Best UFC 291 Odds: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2, Main Card, Prelims Betting Angles

Written By Ben Fowlkes | Last Updated
ufc 291 odds

UFC 291 is in Salt Lake City on Saturday night, putting the mostly fictional but still very fun BMF title up for grabs in a lightweight rematch between fan favorites. It’s Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2. In the co-main event, former middleweight champ Alex Pereira moves up a division to face former light heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz in what UFC 291 odds imply will be a close one.

We’ll dive into full UFC 291 betting and analysis below, but first let’s take a look at the best sportsbook promo codes ahead of the fights. Click on any of the links below to head to the best sports betting odds.

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UFC 291 Main Card

Dustin Poirier () vs. Justin Gaethje ()

Jan Blachowicz () vs. Alex Pereira ()

Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira POSTPONED

Tony Ferguson () vs. Bobby Green ()

Michael Chiesa () vs. Kevin Holland ()

UFC 291 Prelims

Gabriel Bonfim () vs. Trevin Giles ()

Derrick Lewis () vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima ()

Roman Kopylov () vs. Claudio Ribeiro ()

UFC 289 Early Prelims

C.J. Vergara () vs. Vinicius Salvador ()

Matthew Semelsberger () vs. Uros Medic ()

Miranda Maverick () vs. Priscila Cachoeira ()


Early prelims on ESPN/ESPN+, 6:30 p.m. ET
Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET
Main card on ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET


The last time Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje fought was in 2018, back when both men had a lot fewer miles on the odometer. Poirier won that bout via fourth-round TKO after staying mobile and chipping away as Gaethje tried to pressure him in close. 

Gaethje was a much more predictable fighter back then, and Poirier seemed to have scouted him well. Even so, Gaethje’s power and resiliency, plus his willingness to keep coming forward no matter what’s waiting for him there, did present some problems for Poirier at times.

Poirier still seems to be the fighter with more in his toolbox. He paces himself well, doesn’t rattle under fire, and can draw upon a range of attacks depending on what look Gaethje shows him. Still, even in fights he wins Poirier has a bad habit of getting rocked once or twice. Gaethje’s punching power is always a threat, and he only needs to catch Poirier once to change the whole fight. Poirier got several reminders of that the first time they fought, but staying disciplined and sticking to his game plan paid off in the end.


If it’s just a question of one man’s skills against another’s, Poirier wins this almost every time. Gaethje is durable enough to hang in there even as Poirier is out-landing him, and his punching power gives him a chance in any fight. But if he can’t find a way to limit the damage he takes on the way in and out of exchanges, there’s every reason to think Poirier will pick away at him again without ever standing in one spot long enough to give Gaethje the chance he needs.

Main Event Round Betting

Main Event Method of Victory Odds


Jan Blachowicz has some experience welcoming 185-pounders to the UFC’s 205-pound class. He also has experience demonstrating why we have these weight classes to begin with. Alex Pereira had a lot of success in a division where he was consistently the much bigger man, but that advantage will be diminished here as he goes up a weight class and faces a former champ.

Everything in this fight could very well depend on grappling. Pereira’s takedown defense has looked suspect at times, and Blachowicz will probably want to test it early. What he doesn’t want to do is get into a straight kickboxing fight with Pereira, and if he can plant him on his back and keep him there he won’t have to. But Pereira has to know that’s coming. The question is what he can do about it.


Every moment Blachowicz has to stand in front of Pereira is a potentially scary moment. But Blachowicz is a savvy old dog with a few tricks up his sleeve. If he can get his wrestling going early then he’ll have a good chance to slowly suffocate Pereira on the mat. It also probably benefits him to have this as a three-round, non-title, co-main event rather than a five-rounder. You don’t want to give a striker like Pereira too many opportunities to start on his feet.

Co-Main Event Round Betting

Co-Main Event Method of Victory Odds


Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

It feels borderline criminal to keep putting Ferguson in these fights. He’s lost five straight while looking less motivated in each one, and it was just a couple months ago that he was arrested on DUI charges after allegedly flipping his truck onto a parked car. None of that suggests a career comeback is right around the corner at the age of 39. This might be the easiest side to pick among UFC 291 odds.

Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland

Chiesa is an excellent grappler who’s struggled lately against tough opponents who had good answers to his somewhat limited overall game. Holland is as eccentric inside the cage as he is outside of it, but he’s also a tough puzzle for anyone who can’t overwhelm him in any specific area. There’s a good chance of this one finishing inside the distance.


It’s always risky betting on Derrick Lewis in a fight that takes place at elevation. If he doesn’t score a quick knockout against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, it’s very easy to imagine him gassing out and losing late. What’s a lot harder is imagining these two going three full rounds and needing the scorecards to decide it.

A lot is being asked of Darrius Flowers, who’s coming off the Contender Series and making his UFC debut against a very experienced opponent in Jake Matthews. Chances of Matthews getting the finish, possibly via submission, seem pretty good under the circumstances.

Best of luck wagering on UFC 291 odds.