Best Super Bowl First Touchdown Scorer Odds: Who I’m Betting For Chiefs Vs. 49ers 1st TD

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Written By Jeffrey Schreiber | Last Updated
super bowl first touchdown

The Super Bowl first touchdown scorer market is one of the most popular betting markets in the Big Game every year. Typically settled in the first quarter of action, this market gives bettors the chance to get a nice payout well before the game is over. In this article, we are tasked with identifying which players will score the first TD in Super Bowl 58. These prop bets can be difficult to predict but are a fan favorite for many NFL bettors interested in betting on the Super Bowl.

I have assembled both the Chiefs and 49ers first touchdown stats from this season, and below, I’ll share which names I’m betting in Super Bowl first touchdown odds. Finally, find out about the history of players who have scored first in the Big Game.

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Best Super Bowl First Touchdown Odds

What is a first touchdown scorer bet?

To win this bet, you must correctly pick the first player to score the first TD in the game. The first player who receives a touchdown pass or crosses the goal line with the ball will be deemed as the game’s first TD scorer.

A touchdown scorer is defined as the player in possession of the ball in the end zone, not the player who throws the TD.

First TD Scorer Strategy for Super Bowl 58

The 49ers and Chiefs were second and third in first touchdowns scored this season, only trailing the Baltimore Ravens. The key to correctly predicting the player to score the game’s first TD would be first to try figuring out which team will score a TD first. Some first-TD scorer handicappers try to predict this by determining which team will likely possess the ball first. I wouldn’t say I like that strategy, as a team can easily go down the field and score a FG or punt the ball away on their first possession.

San Francisco scored first in 14 of 19 games this season, including the regular season and playoffs. The Lions scored first in the NFC title game, but the 49ers had scored first in their three games prior, plus in seven of their previous ten. Kansas City has played 20 combined games this season and scored the first touchdown in 14. Of those 14, Pacheco and Rice are the only players to have done so multiple times, with 4 and 3 first touchdowns, respectively.

Below is a breakdown of the 49ers’ & Chiefs’ offensive and defensive first touchdowns scored and allowed in the regular season.

Offense First TD Scored

OFFENSE FIRST TD SCOREDTOTALRUSHPASSDEFENSEQBRBWRTE
San Francisco 49ers135800661
Kansas City Chiefs123810560

Defense First TD Allowed

DEFENSE FIRST TD ALLOWEDTOTALRUSHPASSDEFENSEQBRBWRTE
San Francisco 49ers42200220
Kansas City Chiefs50500221

2023 Chiefs & 49ers First TD Scorers

PLAYERRUSHPASSTOTAL
Christian McCaffrey224
Isaiah Pacheco314
Brandon Aiyuk033
Deebo Samuel112
Rashee Rice022
Elijah Mitchell101
George Kittle011
Jerick McKinnon011
Jordan Mason101
Justin Watson011
Kadarius Toney011
Marquez Valdes-Scantling011
Ronnie Bell011
Skyy Moore011
KC Defense001

Super Bowl 1st TD Scorer Predictions 

49ers WR Deebo Samuel

I Love Samuel’s chances of hitting paydirt in this game. Samuel’s 12 total touchdowns this season (seven receiving, five rushing) are his most since his 2021 All-Pro campaign. He’s currently on a three-game scoreless streak, as his last touchdown was in Week 17, but his ability to score on a catch or a rushing attempt intrigues me. He’s also a dangerous threat near the goal line.

When looking into how the 49ers pass catchers will fear against this Chief’s defense, it’s the primary WR1 that continues to perform poorly. Kansas City has yet to concede more than 74 receiving yards to any clear WR1 this season. This bodes poorly for Brandon Aiyuk’s potential in this game, especially if Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed shadows Aiyuk. Sneed had one of the highest shadow rates in the league, north of 50% of his snaps. The Chiefs have allowed only 37.4% of targets to go to wideouts who line up outside (27th). Kansas City has allowed the 9th highest target rate to the slot (33.5%), and the fifth-highest target rate to players lined up in-line. This all bodes well for Samuel’s potential success.

It’s worth noting that in all three playoff games this postseason, the Chiefs allowed the speed/gadget-type WR to score a TD against them. Speedy wideouts Zay Flowers, Khalil Shakir, and Tyreek Hill all managed to score. While it’s tough to know who will score first in this game, betting on a highly utilized weapon on a team at nearly 10:1 odds is certainly a risk I’m willing to take.

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice

Before choosing who scores first in this game, we must determine who will score a TD and then move on. I am ecstatic about Rice’s chances of scoring in Super Bowl 58. For starters, the 49ers’ defense has allowed at least one TD to a WR in every one of their last eight games.

Now, here is something super interesting when breaking down this specific matchup for Rice against the 49ers. San Francisco has been particularly vulnerable to allowing TDs to WRs running out of the slot this season. During the regular season, the 49ers allowed a 7.2% touchdown rate on receptions to slot receivers, which was 28th in the league. Wideouts have scored nine touchdowns from the slot against San Francisco this season. Regarding slot snaps for Chiefs WRs, Rice played the most snaps from the slot among all Chiefs pass catchers this year.

We know Patrick Mahomes loves looking the Rookies way down inside scoring position, as Rice led all Chiefs WRs in TDs during the regular season with seven.

When scoring the game’s first TD this season, Rice achieved this twice during the regular season and once during the postseason thus far. It’s worth noting that although it wasn’t the game’s first TD, Rice scored the Chiefs team’s first TD in their game against the Lions on opening night. At 10:1 odds for Rice to score first, the value seems promising.

Best of luck betting first TD scorer odds in Super Bowl 58!

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Super Bowl First Touchdown Scorer History

Scoring the first touchdown in a Super Bowl is an honor and makes the player who does it each year a piece of football history. In addition to making your picks for the first scorer in this game, be sure to keep reading for the list of Super Bowl first touchdown scorer winners from previous editions of this game since 2014.

Super BowlFirst TD ScorerTeam
LVIIQB Jalen HurtsPhiladelphia Eagles
LVIWR Odell Beckham Jr.Los Angeles Rams
LVTE Rob GronkowskiTampa Bay Buccaneers
LIVQB Patrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
LIIIRB Sony MichelNew England Patriots
LIIWR Alshon JefferyPhiladelphia Eagles
LIRB Devonta FreemanAtlanta Falcons
50DB Malik JacksonDenver Broncos
XLIXWR Brandon LaFellNew England Patriots
XLVIIIRB Marshawn LynchSeattle Seahawks

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