Best NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts To Decide Favorite

Week 10 saw Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow near the top of NFL MVP futures but lose as favorites, meaning that the NFL MVP odds table has shifted. Tight Monday Night Football odds foreshadow a potential duel between Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes, and the top of the sportsbook odds will surely be different next week. The winner will likely stand alone as the favorite. Is there room for an underdog longshot?

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Week 10 MVP Takeaways

Week 10 was brutal for MVP candidates on teams that did not have a bye week. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow both lost as sizable favorites, proving the argument I made last week that their demanding schedules would be their undoing.

Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Miami were all on bye, meaning none of Mahomes, Hurts, or Tua were able to improve their case. Christian McCaffrey put up 142 scrimmage yards against the Jaguars, but the 49ers RB isn’t on pace to break any records, which is what it takes for RBs to be in the MVP conversation.

C.J. Stroud has entered the odds board after putting up 356 yards in a win over the Bengals, but as much as Stroud is cementing himself as a talent capable of future MVP consideration, the hype train may be going too far. He’ll likely win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but an OROY-MVP double would be unprecedented in the Super Bowl era.

Jim Brown is the only rookie to ever win NFL MVP. In 1957, Brown rushed for 942 yards on 202 carries (4.7 yards per carry) with nine touchdowns in 12 games. He also caught 16 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. The pride of Syracuse Univerity led Cleveland to a 9-2-1 record, the best in the NFL. The Browns went on to lose to the Lions in the NFL Championship Game 59-14.

Editor’s Note

Joe Burrow () vs. Lamar Jackson ()

Thursday Night Football this week acts as somewhat of a last-chance saloon for both Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Whether either of them retains a shot at the award is debatable, but the loser will likely be eliminated from contention.

Burrow is (correctly) seen as the less likely winner right now, but it doesn’t really matter. If Baltimore loses this game, Lamar won’t be able to survive.

Lamar and co. are favored with the game in Baltimore, which makes sense. Since Week 5, the Ravens are eighth in Offensive EPA and fourth in Defense, while the Bengals are sixth and 14th. That defensive gap, mixed with home-field advantage, is enough to make the Ravens favored. That said, the Ravens’ defense didn’t exactly look stellar in letting Deshaun Watson play his best game since his suspension.

Burrow, at his current price, makes some sense – he’d need a clean end of the season and carnage above him. That said, if he wins this week, you’ll be lucky to get a price half this.

Bengals QB Passing Stats

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Ravens QB Passing Stats

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Jalen Hurts () vs. Patrick Mahomes ()

This is the week’s marquee matchup, both for Super Bowl outlooks and for the MVP race. The winner of this game will take a commanding edge for the rest of the season, especially if it’s Mahomes.

Beyond this game, the Chiefs have only two more games against teams with winning records currently, Cincinnati and Buffalo. With all three of their challenging games left at home, the Chiefs have to be considered favorites in all three.

On the other hand, the Eagles have clearly been vulnerable despite amassing wins. The Eagles’ defense is down to 19th by EPA for the season, and the Cowboys should have beaten them in Week 9. With the Bills, Niners, and Cowboys coming up the next three weeks after this, even if Hurts wins this week, he’ll face a challenging task to keep control of the award.

I have already bet the Eagles in this game, but Mahomes remains the obvious MVP play in my view. If the Chiefs win, he’ll have wins over Tua and Hurts, a tie for the best record in the league, and a remaining schedule with a sub-.500 win percentages the rest of the way. A KC win, and it’s possible his price will be negative by Tuesday morning of next week, making Mahomes favored over the field.

Chiefs QB Passing Stats

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Eagles Passing Stats

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