After being treated to eight games over the weekend, the NBA playoffs continue with just two matchups on the slate Monday night. I went 9-5 last week with some nice returns on our winning bets so let’s keep it rolling with these NBA player props.
First up is Bucks vs. Heat, followed by Grizzlies vs. Lakers. Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator.
Starting with Game 4 in Miami, Caleb Martin and the Heat tip-off against the Bucks at 7:30 p.m. ET. Miami is up 2-1 in the series, but with Giannis Antetokounmpo expected to play, the Heat is listed as underdogs in the game. It features a point total set at .
I’m expecting Martin to play heavy minutes once more in Game 4. Let’s look at why I’m buying over on his points prop Monday night. Find NBA odds here and use our player props search tool to find the best odds for NBA props on your favorite players.
Bucks At Heat NBA Player Props
Below are the available NBA player props for the game between the Bucks at Heat. Two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to play, according to a report from Shams Charania, but the team has yet to officially announce his status.
Caleb Martin Over 9.5 Pts (-113 FD | 1.5u) // u4.5 Reb (+110 DK | .5u)*
If Giannis is officially ruled in for Game 4, I plan on betting under Caleb Martin’s rebound prop. I like over his points prop either way, but if Giannis fails to play unexpectedly, I’m staying away from Martin’s rebounds prop. Here are Martin’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Bucks:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
The Bucks and Heat series has largely been defined by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence for most of the the first three games. Milwaukee’s superstar forward injured his back in Game 1 and missed the next two.
Whether he plays in Game 4 or not, we should see a lot of Caleb Martin. Martin was on the floor for 33 minutes in Game 3 and saw his minutes increase in each of the first three games.
Martin has been Miami’s best defender in these playoffs with a 102.2 individual defensive rating. He’s spent the majority of his minutes defending Bucks point guard, Jrue Holiday and is clearly coach Erik Spoelstra’s go-to point guard in crunch time. He’s also averaging 14.5 points per game, comfortably above Monday night’s points prop.
I’m confidently betting over Martin’s points prop once more.
Martin On Holiday
I was initially interested in Gabe Vincent’s points prop for tonight’s game, when I noticed Martin ate up his minutes in Game 3. Vincent spent the most time guarding Jrue Holiday in Game 2 and was a complete liability as Holiday roasted him for 24 points and 11 assists.
Jimmy Butler guarded Holiday in Game 1 and limited him to 16 points on 33% shooting from the field. Heat coach, Erik Spoelstra then switched up the matchup for Game 2 before realizing far too late that Vincent had no business on Holiday. The Bucks took a 26-point lead at the half thanks to 21 points and five assists from their starting point guard.
Spoelstra’s next adjustment was to throw Martin on Holiday for Game 3. Martin played 33 minutes on Saturday and was the primary defender on Holiday throughout the game. Holiday got his to a degree, but Martin did a much better job in limiting him than anyone not named Jimmy Butler.
More Giannis = Less Rebounds
While I love the over for Martin’s points prop, his rebound prop is dependent on the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo. It seems like Giannis is going to play, I just want the Bucks to officially confirm that report before placing a bet on Martin’s rebounds.
Martin grabbed 11 boards in Game 3, an incredible rebounding performance for a guard. At 6’5″, Martin is tall for his position and excellent at cleaning the glass. But, the Bucks are also an incredible rebounding team and even better when they have Giannis in the lineup. Milwaukee allowed 5 fewer rebounds per game to its opponents when Antetokounmpo was in the lineup.
Unsurprisingly, the Bucks are also much more efficient with their best player on the floor. They make 48% of their shots with Giannis, as opposed to 45% without him. I don’t expect Milwaukee to miss 56% of its field goal attempts with Giannis back in the lineup on Monday like it did in Game 2.
Josh Lander is 46-28 and up 21+ units betting NBA player props over the last seven weeks. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Grizzlies At Lakers NBA Player Props
Rui Hachimura and the LA Lakers host the Grizzlies once more in Game 4 of the seven-versus-two matchup in the West. Tip is set for 10:00 p.m. E.T. with the Lakers as favorites at home, and a point total set at . Here is the the full odds table for Grizzlies at Lakers.
Rui Hachimura Over 13.5 Points / 1+ Made Threes (+120 DraftKings | 1u)
Here are Hachimura’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Grizzlies:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Game 3 between the Grizzlies and Lakers had plenty of dramatics. The LeBron-James-versus-Dillon-Brooks saga played out its most physical act when Brooks slapped James (whether inadvertently or not) in the nether regions.
On top of that, the Grizzlies stumbled their way into just nine points in the first quarter, the second-fewest in NBA Playoffs history for a first quarter. Memphis tried to comeback on the strength of Ja Morant’s 45 points, but never got within serious striking distance.
Though the spotlight was on the main characters of this series, one of the unsung heroes for the Lakers was quietly putting up another incredibly efficient stat line. It’s therefore about time we get to a Rui Hachimura prop for a 2023 playoff game. After three games this postseason, Hachimura has stepped in to fill the previously-uninhabited role of the Lakers’ third scorer with nearly 22 points per contest.
Let’s keep riding with Rui in Game 4. I’m betting he’ll score more than 13 points and parlaying it with him to make at least one three-pointer on Monday night.
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The Right Time For Rui
Hachimura has been a solid addition to the Lakers since coming over in a trade in January. His minutes varied over the 25 games he played with LA in the regular season, averaging around 22 a night. He put up just under 10 points and five rebounds during that time.
The Playoffs seem to have ignited something inside Rui. In his first three games with the team, he’s upped his scoring to 21.7 points per game. His 22% usage rate is good for third-highest on the team behind only LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Rui has also been lights out from deep against Memphis the last three games. He’s averaging more than three made-threes at 75% clip. We’ve actually seen this type of uptick from Hachimura in the playoffs before. He played five playoff games with Washington in 2021 and shot 60% from deep.
In fact, Hachimura has made at least one three-pointer in all eight career playoff games.
Magic Number 25
Over the team’s last seven games of the regular season, LA’s coaching staff started to trust Rui with a few more minutes per game and Rui rewarded it with a few more points. That’s also been the case for the entirety of Hachimura’s time with the Lakers. There’s a strong correlation between whether or not he plays at least 25 minutes.
In 10 games including the playoffs that Rui has played at least 25 minutes for the Lakers, he’s scored 14 points or more 80% of the time.
