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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Published at October 14, 2024
Week 6 Monday Night Football sees two AFC East teams on losing streaks trying to save their seasons. With the Bills having lost to Baltimore and Houston and the Jets back from London with losses to Denver and Minnesota, this matchup has the intensity. The winner of this game could be huge for who wins the division down the road. Looking to bet on the game? Our staff has voted the Underdog promo code the No. 1 offer for Monday Night Football.
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Jets At Bills Preview
There are two big questions coming into this game, plus the questions of whether the travel back to London will hurt the Jets and the firing of Robert Salah. Teams coming back from London without a bye week hasn’t proven to be reliably detrimental, and the extra day should help as well. That said, the two big questions are both under center.
Is Aaron Rodgers Washed?
Rodgers is 21st by Dropback EPA and 27th by Success Rate so far this season. He has the 5th worst Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) this season despite being in the bottom 10 in average Air Yards of his passes. In other words, he’s throwing short, he’s not completing those passes, they’re not moving the chains much, and the offense isn’t scoring points.
The decision to trade for Rodgers never made any sense - Rodgers was 23rd by EPA and 22nd by Success Rate as a Packer in his last season - but the wheels have fully come off the wagon now. The Jets need a better QB than Rodgers, and they won’t get one.
The other problem is that the terrible passing game is bleeding into the rushing game. The Jets are 27th by Rush offense EPA, in part because Rodgers isn’t making teams pay for stacking the box. If Rodgers was better, Breece Hall would have more running lanes, but he doesn’t.
Is Josh Allen Good To Go?
The Bills QB slammed his head hard into the turf on Sunday. Fortunately, he stayed in the game, but his status will be crucial. He needs to play a lot better than he did on Sunday, going 9/30 through the air. Being healthy enough to throw the ball more efficiently, and to trust himself to run, will be critical.
The other part of this is that the Jets' pass defense is substantially better than their rush defense. The Jets are 6th against the Pass by EPA and 15th on rushes, which should bring the Bills closer to their preferred offensive style. If the Bills can lead early and keep themselves out of obvious pass situations, they’ll be in great shape. Allen being healthy and a viable passing option will matter, or else the Jets will just stack the box and neuter James Cook.
Prospects
The Bills have a bigger advantage in offensive performance so far (4th versus 23rd by EPA) than the Jets do defensively (7th versus 8th). The Jets offense is the only unit in this game that is not currently in the Top 20, let alone the Top 10. The Bills should win.
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