UFC 292 Odds: Sterling vs. O’Malley, Weil vs. Lemos Betting Angles

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Written By Ben Fowlkes | Last Updated
ufc 292 odds

The UFC is at Boston’s TD Garden on Saturday night for UFC 292, a fight card that includes two title fights on the main card. Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley for the men’s bantamweight title serves as the headliner, with Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos as the co-main event. Two fights that, according to the UFC 292 odds, favor the champions far more than the challengers.

We’ll take a detailed look at all the UFC 292 odds below, complete with full analysis of the pay-per-view event. But first, here’ a look at the best sportsbook promo codes ahead of the fights. Click on any of the links below to head to the best sports betting odds.

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UFC 291 Main Card

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley

Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos

Ian Garry vs. Neil Magny

Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

Da’Mon Blackshear (+180) vs. Mario Bautista (-220)

UFC 292 Prelims

Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin

Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh

UFC 292 Early Prelims

Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva

Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz


Early prelims on ESPN+, 6:30 p.m. ET
Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET
Main card on ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET


It was less than four months ago that Aljamain Sterling defended his 135-pound title in a five-round fight against former two-division champ Henry Cejudo. Now he’s back to do it again, this time against flashy contender Sean O’Malley, and the quick turnaround seems at least partially against his will.

Sterling initially pushed back against the idea of getting back in the cage so quickly, and it’s hard to blame him. Simply preparing for a five-round fight is an ordeal, to say nothing of actually winning one against an opponent as good as Cejudo. Sterling complained of a banged up body (his shins were “mushy” as recently as three months ago, he said) and mounting pressure from the UFC to hurry up and fight again anyway.

The pressure eventually won out, but the biggest variable in this matchup could very well turn out to be Sterling’s physical and mental state after three title fights in less than a year. 

O’Malley has plenty of things going for him. He’s a tall, long fighter for the weight class. He manages distance well and has surprising power in his strikes. We’ve never seen him look awed by the moment, even in fights where everyone but him seemed to think he was in over his head. But we’ve also never seen him against a grappler the caliber of Sterling. Does he have an answer for the champ’s ground game? Possibly. We just don’t have any evidence of it as yet.


A fresh, healthy Sterling should beat O’Malley. But O’Malley is a live dog here precisely because there’s ample reason to think that’s not the version of Sterling we’ll get. O’Malley is good at getting opponents to fight his kind of fight, which would be a potential disaster for Sterling here. If O’Malley is going to pull off the upset, his best chance is a stoppage inside the distance. He’s never gone five rounds before, and Sterling is practically an expert at it by now.

Main Event Method of Victory Odds


Zhang Weili has been in the UFC for five years now and recently began her second run as 115-pound champion, and in that time she’s only been beaten by one person. Granted, that person – former champ Rose Namajunas – beat her twice. But still, Weili has everything it takes to be a dominant force in this division if she continues to progress at the frightening rate we’ve seen thus far.

Amanda Lemos, on the other hand, is still something of an unknown quantity. She has power in her punches, but isn’t as fast as Weili. She has a submissions arsenal when she needs it, but maybe not the wrestling chops to force the issue against the elite fighters in the weight class. Lemos isn’t bad anywhere, but Weili is actively very good everywhere. The question then is with what, exactly, can Lemos hope to threaten the champ?


One big punch from Lemos could always change Weili’s night. But what seems far more likely is that Weili will come storming out and take over the fight with her quickness and her relentless output, as usual. If Lemos can’t slow her down or back her up, she’s in for a rough night of work.

Co-Main Event Round Betting


Ian Garry vs. Neil Magny

Garry is an undefeated Irish fighter who, at times, likes to style himself as the new Conor McGregor. Magny is a journeyman’s journeyman, but in the sense that he truly knows his craft and is a hardened professional who doesn’t get a ton of shine on his own. Magny is stepping up here as a late replacement, but he’s still not someone you want to overlook. A comparison of skill and athleticism favors the younger, flashier Garry. But there aren’t many fighters who’ve ever had an easy night against Magny.

Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

Munhoz is a dangerous striker who often doesn’t fare well when he lets fights go the distance. Vera is the kind of guy whose natural meanness has served him well in the fight game, though he occasionally starts too slow. It might be the toughest bout to call on the entire card, though Vera deserves the slight edge just based on his experience in high-level fights. A three-rounder means a good chance of it going to the scorecards, though, so he has to get right to work here.

Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista

Speaking of late replacements, Blackshear is stepping in on only a few days’ notice after fighting and winning just last weekend. Sometimes that can be to a fighter’s benefit, since he’s already in shape and close to weight and now doesn’t have much time to stress. It also doesn’t give Bautista much time to adjust to a major stylistic change, going from former champ Cody Garbrandt to a guy who just pulled off the rarely seen twister submission last Saturday. 


Chris Weidman is returning after two years on the shelf following a gruesome broken leg. Here he faces Brad Tavares, otherwise known as exactly the kind of good-but-never-great middleweight he used to trounce in his prime. That prime is now in the rearview mirror, but these are two tough old dogs who will have a hard time finishing each other, so the decision prop looks good. 

Best of luck wagering on UFC 292 odds.