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Let’s get to this week’s prop bets.
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Leonard Fournette Player Prop: Over 16.5 Rushes (+110)
Last year, Leonard Fournette averaged 12.8 rushes per game. Over the past two weeks, he has 15 attempts total. So, why on Earth do I like the over here?
I think this game winds up looking a lot more like Tampa Bay’s first two games. The new(ish) Buccaneers staff seems much more committed to running the ball. It’s hard to see that just looking at the rushing play percentage, which is bottom three so far. However, that’s heavily skewed by the blowout loss to the Chiefs in which Tampa fell behind early and abandoned the run.
Look back at prior weeks. Through the first three games, the Bucs ranked in the middle of the pack in rushing play rate. And Fournette got 21 and 24 carries the first two weeks, respectively, when the team found itself in positive or neutral script. Even with Fournette ineffective (only 65 yards), they kept pounding the rock against the Saints.
And the Bucs should find themselves in a positive script here. They’re home favorites.
Furthermore, when they do run the ball, they should find at least some success. The Falcons have been terrible against the run, ranking second-to-last in EPA/play allowed. That should only encourage the Bucs to run more often.
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Week 5 NFL Player Props: Full Picks Video
This Leonard Fournette prop is just one of a long list of NFL Week 5 props the Coast 2 Coast crew dissected this week. For more Week 5 player props, head over to YouTube and watch the show below.