Potential Home Run Bets For BetMGM MLB Grand Slam Jackpot This Weekend

BetMGM Sportsbook has an intriguing promo for MLB home run bets. The Grand Slam Jackpot offers bettors the opportunity to win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets. Read on to learn more about this promo. We’ll also go over some possible home run bets from each slate, featuring the likes of Adam Duvall, Jose Siri, and Jurickson Profar.

Key Info On Grand Slam Jackpot MLB Home Run Bet Promo

The Grand Slam Jackpot adds a bit of parimutuel betting twist to home run bets.

BetMGM is posting $50,000 on bonus bets. Bettors will make their selections on home run bets for games Friday through Sunday in a given weekend (only the first qualifying $10+ bet counts toward the promo). If that batter hits a grand slam on that day, bettors cash in on the promo. Bettors can qualify for the promo multiple times in one weekend.

The parimutuel part comes from the fact that the $50,000 gets split among all bettors who placed a qualifying winning wager. This includes multiple batters hitting grand slams — everyone who bet on all of those batters splits the $50,000 equally.

Therefore, a game theory aspect comes into play. Similar to playing NFL Survivor, we don’t just want to pick batters who will hit grand slams. We want to pick batters who will hit a grand slam and whom nobody else is betting. Good targets for these home run bets could include players who:

• Play for bad teams
• Bat low in the order
• Don’t have a lot of power but are playing in favorable conditions/parks for home runs

Statistically speaking, there’s about a 50/50 chance of a grand slam being hit on any given full slate of games. That translates to an almost 90% chance of one hit at some point over the weekend. Most of the time, the $50,000 is up for grabs if you can find the right guy.

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Possible Targets For Home Run Bets This Weekend

We’ll throw out a couple of options for each $50,000 jackpot slate.

Friday

Adam Duvall () gets to face a lefty in Cleveland starter Logan Allen, who has allowed a .455 SLG to right-handed batters in his career. Duvall will be swinging for the fences and should have some guys on base in front of him, given how good the Braves’ offense is. He’s also hammering the ball so far with a .370 xwOBA.

In the sixth-best park for home runs, he has a decent chance to send one out.

Nobody is going to be looking to bet Corbin Carroll right now (), given he’s ice-cold. But he does get a pretty decent matchup against Emerson Hancock, who hasn’t shown the stuff to avoid loud contact (5.32 xERA).

Saturday

Jonathan Cannon has gotten off to a decent start for the White Sox, but he’s still a pitcher without any real history of meaningful minor-league success. Jose Siri strikes out far too much but has decent power (career .199 ISO). He might make sense here, with the added benefit of getting to potentially hit against a dreadful White Sox bullpen at some point.

Make sure the weather clears up here, though. Friday’s forecast features rain, along with 18 mph winds howling in from the outfield.

Josh Winckowski has moved back to the rotation, where he allows a .479 SLG in his career. Much like Duvall and Siri, Christopher Morel is a slugger who doesn’t get cheated on his swings. He’s off to a slow start but slugged .508 last year and is still hitting the ball hard with a .340 xwOBA. Perhaps he can lift one over the Green Monster.

Sunday

Hunter Goodman has multiple holes in his swing, but he also has 70-grade raw power and slugged .690 in a small sample at Triple-A this season. The team called him up as an injury replacement for Nolan Jones, and as long as Jones remains out, Goodman’s worth a look here.

Astros starter Hunter Brown has gotten off to a horrendous start, with blowups against Kansas City and Texas. Drop him into Coors, and his 44.4 career Hard Hit% could be combustible. The trick will be getting any Rockies on base ahead of the long flies.

It sounds like the Phillies will get Taijuan Walker up to the parent club to make his 2024 debut on Sunday. He’s been quite good at preventing the long balls recently, but he’s reportedly struggling to break 90 mph with his fastball velocity.

Pitchers who lose confidence in their stuff tend to nibble, which could mean walks. And walks at the top of the order could mean men on base for Jurickson Profar. The light-hitting utility man is swinging a hot bat early, but few are likely noticing. That should make him a sneaky play for home run bets.