bet365 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Josh Allen Moves Ahead Of Patrick Mahomes

For the first time this season, Patrick Mahomes is not favored in NFL MVP odds at bet365 Sportsbook. Instead, Josh Allen is atop the betting board at Josh Allen +700 on Bet365 after his standout performance against the Jaguars on Monday night. Discover the latest odds movement for this market and reasoning below.

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nfl MVP odds: is Josh allen primed to win his first?

After opening the campaign at +800, the second-shortest price on the board, Allen wasn’t exactly an afterthought among the NFL MVP odds. But he’s blown through preseason projections, manufacturing the NFL’s highest EPA+CPOE composite, which combines EPA per dropback and the completion percentage over expectation statistic.

Against Jacksonville, he became the first quarterback in league history to complete 75% of his passes, throw for at least four touchdowns, have no turnovers, take no sacks, and lead his team in rushing yards during a single game.

Over the last decade, every NFL MVP but two finished the regular season in the top two in EPA+CPOE. Aaron Rodgers led the league in his recent MVP wins. Mahomes accomplished the same feat in 2022.

Nevertheless, the Bills’ signal-caller has faced below-average defenses (Jacksonville, Arizona, and Miami). Buffalo’s schedule over the next few weeks is no cakewalk, traveling to Baltimore and Houston before returning home versus the Jets. If you buy into the notion that Allen’s high-end efficiency will regress, there could be value elsewhere.

Per the MVP odds table, Mahomes is directly below Allen at Patrick Mahomes +270 on Bet365. Despite tallying nearly league-average efficiency, his name isn’t going anywhere if the Chiefs remain undefeated.

For reference, Mahomes ranks No. 13 in EPA+CPOE, sandwiched between Baker Mayfield and Justin Fields. His five air yards per dropback (No. 31 among qualified QBs) are a product of Kansas City emphasizing its short passing offense. He won’t rise much in the latter category unless that changes.

watch: betmgm trader on josh allen’s nfl MVP odds

Biggest MVP Risers & Fallers

While the Jets’ dominant victory in Week 3 came against the lowly Patriots, Rodgers looked the part, going 27-of-35 through the air for 281 yards and two touchdowns). His odds for NFL MVP are Aaron Rodgers +5000 on Bet365, shortening from his +2500 preseason price tag.

Rodgers has generated the eighth-best EPA+CPOE, ranking behind the Vikings’ Sam Darnold. The journeyman QB opened at +20000 among NFL MVP odds but is currently +2500. Darnold is still a longshot, but the Vikings’ undefeated record certainly helps his chances. He also isn’t expected to miss time with a knee bruise that he suffered against the Texans.

Conversely, Joe Burrow saw his MVP odds balloon from +900 to Joe Burrow +1600 on Bet365 with Cincinnati falling to Washington. Only six of the 225 teams that began 0-3 in the Super Bowl era have made the playoffs. Burrow’s odds are not worth investing in unless you believe the Bengals will mount an unprecedented run.

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