Best NFL Black Friday Anytime Touchdown Odds For Jets vs. Dolphins: Can Raheem Mostert Score A TD?

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Written By Josh Lander | Last Updated
anytime touchdown odds

For the first time ever, there will be NFL action on Black Friday. The New York Jets host the division-rival Miami Dolphins in what’s projected to be a low-scoring game with a total set at . We’ll need to use caution while finding the best available anytime touchdown odds in this one. I’m looking at two Dolphins players and one from the Jets to reach the end zone on Friday. Let’s dive into it.

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dolphins AT jets: black friday ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN ODDS

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First TD Scorer Odds

dolphins AT jets: black Friday Anytime Touchdown Odds Strategy

Jets Implied TD Probability

New York’s sludgy offense will have a new quarterback at the helm for Week 12. Head coach Robert Saleh officially announced the team’s backup, Tim Boyle, would start over Zach Wilson against Miami. Wilson had another terrible three quarters before Boyle relieved him in Week 11, completing 7-15 passes for 81 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. Boyle wasn’t much better, going 7-14 for 33 yards and one INT.

The Jets have an implied team total of around 15 points. They’re likely in store for a maximum of two touchdowns, making it difficult to navigate their player ATTD odds.

Dolphins Implied TD Probability

Miami, on the other hand, has the most prolific offense in the league through 11 weeks of football. It’s the first time this season, however, that the Dolphins will face this dominant Jets defense. New York has only allowed 12 total TDs through 10 games, tied for the fourth-fewest of any unit. If Gang Green has any weaknesses on defense, the team has struggled to slow down tight ends in the red zone. They’ve allowed opposing TEs to score six times, tied for most in the league.

Still, they’re in the top ten at limiting receptions and yards to the position. Plus, not a single Dolphins tight end has scored a touchdown this year, and Tua Tagovialoa has only targeted his tight ends a total of 26 times.

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Dolphins Anytime TouchdownS

Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert ()

Explosive Dolphins rookie De’Von Achane suffered another injury in Week 11, leaving Mostert as the clear workhorse coming out of the backfield. The Dolphins starter failed to score in a win against the Raiders, but still commanded 57% of the snaps. Backup Salvon Ahmed snagged the only RB score on an 11-yard reception in the second quarter, even though he only saw 26% of the snap share. Most importantly, Mostert carried the ball 22 times, continuing to establish himself as a usage monster without Achane.

It won’t be easy to earn a rushing score against the Jets. While they’ve allowed the sixth-most yards on the ground, opposing RBs have only rushed for three TDs against them. That’s good for the fourth-fewest in the league.

I would consider getting a bit more specific with this bet and playing it as a receiving touchdown, rather than any type of score. The Jets’ stout rush defense funnels opponents to the edges, forcing them into screen plays and swing passes. It’s the main reason the Jets are ranked in the bottom five in terms of limiting RB targets, receptions, and receiving yards. They’ve actually given up one more receiving ATD (four) than rushing ATD (three) to opposing running backs.

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Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle ()

It’s a brutal week to be a Dolphins wide receiver. That’s been the case for every wide receiver who has lined up against Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner or his fellow cornerback D.J. Reed. New York has limited opposing WRs to the fewest receiving yards and touchdowns thanks to their all-world combination at CB. If we’re going to pick a WR to reach pay dirt, however, I prefer Waddle to Tyreek Hill this week. At least Waddle won’t be lined up against Sauce Gardner, who’s likely headed to the Pro Bowl in his second season.

Reed should give Waddle all he can handle, but we should be able to depend on Waddle’s high participation rate. He’s posted at least a 75% route participation rate in six of eight games so far and has seen double-digit targets in three of his last five.

2024 Dolphins Player Stats

Last Updated on 11.21.2023

There are no player stats tables available.

Jets Anytime Touchdowns

Jets RB Breece Hall ()

Breece Hall has seen a ton of stacked defensive fronts this season, and he’s probably going to see more of the same from the Dolphins on Friday. The Fins’ run defense isn’t great, but it does have two of the best cornerbacks in the game, Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard. As a result, Miami can leave single coverage on the outside to focus its attention entirely on the opposing run game. Teams are also usually forced to pass the ball to keep up with the Dolphins’ high-octane offense.

So, let’s go use the same tactic for Hall as we did for Mostert and attack his receiving ATD prop. While Hall’s rushing numbers have been abysmal over the last five games (31 yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry), his receiving stats have been impressive. The Jets sophomore RB has averaged 4.6 receptions and 47.5 yards over that time, reaching paydirt twice. His 10 yards per catch is incredibly high for a running back, especially with an ADOT of around 3 yards per attempt.

Best of luck betting Jets and Dolphins anytime touchdown odds this week!

2024 Jets Player Stats

There are no player stats tables available.

dolphins at Jets Player Props

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