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Let’s get to this week’s prop bets.
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Tua Tagovailoa Player Prop: Under 272.5 Passing Yards (-115)
When markets for this game first opened last week, I was very intrigued to get the Dolphins at a nice plus number over the key number of three. After all, I have these two teams closely rated in my NFL power rankings.
Then, I noticed a couple of key injuries looming large here. Miami could play without both of its starting offensive tackles here.
Now, losing Austin Jackson is one thing. The team can likely replace him without too much pain. But losing Terron Armstead is quite another. The three-time Pro Bowler is among the league’s best at his position. The Dolphins sorely need his reliability and protection facing ace pass rusher Nick Bosa.
The 49ers bring the seventh-highest rate of pressure in the league. And while Tua Tagovailoa has enjoyed a marvelous season thus far, I have to credit a lot of it to the structure around him. When that structure falls apart, as it inevitably will sometimes facing this 49ers defense, I don’t trust him to read the situation and escape the pocket in time if needed.
In fact, all I really trust this offense to do in this spot is hit some short throws. While Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle could turn those into big plays, in theory, it’s going to be harder than it sounds. The Niners pair PFF’s third-rated coverage unit with the second-most reliable tackling.
I think they can hold Tagovailoa under this hefty number, one pumped up by feasting on weak defenses for the past month and change.
Best Available Odds On Tua Tagovailoa Props
Week 13 NFL Player Props: Full Picks Video
This Tua Tagovailoa prop is just one of a long list of NFL Week 13 props the Coast 2 Coast crew dissected this week. For more Week 13 player props, head over to YouTube and watch the show below.