Best NFL MVP Odds: Jalen Hurts The New Favorite; Is Eagles QB Most Likely To Win?

Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
nfl mvp odds

After the thrilling Monday Night Football matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, NFL Most Valuable Player odds have shifted substantially. Additionally, with so many of the second tier on the odds board winning in Week 11, the race for the MVP still appears to be fluid. Going into Thanksgiving, where two possible contenders in NFL MVP odds are playing on Thursday, this race could move again soon.

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Week 11 NFL MVP Takeaways

Baltimore winning looks much less impressive, given they got to play Jake Browning for most of the game, and it’s still the case that the Ravens have to play the Chargers, Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins, and Steelers the rest of the season. Without Mark Andrews, the Ravens will likely take too many losses for Lamar Jackson to contend seriously. He’s also pretty far behind the statistical leaders.

We can similarly dispense with Tua – while he did put up 325 yards against the Raiders, they did only put up 20 points against a non-playoff team. The Dolphins’ three losses to Buffalo, Philly, and Kansas City only prove they’re not good enough to win when it matters. Unless they sweep the Cowboys, Bills, and Ravens to end the season, Tua doesn’t have a chance to win this award. Even if they do, he still might, but a sweep of those three is necessary at this juncture.

Brock Purdy has looked like his old self since the bye week, but even if the Niners win out from here, those three straight losses will still hurt. Everyone seems to continue to give the credit to Kyle Shanahan too, so you have great CLV on a likely losing ticket.

Jalen Hurts ()

Despite the hype coming into Monday Night Football, neither QB cemented themselves as an unbeatable MVP candidate in this game whatsoever. Neither QB broke 200 yards; only Jalen Hurts made a particularly impressive deep throw (to Devonta Smith). Otherwise, it was a rushing game. Yes, Hurts ran for two touchdowns, but 12 carries for 29 yards isn’t MVP stuff when you also throw for 150 yards.

This has left the top of the oddsboard less lopsided than it would have seemed. If you had told most bettors that Philadelphia would win that game, Hurts still being available at his current price would have been unthinkable. But it’s a weird year for MVP, where the player on the team with the best record feels like a vulnerable favorite.

Eagles QB Passing Stats

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating

Eagles Upcoming Schedule

No season schedule data available.

Enter Dak Prescott ()?

In all likelihood, this award is Jalen Hurts’ or Patrick Mahomes’ to lose. The Chiefs benefitted from Joe Burrow’s injury, and a game against the Bills at Arrowhead is the only time they’ll be less than sizably favored all season. If Philly finally stumbles these next three weeks, against Buffalo, San Fran, and Dallas, Hurts’ odds could fall enough that Mahomes still wins despite the head to head loss.

That all said, there’s one longshot that actually has a path. Dak Prescott has a difficult schedule down the stretch – playing the Eagles, Lions, Bills, and Dolphins – but they are likely favored in all four of those games. With the Dallas defense still strong –  third in the league in EPA – the Cowboys could run the table. And if they do, they could easily be the 1-seed in the NFC.

If Hurts doesn’t win the NFC East and therefore the 1 seed, he won’t win. The Chiefs have already lost 3 games, same as Dallas, and their play in recent weeks offensively suggests that they can be upset on any given Sunday. And everyone else has real and serious issues.

Dallas could be the 1-seed, winner of the NFC East, and have the NFC playoffs running through Jerry World. And if that happens, with the way the NFL’s media hype cycle loves talking up Cowboys, Dak could win.

It takes winning games they should win, but Dak is still a live longshot on the NFL MVP odds board.

Cowboys Passing Stats

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating

Cowboys Upcoming Schedule

No season schedule data available.


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