temperatures and light winds in Philadelphia for this NFC East first place showdown.
4. Green Bay at Minnesota (-5.5)
TREND: The UNDER is 13-2 in the Vikings last 15 home games against division opponents.
This is the market game of the week, and another huge division duel on Monday Night Football. This trend might actually have a little merit, as it makes more sense that a stronger team and defense in recent seasons would have more familiarity with division opponents. The total has not moved, but the money is flowing in on the Vikings as the line rises up to 5.5. Minnesota (10-4) can get redemption against Green Bay (11-3) and move into a first place tie, but the Packers have the tiebreaker and a Green Bay win a Detroit next week would secure the NFC North for the cheese heads. The Vikings scoring differential is +119 this season while the Packers is +47. Both sharp and public money is supporting the Vikings in what will be one of the most bet games of the week.