Eli’s NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Will DK Metcalf, Seahawks Upset 49ers?
As the odds for NFL Week 11 near kickoff, let’s handicap point spreads and totals while searching for the best NFL promos across the sports betting industry. The Commanders at Eagles and Seahawks at 49ers pique my interest — juxtaposed with my model and projections. I’ll add other NFL bets once they’re in my sportsbook account.
Below are the best odds in your state. You can also explore the best sportsbook promos from the best sports betting sites.
Thursday night football NFL bets: under 48.5 (combined 48 points or fewer)
Good or bad, I’m always transparent with my picks, which you will find in our free sports betting Discord. This football season has been my toughest, going 18-25-3 (-6.18 units). I’ve had a profitable run during the last two years at TheLines.com, finishing 101-65-2 (+33.06 units).
Whether you tail my NFL bets or find this article helpful when analyzing the market, hopefully, you understand the importance of bankroll management amid bumpy stretches and avoid the urge to chase your losses.
Without further ado, let’s begin.
Projecting The Script
As noted in my column on TNF anytime touchdown odds, the Eagles’ defense has greatly improved under Vic Fangio. It ranks seventh in defensive DVOA, guided by the ascension of defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
Although the Commanders nearly knocked off the Steelers last week, Jayden Daniels accumulated the fourth-lowest passing success rate. Only Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and Caleb Williams ranked behind Daniels, favored among Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. His regression should continue on Thursday night.
Washington’s offensive line is banged up, with both starting tackles considered questionable. Although Fangio doesn’t dial up many blitzes, I anticipate the Commanders playing more conservatively in this critical NFC East affair.
Conversely, Philadelphia’s stout unit has an edge in the trenches, facing off against a defense with the NFL’s eighth-worst run-stop win rate. Saquon Barkley and Co. typically operate methodically, producing the eighth-slowest pace. If the game script is in their favor, their run-first approach should grind the clock throughout.
TNF Injury Report
| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||
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Philadelphia Eagles | ||||||||||
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Washington Commanders | ||||||||||
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Watch: BetMGM Trader on eagles vs. commanders odds
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NFL bets: seahawks +6.5 (to lose by six or less or win)
Too Much Market Respect
In Week 6, the 49ers closed as 3.5-point favorites before upending the Seahawks at Lumen Field. Since home-field advantage is less meaningful to the spread in divisional games, my model makes this line closer to San Francisco -5. Even after adjusting for the return of Christian McCaffrey, there’s value in Mike Macdonald’s group following its bye week.
Granted, Kyle Shanahan’s group should have covered against the Buccaneers last week, with Jake Moody’s three missed field goals sending that game down to the wire. But I’m not sold on McCaffrey, who just returned from an Achilles injury, completely fixing the 49ers’ concerns. For reference, they’ve generated the fifth-worst touchdown rate inside the red zone.
With Seahawks wide receiver D.K. Metcalf and right tackle Abraham Lucas likely to return, I expect them to at least hang within a possession in a desperate spot.
However, I will wait to back the road underdog, as this line may rise to the key number of seven. Good luck with the rest of your NFL bets!
- Update: With 49ers tight end George Kittle likely out, I bet on Seahawks +6.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook.
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