Eli’s NFL Week 8 Best Bets: Will Jaguars Upset Packers Sunday?
As the odds for NFL Week 8 near kick-off, I’ll handicap point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals while searching for the best NFL promos across the betting industry. The odds for Rams vs. Vikings and Jaguars vs. Packers pique my interest compared to my model and projections. I’ll add more NFL bets to this column once they’re in my sportsbook account. Let’s dig in.
Click any of the odds below to place a bet. These sportsbook prices are the best available in your state.
NFL bets: rams +3 (to lose by two or fewer points or win)
Good or bad, I’m always transparent with my picks, which you can view in our free sports betting Discord. This year has been my toughest, going 12-20-3 (-6.79 units). I’ve had a profitable run over the last two seasons at TheLines.com, finishing 101-65-2 (+33.06 units).
Whether you’ve tailed my NFL bets or find this article helpful when sifting through the odds board, hopefully, you recognize the importance of bankroll management amid bumpy stretches and avoid the urge to chase your losses.
Vikings’ Regression En Route?
Road favorites are 15-0 against the spread since Week 5. Couple that with a short week of prep, and Minnesota appears to be worth betting on — at least on the surface. However, Kevin O’Connell’s bunch is coming off its most physical game of the year, falling to the Lions in the waning seconds on Sunday.
Then, there’s Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. While Darnold remains a viable candidate among NFL MVP odds, his -1.0 EPA per dropback against Detroit’s blitz packages speaks volumes ahead of this matchup. Remember that the Lions accomplished this feat without stud pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson (tibia/fibula), who is likely out for the remainder of the season.
Conversely, the Rams tally the eighth-highest blitz rate and employ heavy zone coverage, another of Darnold’s weaknesses.
Among qualified QBs, he owns a top-five completion percentage and passer rating against man looks. But Darnold settles well below league average in both categories against zone defenses.
As for Los Angeles’ offense, Matt Stafford and Co. have a blueprint to fend off Brian Flores’ blitz-happy unit. In Week 7, Detroit used the run-pass option (RPO) and play-action pass over the middle on early downs to keep Minnesota’s pass rush at bay.
A healthy ground game can help manufacture these same opportunities. The Rams have just that in Kyren Williams, one of the NFL’s most elusive rushers after contact. If everything goes according to plan, bettors should see that the Vikings, which boast the top-ranked defensive DVOA, will continue to slip up.
Injury Report
| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||
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Final Thoughts: NFL Week 8 Bets
I’m selling high on the 5-1 Vikings in a potential letdown spot on short rest. Cooper Kupp’s return to the lineup has come at the perfect time. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t recommend wagering on the Rams below the key number of a field goal.
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watch: betmgm trader discusses vikings at rams
NFL bets: jaguars +4.5 (to lose by four or fewer points or win)
Speaking of situational spots, Green Bay is tasked with a difficult one. After the Packers’ emotional victory over Houston, they travel to Jacksonville before facing the Lions in a pivotal NFC North clash.
Although Jacksonville is coming off consecutive games in London, they delivered a 17-point shellacking versus the Colts after an identical scenario last season. I’m not concerned with the time adjustment from overseas.
Like the Vikings, the Packers’ defense is bound to decline after profiting from the most takeaways across the NFL. For context, Jeff Hafley’s unit has surrendered the third-highest passing success rate, excluding turnover-worthy plays.
Granted, Trevor Lawrence has failed to notch an above-average QB grade since the opener, stemming from 21 attempts. That said, surrounded by a healthy group of receivers, particularly tight end Evan Engram, who returned in Week 5, I expect the Jags to take full advantage.
The reinsertion of Tyson Campbell, Jacksonville’s best cover corner, is a bonus against Jordan Love and Green Bay’s explosive passing attack.
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