Best UFC 296 Odds: Colby Covington vs. Leon Edwards; Paddy Pimblett vs. Tony Ferguson

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Written By Ben Fowlkes | Last Updated
ufc 296 odds

UFC 296 odds for Saturday night’s event at T-Mobile Arena have defending welterweight champion Leon Edwards as a slight favorite over challenger Colby Covington in the main event.

In the UFC 296 co-main event, defending men’s flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja is a slight favorite over Brandon Royval, who he beat via submission the last time they fought.

We’ll dive into full odds and analysis of the UFC 296 fight card, but first here’s a look at the best UFC 296 odds and best sportsbook promo codes for Saturday’s event. Click on any of the links below to head to betting sites with the best UFC odds.

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UFC 296 Main Card

Welterweight Title Bout

Leon Edwards – Champion () vs. Colby Covington – Challenger ()

Flyweight Title Bout

Alexandre Pantoja – Champion () vs. Brandon Royval – Challenger ()

Rest of Main Card

Shavkat Rakhmonov () vs. Stephen Thompson ()

Tony Ferguson () vs. Paddy Pimblett ()

Josh Emmett () vs. Bryce Mitchell ()

UFC 294 Prelims

Alonzo Menifield () vs. Dustin Jacoby ()

Irene Aldana () vs. Karol Rosa ()

Cody Garbrandt () vs. Brian Kelleher ()

Casey O’Neill () vs. Ariane Lipski ()

UFC 294 Early Prelims

Tagir Ulanbekov () vs. Cody Durden ()

Andre Fili () vs. Lucas Almeida ()

Martin Buday () vs. Shamil Gaziev ()


Early prelims, 6:30 pm ET, ESPN+

Prelims, 8 pm ET, ESPN2/ESPN+

Main card, 10 pm ET, ESPN+ pay-per-view


Edwards has yet to face any fighter not named Kamaru Usman in his brief time as champ, but those two title fights did demonstrate how thoroughly Edwards has rounded out his overall game. He still prefers to stand and fight at range, and with his size and reach that’s usually a successful strategy for him. But his wrestling has clearly improved, both defensively and offensively. He’s also much more comfortable in the clinch now, which could be key here.

Covington is and always has been a wrestler first and everything else second. His striking is mostly meant to set up his takedowns. He’s got a bottomless gas tank, which allows him to set an extremely high pace without fear that he’ll tire as the fight wears on. His ability to overwhelm opponents with activity, even if most of it isn’t a threat to end the fight, is actually one of his best offensive weapons.


If Covington is allowed to set the pace and dictate where the fight happens, he could very well win this. He’s mostly a decision fighter, with very few finishes in recent years, but his style does lend itself to pulling away early on the scorecards. Edwards will have to shut down Covington’s wrestling without spending the whole fight on the defensive. The good news for the champ is that, when Covington can’t wrestle his way to victory, he typically doesn’t have much of a plan B.

Method of Victory


Pantoja showed off some of the best parts of his game the last time he fought Royval, back in 2021. The champ won that bout with a second-round rear-naked choke submission, which is one of his favorite finishes due to how adept he is at taking an opponent’s back.

Royval is the kind of fighter who thrives in high-intensity chaos. His fights rarely go to decision, which is uncommon for the 125-pound class. He likes to fight with a wide-open, aggressive style, though that also leaves him vulnerable to counter attacks at times.


Pantoja is the better submissions grappler, and he knows it. He wants to get Royval down, overwhelm him on the mat, and force him to give up his back. If Royval can’t find a way to make Pantoja dance to his tune this time, it’ll likely be a short night for him.

Method of Victory

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson

Rakhmonov is undefeated in 17 fights and has never once seen the judges’ scorecards in his pro career. That’s almost unheard of in this era, and it’s a testament to just how good he is. Thompson can be a tricky opponent for many people, with his karate style and excellent footwork, but Rakhmonov feels like a uniquely bad stylistic matchup for him.

Method of Victory

Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett

This one is tough to call for reasons that don’t exactly reflect well on either man. On one hand, Ferguson seems well past his prime at this point. He was a brilliant, creative fighter once, but now he’s a 39-year-old man who hasn’t won a fight in over four years. On the other hand, Pimblett looked very vulnerable in his last outing. The UFC has been trying to serve him up hand-picked opponents, and he still almost found a way to lose. Pimblett is the most hittable opponent Ferguson has had in years – if only he could rediscover the ability to capitalize on it.

Method of Victory

Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell

Emmett is coming off two straight losses, but they were against two of the most dangerous fighters in the division. Mitchell was badly exposed in his loss to Ilia Topuria, but is now trying to climb back up the ladder and prove he’s more than just a one-trick pony with good jiu-jitsu. Emmett should be a tough out, but he does leave himself open to submissions at times. 

Method of Victory