Eli’s NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Will Saints Upset The Falcons?
As the odds for NFL Week 10 near kickoff, I’ll handicap point spreads and totals while searching for the best NFL promos in the industry. For starters, Bengals at Ravens for TNF odds and Falcons at Saints pique my interest — compared to my model and projections. I’ll add other NFL bets once they’re in my sportsbook account.
Below are the best odds in your state. You can also explore promo codes from the best sports betting sites.
potential NFL bets: Bengals +6 (to lose by five or less or win)
Good or bad, I’m always transparent with my picks, which you will find in our free sports betting Discord. This football season has been my toughest, going 15-24-3 (-6.99 units). I’ve had a profitable run during the last two years at TheLines.com, finishing 101-65-2 (+33.06 units).
Whether you tail my NFL bets or find this article helpful when isolating your favorite sides and totals, hopefully, you understand the importance of bankroll management amid bumpy stretches and avoid the urge to chase your losses.
Without further ado, let’s begin.
Will Cincinnati Buck The Trend?
NFL bettors who regularly assemble moneyline parlays may have struck gold on Sunday. Week 9 favorites combined to go 14-1 straight up, marking just the third time over the last 15 seasons when favorites won 14 or more games with just one loss.
However, there’s a path for the Bengals to reverse course. Joe Burrow torched the Ravens’ secondary in their first meeting this season, tallying 8.8 yards per attempt (YPA) with five touchdowns. Baltimore boasts the league’s top-rated run defense, but it’s surrendered the fourth-most EPA per dropback.
Cincinnati’s injury report must clear up to take full advantage. Offensively, wideout Tee Higgins and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. could be sidelined. The same goes for nose tackle BJ Hill, who’s helped the Bengals’ defense deliver a top-10 rating in EPA and success rate allowed over the last month.
During this span, Lou Anarumo’s bunch has dominated a few teams (Raiders, Browns, and Giants) that are well below average in my power ratings. But versus the Eagles, which I have power-rated as a top-five unit, Cincinnati yielded 6.7 YPP in a blowout loss.
A similar result could transpire against Lamar Jackson, who is tied atop the NFL MVP odds board. The duel-threat Jackson is primed to outdo both of his award-winning campaigns, manufacturing the seventh-highest explosive play rate among qualified quarterbacks.
Given the Bengals’ injuries, I’ll wait for a better number in a must-win spot. Use the injury tool below to monitor Higgins and Co.
tnf Injury Report
| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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NFL bets: saints +4 (to lose by three or less or win)
How Will New Orleans Respond?
After dropping seven consecutive games, the Saints fired Dennis Allen on Monday. Since 2020, teams that dismiss their head coach midseason are 9-3 against the spread (75%) in the first tilt with an interim replacement. Below are the results from each contest.
| Season | Team | Coach Fired | Spread | SU | ATS |
| 2024 | Jets | Robert Saleh | +1.5 | L | L |
| 2023 | Chargers | Brandon Staley | +12.5 | L | W |
| 2023 | Panthers | Frank Reich | +3.5 | L | W |
| 2023 | Raiders | Josh McDaniel | -1.5 | W | W |
| 2022 | Broncos | Nathaniel Hackett | +12.5 | L | W |
| 2022 | Panthers | Matt Rhule | +10 | L | L |
| 2022 | Colts | Frank Reich | +4 | W | W |
| 2021 | Jaguars | Urban Meyer | +6 | L | L |
| 2021 | Raiders | Jon Gruden | +5 | W | W |
| 2020 | Texans | Bill O’Brien | -6.5 | W | W |
| 2020 | Lions | Matt Patricia | +3 | W | W |
| 2020 | Falcons | Dan Quinn | +3.5 | W | W |
Their success could stem from a boost in optimism, personnel changes, schematic adjustments, or a mix of these factors. No matter the formula, they’ve consistently outperformed the market’s expectations.
Prime Situational Spot
Like Cincinnati, New Orleans is managing many injuries on top of what it’s already endured. Wideouts Chris Olave and Cedrick Wilson Jr., cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, and offensive lineman Lucas Patrick missed Wednesday’s practice. The Saints also dealt stud cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders before Tuesday’s trade deadline.
Nevertheless, I believe this game qualifies as a buy-low, sell-high opportunity. For those unfamiliar with situational spots, they attempt to uncover conditions in which teams have exceeded or underperformed their normal level of play relative to the odds.
Given New Orleans’ losing streak, its market rating is at the bottom of the barrel. Conversely, Atlanta has won five of its last six matchups, four by six points or fewer. The first victory was against the Saints, and it benefited from two defensive scores.
Granted, Olave’s status is unknown following his second concussion in 2024. Even so, Alvin Kamara and New Orleans’ rushing attack has a plus matchup, with the Falcons letting up the league’s second-highest rushing success rate.
Luckily for them, the Cowboys’ inept ground game failed to exploit this weakness in Week 9. I’ll reluctantly trust Derek Carr and Co. to deliver the contrary result, especially with the spread above the key number of a field goal.
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