The NBA playoffs continue on Thursday night with a pair of Game 6 matchups. First up, the 76ers try to finish off a sizable upset over the Celtics before the Nuggets take their shot at a closing out the Suns in Phoenix. I’m subbing in for Josh Lander tonight on NBA player props.
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Celtics At 76ers: NBA Player Props
Game Notes
With the Eastern Conference playoff picture seemingly breaking in Boston’s favor after last year’s NBA Finals run, the Celtics were expected to earn their shot at redemption. However, they’re on the verge of an early exit, facing a 3-2 series deficit against Philly. Still, the market has confidence in Boston — positioned at for this contest. The point total set at .
Malcolm Brogdon Over 1.5 3s (-160 DraftKings) AND/OR Over 14.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)
Here are Brogdon’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the 76ers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Filling A 3-Point Vacuum
Last time out between these teams, I made a wager on Al Horford to make some 3s. In comical fashion, Horford had about as many attempts as expected (seven) but made precisely zero. I feel the process was sound, and it’s informing a similar play here.
Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has consistently noted that he values shooting and spacing above all else. Hence, Horford’s struggles had him losing playing time (25 minutes in Game 5). Frankly, the big man’s shot did not look right, and I don’t feel confident he’s going to rediscover his stroke in Game 6.
Ditto Derrick White. After a resurgent season from deep (38.1%), White has struggled of late. While he remains in the starting lineup, he’s barely getting more minutes than Brogdon (30.8 to 29.1). White even has less than half of Brogdon’s 3-point makes — at about two-thirds of Brogdon’s volume — this series.
As Mazzulla tries desperately to find more shooting, I believe he’ll tab Brogdon for even heavier minutes, particularly if Horford and White can’t rediscover their jumpers. While Brogdon’s 3-point prop has some heavy juice to the over, I still like a play here.
His volume has already increased from his regular season numbers (6.4 attempts per game from 4.4). He’s shooting over 50% in the series after being one of the league’s most accurate snipers during the regular season (44.4%).
Along with over on Brogdon’s 3s, I don’t mind a correlated play on his point total over if you don’t want to pay high vig.
Nuggets At Suns: NBA Player Props
Game Notes
A couple of injury/illness bombshells hit in the hours prior to tip here. Jamal Murray missed shootaround with illness. Additionally, NBA reporter Sham Charania stated that Deandre Ayton will miss Game 6 with a rib injury. These factors throw several NBA player props from this game into flux.
On the verge of elimination at home, Phoenix is priced at while the point total is set at .
Kevin Durant Over 9.5 Rebounds (+110 DraftKings)
Here are Durant’s core points, rebounds, assists, and points and rebounds combo props for the game against the Nuggets:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Durant At The Five?
With the announcement that Ayton will sit, that leaves Jock Landale as his logical replacement with the Phoenix starters. Landale will certainly get more than his usual share of playing time, particularly since he has provided genuinely solid minutes in this series.
However, Monty Williams, much like Joe Mazzulla, has leaned more and more into rotation options that can space the floor and stretch Denver’s defense. There is perhaps no better spacing option in the NBA than placing Kevin Durant at center.
The Suns don’t have another big to replace Ayton with — unless Williams decides to dust off Bismack Biyombo, who has logged 16 total minutes in the Western Conference semifinals. Moreover, Biyombo-incorporated lineups have logged just 36 possessions all season.
Durant has already rebounded like a mad man this series, averaging 10.6 boards per game. He’ll likely shoulder an even larger share of the category in a game that should play at a faster pace.
Therefore, I took some over 9.5 boards at plus money. Bettors have the option to take over 8.5 and lay some juice, too.
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