Three lower seeds will play at home for the first time this NBA Playoffs on Thursday night. Hopefully, you’ve been following along the last three nights when we went a combined 7-1 and earned more than seven units on NBA player props!
The Suns vs. Clippers should be a fun matchup to end the night. But Kawhi Leonard was ruled out for Game 3 in Los Angeles roughly six hours before tip-off. Instead, I’m eyeing two player props from the first two games on the slate, the 76ers vs. Nets and the Kings vs. Warriors. These are listed in order of my confidence each. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator of my confidence levels.
Let’s kick things off in Golden State. Stephen Curry and the Warriors host the Kings down 0-2 in Game 3 at 10 p.m. ET. The Warriors are favorites in the game, which features a point total set at .
I don’t quite have the nerve to bet the under on Steph’s points prop, but, I’m hitting the under on the game total and love the odds you get for going under his assists prop. Let’s take a look at why. Find NBA odds here and use our player props search tool to find the best odds for NBA props on your favorite players.
Kings At Warriors NBA Player Props
Below are the available NBA player props for the game between the Kings at Warriors.
Stephen Curry Under 7.5 Assists (+115 DraftKings | 1u)
Here are Curry’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Kings:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
The memory of Curry dismantling the Boston Celtics for 43 points in Game 4 of last year’s NBA Finals is still fresh enough to keep me from fading his points prop on Thursday night. Game 3 will mark the first time Curry’s Warriors face an 0-2 playoff series deficit and the Dubs will likely rely on him for his superhuman scoring skills more than anything.
With Draymond Green suspended for one game, many would think Curry will up his assist numbers as the Warriors’ next-best facilitator. Not so fast, my friends. Over the last two seasons, Curry averages more assists per game with Draymond in the lineup, not without him.
Draymond’s effect on the Warriors offense is similar to that of the sun, in that everything revolves around it. The ball inevitably makes its way back to him so he can find the next open man. Once he makes a pass, the recipient is either looking to shoot, drive, or pass it right back to him so he can set up a different teammate coming off a screen.
A lot of Curry’s assists come after he’s received a pass from Draymond while coming off a pick. At that point, the opposing defense knows it can’t leave Curry with even a millimeter of space to shoot and channels its attention entirely to Steph, allowing him the decision to either shoot or make the extra pass to a now-wide-open teammate.
All of those reasons have contributed to Curry only recording eight or more assists once in the last eight games that Green failed to suit up. Without Draymond’s hockey assists, give me under Steph’s assists prop on Thursday night.
Wrong Scenario For Steph
Eight assists is a lot for one player in an NBA game. For Steph Curry, it’s about his ceiling even during a great performance. In his last 20 games including the playoffs, Curry has recorded eight-or-more assists just three times. Two of those came against the New Orleans Pelicans and Minnesota Timberwolves and both teams are ranked in the bottom eight in allowing points and assists to opposing point guards.
Steph also doesn’t hit this prop’s over too often against Sacramento. In his last eight matchups with the Kings, Curry is averaging less than six dimes a night and only went over seven assists one time.
Davion’s Defense
Kings guard Davion Mitchell might be the best possible answer to the question, “how do you effectively defend Steph Curry?” There’s no such thing as a “Steph Stopper” and guarding him is a team effort. But, Mitchell has definitely slowed him down over the first two games of this series.
In Game 1, Mitchell played just 21 minutes mostly with Sacramento’s second unit and only spent three minutes as the primary defender on Steph. Curry went off for 30 total points and was a sizzling 55% from the field and 43% from deep. In Game 2, Mitchell played 28 minutes and spent seven minutes primarily defending Steph. That helped limit him to 28 points on 42% FG and 23% 3P.
Kings coach Mike Brown used to coach the Warriors for years under Steve Kerr. He’s a defensive genius and probably the most capable NBA coach when it comes to devising schemes to slow down Curry on offense. Expect him to continue throwing everything in his book at Steph to force the ball out of his hands before he can even get close to the 3-point line to make plays.
Josh Lander is 44-18 and up 28+ units betting NBA player props over the last month. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
76ers At Nets NBA Player Props
Cameron Johnson and the Brooklyn Nets are back home down 0-2 to the 76ers with Game 3 set for 7:30 p.m. E.T. The Nets are underdogs at home, with a point total set at . Here is the the full odds table for 76ers at Nets.
Cameron Johnson Over 16.5 Points (-115 DraftKings | 1u) / Over 2.5 Made Threes (-108 Caesars | 1u)
Here are Johnson’s core points, rebounds, assists, and made threes props for the game against the 76ers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
- Made Threes: Over/Under /
Down 0-2 and without much hope to come back against the more talented 76ers, Brooklyn’s oddity of a season appears destined to end in the first round. The Nets’ lack of a true center has been thoroughly exposed by 7-foot-3 Joel Embiid and they just don’t have the firepower on offense to compete with Philly’s multitude of scorers.
Don’t blame Cam Johnson, though. Johnson dropped a team-high 28 points in 41 minutes during Game 2 and he’s the team’s second-leading scorer for the series behind Mikal Bridges. He likely would’ve had more than 18 points in Game 1 if Nets coach Jacque Vaughn had played him more than 28 minutes.
In two games, Johnson is shooting 60% from the field and connecting on 52% of his three-pointers. As the team’s clear-cut number two scoring option behind Bridges, there’s no way Vaughn can keep Johnson on the bench as long as he did in the opening game.
Give me the over on Cam Johnson’s points prop in Game 2.
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He’s So Hot Right Now
Johnson’s solid play has earned him more minutes on the floor. And the lackluster offensive contributions from his teammates will continue to push his usage rate upward. Nets starting point Spencer Dinwiddie has been awful, averaging 13 points in 39 minutes with 38% FG/25% 3P shooting splits. Forwards Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neal aren’t expected to be offensive juggernauts. But, the two have severely limited the Nets offense by shooting a combined 33%.
In Game 1, Johnson deferred a bit more, putting up 11 shots including six 3-pointers. In Game 2, he put up 11 3-pointers alone on 19 total shots from the field.
Over his last 10 games, Cam has hit this prop at a 70% clip while averaging 19 points per game in 32 minutes. That puts his per-36 minutes stat up above 21 points. You can bet that if this game is at all within reach Brooklyn will keep its starters in the game until the end.
Suns at Clippers Player Props
The nightcap on Thursday is in Los Angeles where the Suns and Clippers will meet for Game 3 at 10:30 p.m. E.T. Phoenix is favored by with a point total set at . I was on the verge of betting on under Devin Booker’s points prop. But with Leonard sitting out, I won’t be betting any props in this one.
