Best Tuesday NBA Player Props: Target Devin Booker, Al Horford

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on May 8, 2023 - Last Updated on May 9, 2023
NBA Player Props=

The NBA playoffs roll on Tuesday night with a couple of Game 5 matchups. Celtics vs. 76ers kicks things off in Boston, followed by Nuggets vs. Suns back in Denver. I’m going to sub in for Josh Lander tonight on NBA player props, highlighting a couple of plays that caught my eye, one from each game.

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Suns At Nuggets NBA Player Props

Game Notes

Denver returns home tied 2-2 after narrowly coming up short in two bids to take command of the series. The Nuggets are favorites in the contest, with a point total set at .

Devin Booker Under 8.5 Assists (-141 BetRivers) OR Under 7.5 Assists (+114 FanDuel)

Here are Booker’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Nuggets:

  • Points: Over/Under /
  • Rebounds: Over/Under /
  • Assists: Over/Under /

Booker Scoring AND Distributing

With Chris Paul out, Cameron Payne has become the nominal point guard for Phoenix. However, in actuality, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have handled the playmaking, to nobody’s surprise.

Booker has dealt out a monster 8.8 dimes per game as the Nuggets have opted to send frequent doubles in an attempt to force others to beat them. Considering Booker is on an historic shooting heater, that’s not really a ground-breaking strategy.

What may be more surprising is that it’s not working in any way, shape or form. Not only does Booker continue to scorch the net with 36.3 PPG, but the doubles have given the likes of Landry Shamet and Terrence Ross license to fire away in an empty gym. Essentially, the Nuggets are experiencing the worst of both worlds: they aren’t stopping Booker, and the role players can be efficient.

Time For A New Strategy?

I expect Monty Williams will continue riding his all-offensive lineups as far as they’ll take him. Denver’s doubling strategy clearly backfired in Game 4, and I think it will be fairly obvious to the coaching staff that they need to play Booker straight up or double him much farther out from the basket.

Either way, I expect his assist numbers to dip closer to his season average of 5.5. I just can’t believe Denver will allow good shooters, like Shamet, to continue to burn them with clean looks from deep. Hence, I’m taking under on what looks like an inflated number in hopes Denver makes some rational defensive changes here.

76ers At Celtics NBA Player Props

Al Horford Over 2.5 Made 3s (+194 FanDuel)

Here are Horford’s core points, rebounds, assists, and points and rebounds combo props for the game against the 76ers:

  • Points: Over/Under /
  • Rebounds: Over/Under /
  • Assists: Over/Under /
  • Made 3s: Over/Under /

Horford Firing Away

Joel Embiid owns the paint, but Boston has come up with a natural counter to remove Embiid from the rim: play Al Horford as much as possible against Embiid as the only big man on the floor. Horford is one of the few players who can hold his own guarding Embiid while also forcing him out of his comfort zone to defend the perimeter.

The result has been a high volume of 3-point shots in this matchup. Horford averaged almost eight 3PA per game against Philly this season, with only his volume against Minnesota coming close to that. While that has dropped to 6.5 in the playoffs, it may signify relatively poor form at the moment. Aside from a 5-for-7 performance in Game 3, Horford’s accuracy has been concerning. He’s 4-for-19 in the other three games.

Will Horford find his shooting form again?

I’m not sure. I do think the volume will be there if he wants it. Given that he might remain cold from deep, I’m a bit leery of laying the big price on Horford to go over his base prop of 1.5 made 3s. I’d rather take the plus number on the versatile big man to nail at least three triples. If Horford finds his stroke again, this price is pretty juicy given the looks he should receive.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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