We only have one NBA playoff game on Thursday night. Game 6 between the Celtics and Hawks tips at 8:30 p.m. E.T. on TNT. It’s been an awesome start to the week betting NBA player props. We accrued more than 3.3 units last night to make it +6 over the last three! Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator.
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Celtics At Hawks NBA Player Props
Game Notes
Boston is back in Atlanta after failing to close things out at home in Game 5. The Celtics are listed as favorites in the game, with a point total set at .
For Boston, Jayson Tatum will look to bounce back from an awful shooting performance in Game 5. On the other side of the ball, Dejounte Murray will return from the one-game suspension he served on Tuesday night. I like both players to go over their projected points totals in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Dejounte Murray Over 21.5 Points (-111 Caeasar’s | 1.5u) // SGP: Over 21.5/Over 5.5 Reb (+250 DK | .5u)
Here are Murray’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Celtics:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
Murray came out firing in his first four playoff games for the Hawks. Before his suspension, he averaged 25 PPG with more than seven boards and five assists. He led the Hawks in minutes, field goal attempts, made three-pointers, and steals. He was also second in scoring, rebounds and assists.
It’s strange to see the oddsmakers list Murray’s points prop at just 21.5 considering he’s topped that total in every game this postseason. I’m betting Murray to score 22 or more on Thursday night.
A Fiery Competitor
We all saw Murray’s competitive edge get the best of him at the end of Game 4 when he bumped an official, leading to his one-game suspension. On Wednesday night, we saw similar competitors like Draymond Green and Julius Randle surge out of the gate after being benched themselves (Green due to suspension and Randle due to a coach’s decision to keep him on the bench in the fourth quarter). Expect Murray to use that same energy to make up for his absence last game.
Murray has been the biggest beneficiary of the Celtics’ game plan for defending the Hawks so far. Part of the reason for his high usage rate in the series has been Boston’s determination to get the ball out of Trae Young’s hands. When Young is at the top of the key and Murray on the wing, Boston has been doubling Young with Murray’s defender. This forces the ball out of Young’s hands and into Murray’s where he’s able to shoot or make plays off the dribble.
Murray’s Consistency
Murray has gone over Thursday’s points prop in eight of his last 10 games against the Celtics. Three of those were as a member of the Spurs. In his six appearances against Boston since joining Atlanta, he’s gone over in five of them. The only time he failed to do so was in his first game with the Hawks. Let’s give him a pass on that one considering how long it took him to acclimate to playing alongside Trae.
Those exact same numbers hold true for his rebounding prop as well. He’s grabbed at least six boards in every game of the series and 80% of the time he’s played the Celtics for his career. Let’s sprinkle half a unit on a Same Game Parlay with his points and rebounds props.
Josh Lander is 53-29 and up 26+ units betting NBA player props over the last two months. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points (-110 DK | 1u)
Here are Tatum’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Hawks:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
It was a rough Game 5 for the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum. He only managed 19 points over his 38 minutes on the floor, making just one of his 10 attempts from deep. His shot has been streaky at best this series. He’s putting up 43% FG/34% 3P shooting splits, both a few notches down from his season averages.
Still, he’s scored at least 29 points in three of his five postseason games so far. His usage rate is up to 30% and his shot has been much more consistent on the road. In his last four playoff games away from home, Tatum is shooting 45% from three with nearly five makes per contest.
Comeback Kid
Tatum was an icon of consistency during the regular season. He had his share of bad games like any player will over an 82-game season. But it was his ability to come back even stronger the next game that shaped the 2022-23 season into his personal best.
Since Jan. 1, Tatum has scored 30 or more points in 24 of his 40 games. In only four instances during that time did Tatum score less than 30 in two straight. In short, when Tatum doesn’t score 30 points in a game, he gets over that mark in the next game roughly 75% of the time.
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