Eli’s NFL Week 9 Best Bets: Will Giants Upset Commanders?
As the odds for NFL Week 9 near kickoff, I’ll handicap point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals while searching for the best NFL promos across the betting industry. The TNF odds for the Jets vs. Texans, along with the Giants vs. Commanders, pique my interest juxtaposed with my model and projections. I’ll add other NFL bets once they’re in my sportsbook account.
Click any of the odds below to place a bet. These are the best odds available on betting apps in your state.
potential NFL bets: jets moneyline (to win straight up)
Good or bad, I’m always transparent with my picks, which you will find in our free sports betting Discord. This football season has been my toughest, going 15-21-3 (-3.84 units). I’ve had a profitable run during the last two years at TheLines.com, finishing 101-65-2 (+33.06 units).
Whether you tail my NFL bets or find this article helpful when isolating your favorite sides and totals, hopefully, you understand the importance of bankroll management amid bumpy stretches and avoid the urge to chase your losses.
Without further ado, let’s begin.
Situational Spot Favors Jets?
For those unfamiliar with situational spots, they attempt to uncover conditions that teams have exceeded or underperformed their normal level of play — relative to the moneyline or spread. For one, the Jets have dropped five straight games. Meanwhile, the Texans are 6-2 SU but are missing their two best weapons. This matchup represents a buy-low, sell-high opportunity on the surface.
Nevertheless, there’s a case to be made that the market has already accounted for the spot. Aaron Rodgers and Co. opened as short home underdogs before the line drifted to -2 on Tuesday morning.
Don’t forget about the lengthy injury report. New York may be without both starting safeties and linebacker C.J. Mosley (neck). Given this short prep week, interim coach Jeff Ulbrich and the rest of the staff are also disadvantaged.
Conversely, over the last three weeks, C.J. Stroud ranks No. 23 among qualified signal-callers in the EPA+CPOE composite. His struggles correlate with the absence of Nico Collins (hamstring), one of the league’s best wideouts at creating separation.
During Stroud’s glamorous rookie campaign, his most inefficient showing came against these Jets. Both trends could intensify with veteran Stefon Diggs (knee) put on the shelf. But considering the aforementioned market movement, I’ll pass for now.
Injury Report
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Watch: BetMGM Trader Discusses Jets Vs. Texans
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nfl bets: giants +3.5 (to lose by three points or fewer or win)
Fade The Commanders?
Entering the regular season, I placed a wager on Jayden Daniels to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s blown through my expectations, manufacturing the highest EPA+CPOE composite rating among qualified QBs. The Commanders’ defensive improvement has followed suit. Over the last month, they’ve ranked No. 14 in the success rate allowed, excluding plays with turnovers.
More impressively, they’ve registered the NFL’s highest pressure rate during this span. It includes a two-game stretch without stud defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, who was placed on injured reserve.
But coming off the Hail Mary victory against Chicago, Dan Quinn’s team could get caught looking ahead to an arduous set of opponents, with the Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys on deck.
Enter New York, failing to cover in Pittsburgh on Monday night despite box-score indicators expecting the contrary. Moreover, the Giants would’ve presumably defeated the Commanders in Week 2 had placekicker Graham Gano avoided an injury on the opening kickoff.
They lost by three points, failing to cash in on an extra point, a pair of two-point conversion attempts, and a fourth down right before the two-minute warning. The latter play stemmed from their inability to attempt a possible game-winning field goal.
Final Thoughts: NFL Week 9 Bets
After starting 3-5 ATS, with consecutive losses, I’ll plug my nose with the first of my NFL bets. The Giants are at the bottom of the barrel regarding their market rating. However, I’ll buy low on them in hopes that the oft-maligned Daniel Jones can provide another efficient outing against a secondary that still grades below the league average.
To boot, the current spread is above the key number of a field goal, adding more perceived value. The look-ahead line opened at Washington -3.
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