The NBA playoffs continue on with Game 2 between the Warriors and Lakers on Thursday night. Wednesday was rough for those who tailed the Al Horford and James Harden NBA player props. Hopefully you live bet the under for the game total with me as well to salvage your night. On the to Lakers and Warriors! Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator.
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Lakers At Warriors NBA Player Props
Game Notes
Despite its 1-0 series lead, Los Angeles enters Game 2 as underdogs, with a point total set at .
Klay Thompson Under 23.5 Points (-120 DraftKings | 1u)
Here are Thompson’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Lakers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Stick To Your Guns
It’s been a wild ride betting on Klay Thompson’s props these playoffs. Like I wrote in Tuesday’s article outlining why I was betting under his points prop, I’m fading him throughout the postseason no matter how he performs in Game 1. Sure enough, he went over 23.5 points on 6-of-16 shooting from deep. After watching it take six made 3s for him to barely climb over 23 points, I’m going back to the under for his points prop in Game 2.
Thompson had 22 points entering the fourth quarter of Tuesday night’s game and still only finished with 25. He went 1-of-3 in the fourth quarter while watching Curry hoist up 10 shots and Jordan Poole six. If Curry plays like this all postseason, Klay becomes more of a nice addition to the offense, rather than a focal point. Hence why he has a lower usage rate than Poole over the last eight games.
He’s still only gone over 23 points less eight times over his last 30 playoff appearances. He’s scoring 57% of his points off 3s at just 19 points per game. Though he’s hitting more than three per game, he can’t manage to score efficiently from anywhere else. All of this adds up to Thompson needing at least five made 3s to get over Thursday’s prop.
Josh Lander is 58-41 and up 20+ units betting NBA player props over the last two months. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Jarred Vanderbilt Over 11.5 Points and Rebounds Combo (-110 DK | 1u)
Here are Vanderbilt’s core points, rebounds, assists, and points and rebounds combo props for the game against the Warriors:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
- Points and Rebounds Combo: Over/Under /
Stop Fouling, Jarred
When Jarred Vanderbilt was whistled for his fifth foul in the fourth quarter of Game 1, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis went over to the referee to argue the foul should have been on Davis. That’s how important Vanderbilt is to the Lakers’ success against the Warriors in this series. He’s LA’s best option to defend Curry, meaning they need him on the floor and out of foul trouble.
He did an excellent job through the first three quarters, limiting Curry to 10 points and picking up just one foul. In the third quarter, however, he picked up his third and fourth fouls and started the fourth on the bench. Finally free of Vanderbilt’s 7-foot wingspan, Curry got hot and nearly brought Golden State all the way back with 14 points in the final quarter.
The Lakers defense is remarkably better with Vanderbilt out there, regardless of whom he’s matched up with. With him on the court, LA has a 100 defensive rating in the playoffs. When he’s off the court, that rating jumps all the way to 121.
There’s also a direct correlation between Vanderbilt’s foul count and his production. In the three games this postseason in which he committed three fouls or less, Vanderbilt averaged 16 combined points and rebounds. In his four games with four or more fouls, he averaged six P+R.
