We’re back with NBA player props on a two-game slate, Monday night. First up is Knicks vs. Heat, followed by Warriors vs. Lakers. I’ve got my eye on a couple of plays from the Western Conference matchup. We made 4+ units on Friday and Saturday, let’s keep rolling! Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator.
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Lakers At Warriors NBA Player Props
Game Notes
Los Angeles dominated Game 3 to regain full control of this series. The Lakers are favorites at home, with a point total set at .
LeBron James Under 32.5 Points and Assists Combo (-115 DraftKings | 1.5u)
Here are James’ core points, rebounds, assists, and points and assists combo props for the game against the Warriors:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
- Points and Assists Combo: Over/Under /
Not The Same LeBron
It’s been nearly two full years since LeBron James has recorded more than 32 points and assists combined in a playoff game. On June 3, 2021, he put up 29/7 against Phoenix in a losing effort that sent LA home after the first round. Anthony Davis was already out for the year with an injury and that Lakers team was much more scarce for talent compared with the current one.
That was the only instance of James getting more than 32 P+A over his last 16 playoff games. So, why is his prop still at 32.5 on Monday night? Because it’s LeBron James, of course. Oddsmakers have set his points and assists prop as low as 30.5 during this postseason, but people continue to hit the over. Two of the top five most frequently-placed bets on player props at BetMGM ahead of Game 4 were Over 5.5 assists and Over 26.5 points for James.
Over his last 10 games, the closing number for LeBron’s P+A prop has been at least 31.5, despite what the trends have said. He’s gone under 33 P+A in all 10, including the play-in victory over Minnesota.
Lakers’ Shooting Anomaly
Game 3 was the perfect illustration of how James can play almost perfectly on offense and still not get over 32 P+A. He didn’t attempt a single shot in the first quarter, choosing to get Anthony Davis involved early instead. D’Angelo Russell was also sizzling, hitting three of his first four attempts from deep. In fact, LA’s hot shooting was the only reason James had eight assists before sitting out nearly the entire fourth quarter.
The Lakers made 15 3s on Saturday at a 48% clip. In the two previous games against Golden State, they hit 16 combined on 32%. On the season as a whole, LA averaged just 10.8 made 3s per contest on 34.6% shooting.
At this point in his career, it simply takes too much energy for James to get over the total for both stats in one game. I like taking the under for his point prop, but adding the assists safeguards us against him excelling at both shooting and passing the ball in the same game.
Josh Lander is 64-43 and up 25+ units betting NBA player props over the last two months. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Andrew Wiggins Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120 FanDuel | 1.5u) // 8+ Rebounds (+230 FanDuel | .5u)
Here are Wiggins’ core points, rebounds, assists, and points and rebounds combo props for the game against the Lakers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
- Points and Rebounds Combo: Over/Under /
Less Looney This Series
Warriors head coach, Steve Kerr sent a huge ripple through this series right before the start of Game 2 when he announced JaMychal Green would start in place of center Kevon Looney. Kerr claimed that Looney was feeling ill and then kept the lineup the same for Game 3 as well. I’m not saying Kerr was lying about Looney’s illness, but I am saying it was convenient timing.
As amazing as Looney was in Golden State’s first-round series against Sacramento, the Lakers defense is in a different echelon. With both Looney and Draymond Green on the floor at once, the Warriors offense is much more stagnant and reliant upon its guards and wings to create shots for themselves. When both have been on the floor this postseason, the team shoots 29% from deep, much worse than the 37% with one or the other.
With Looney’s minutes reduced in half, that leaves about seven to 10 rebounds literally up for grabs. Draymond should gobble up a couple of those, but it’s much more important for him to focus all his energy on keeping Davis away from offensive boards, rather than securing them himself. That leaves Andrew Wiggins, the team’s next-best rebounder to chip in around the glass.
Clean Up In Los Angeles
Unless you think LA is going to shoot nearly 50% from 3 again, there should be more rebounds available in Game 4. Looney’s reduction in minutes should also speed this game up. With Looney on the bench this postseason, Golden State plays at a significantly faster pace and the same can be said for when Wiggins is on the floor. More possessions combined with LA’s expected decrease in shooting efficiency will equal more missed shots.
Wiggins averages six rebounds per game these playoffs. That’s a slight drop from last postseason when he averaged 7.5 for the Dubs. After posting nine boards last game, I’m getting ahead of a likely uptick in his stats before the books begin to raise his props.
