BetMGM Reveals Biggest Liabilities For 2022 NFL QB, RB, WR Props

Written By Brett Gibbons on August 4, 2022
NFL Player Props

BetMGM released a list of their biggest liabilities for season-long NFL player props to TheLines this week. That includes which players are drawing the highest volume of bets for certain props this year and which have garnered the highest dollar amount. We’ll look at three offensive prop categories below.

While some may look at the numbers to automatically “fade the public,” we recommend looking at them for informational purposes and not to provide a catch-all betting strategy.

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What is a Sportsbook Liability?

Simply, a liability is how much money a sportsbook could owe on booked bets. The biggest liabilities at books represent the most-bet players and which players connects with the most handle. The liability ultimately reflects bets that would cost the sportsbook the most money. That can differ from handle due to certain players having longer odds.

All figures below are accurate as of Aug. 2.

Biggest Liabilities: Passing Props

With his new addition in star receiver Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr clean sweeps the liability board in both NFL player props for passing yardage and passing touchdowns. Carr owns the highest ticket count (22.1%) and handle (30.3%) to finish with the most passing yards this season at BetMGM. He set a career mark in passing yards (4,804) in 2021, finishing fifth.

Also new to Carr this season are head coach Josh McDaniels and offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi. It’s tough to figure out how pass-heavy Las Vegas will be this coming season under green leadership, though the New England Patriots played a run-oriented offense under McDaniels the last four seasons.

Carr also commands the highest ticket count (15.1%) and handle (16.0%) to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns, though the disparity between Carr and the field isn’t as heavy. A clear route exists to an increase in his passing touchdowns this season. Adams led the NFL in receiving touchdowns in 2020 (18) and ranked fifth a season ago (11), both years with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. He also led the NFL in touchdowns inside the 10 yard line in ’20 and finished second only to Cooper Kupp this past season. Carr ranked 12th in the NFL in passing touchdowns inside the 10.

Carr is tied with Joe Burrow for fifth-shortest odds to lead in passing yards () and comes in 10th at BetMGM to lead in passing touchdowns ().

Rising sophomore Trey Lance has the highest handle to lead the NFL in interceptions thrown this year (44.2%). His ticket percent sits considerably lower (20.7%), indicating larger bets coming in on Lance.

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Biggest Liabilities: Rushing Props

While Tennessee Titans workhorse Derrick Henry leads ticket percentage for the most rushing yards this coming season (20.6%), Jonathan Taylor leads the group in handle (43.1%). Taylor also leads in overall liability for BetMGM. The circumstances flip, though, with Taylor leading tickets for tops in rushing touchdowns (14.8%), while Henry leads in handle (25.4%) and is the biggest liability.

Henry returns from a Jones fracture that caused him to miss a notable chunk of last season. Before the injury, Henry was on pace to blow away the rest of the league in touches and production. He placed 10th in rushing attempts (219) and ninth in yards (937) while playing in fewer than half the season’s games (8). Instead, Taylor led the NFL in rushes (332), yardage (106.5 per game) and touchdowns (18).

Expect another high-usage season for Henry this year. The Titans offloaded star receiver AJ Brown during the NFL Draft, leaving them bereft of receiving options.

Taylor is the favorite at BetMGM to lead the NFL in rushing yards () and a slight favorite to lead in rushing touchdowns (). Henry comes behind him in both markets at to lead in rushing yards and in touchdowns.

Find more NFL Player Prop betting analysis with TheLines

Biggest Liabilities: Receiving Props

Coming off a historic season, Kupp dominates ticket (19.5%) and handle percent (28.1%) to finish the regular season with the most receptions in the NFL. However, Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson holds the highest ticket rate to lead the NFL in receiving yards (11.9%) while CeeDee Lamb leads in handle (23.9%) and is BetMGM’s biggest liability.

Jefferson () is second on odds boards to lead the NFL in receiving yards, behind Kupp, while Lamb () is fourth.

Unsurprisingly, Cincinnati Bengals breakout star Ja’Marr Chase leads ticket (14.0%) and handle percent (16.3%) to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns. Chase hauled in 81 passes a season ago, but a ridiculous 13 of those went for touchdowns (second only to Mike Evans, who scored 14 TDs on 71 receptions). He falls behind Kupp, Evans, and Travis Kelce on odds boards at .

What may come as a surprise is Chase is not the largest liability for the receiving touchdowns prop – that title belongs to Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Detroit Lions. St. Brown didn’t find the end zone until Week 12 of the 2021 season, but also didn’t play on more than 80% of offensive snaps until Week 10. However, he finished the season with touchdowns in five of his last six games, including his final four. He is a longshot on odds boards to take the 2022 crown.

Should the Lions find themselves playing from behind as much as they have the past few seasons, passing volume will remain high.

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Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons