Best NBA Player Props & Odds Boosts: Zion, Sabonis, Sengun On Monday Night
We are back with the year’s first player props article for NBA odds! The 2022-23 treated us well, as I compiled nearly 40 units with player props and best bets from January through the end of the NBA Playoffs. To tip off this season’s props, I hunted down my three favorite plays for Monday night, and they’re all under bets for some talented big men. Let’s dive right into it.
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NBA player prop odds for Monday
Use our player props search tool to find the best odds for NBA props on your favorite players. If you’re interested in betting spreads, TheLines.com’s Lead Writer Mo Nuwwarah is off to a 10-4-1 start to the season, and all his bets can be found in the #staff-basketball-bets channel of our free Discord.
Zion Williamson Under 4.5 Ast (-125 DraftKings | 1u)
We all get a little bit giddy thinking about “Point Zion.” It’s thrilling to watch such a massive player show the grace of a skilled PG. Which is precisely why I’m fading Zion’s assists prop in this scenario. While he may be a site to see, he just doesn’t climb over four assists very often. In five games this season, he’s only recorded 5+ assists once, when he posted eight against the Thunder. In his other four games, he’s averaged 2.8 APG.
You might wonder about C.J. McCollum’s absence in his one, assuming Zion’s assists must shoot up in that context. However, in four games without the Pelicans’ starting PG last season, Zion averaged the same number of dimes as those with McCollum.
New Orleans plays at Denver on Monday night, where the Nuggets’ home-floor advantage is possibly the most impactful in the league. They’re an insane 48-8 straight up at Ball Arena since last season, and 31-4 in the games that Jokic suited up. They also limited opponents to the second-fewest assists per game when they played in Denver.
Denver’s solid home defense is at least part of the reason Zion has failed to reach five assists in four of his five matchups with the defending champs.
Zion Assists: /
Damontas u7.5 Ast (+105 BetMGM | 1u) / SGP: Sabonis u9.5 Ast/SAC ML (+175 | .25u)
We have a couple of factors working in our favor by taking under eight dimes for Sabonis. These two squads are coming off a 107-89 affair just two days ago. Monday’s contest should end closer to that game’s total, rather than the 255 points they combined to average in four meetings last season. Kings PG De’Aaron Fox also played in all four regular-season games against Houston.
In two games without Fox this season, Sacramento has put up 95 points per game. In the three he played, they averaged 125. Even more telling, their pace went from the 5th fastest in the league (102.5) to the 2nd slowest (96.3).
Our next bit of value derives from the public putting too much emphasis on Sabonis’s increase in assists without Fox. Last year, the Kings’ big man went under in six of nine games without his PG. This year, one of two. The game he went over was against the Warriors. Since joining the Kings, Sabonis has averaged more assists versus Golden State than any other.
Sabonis Assists: Over/Under ( / )
Alperen Sengun Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110 BetMGM | 1u) / Over 2.5 Turnovers (+135 Bet365 | .5u)
Houston’s third-year big man appears to have taken a nice leap since his sophomore season in the NBA. He’s up to 33 minutes a night with averages of 18.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and an impressive 6 APG. Still, he’s only reached or exceeded 33 PRA combined once this year. That was against the Spurs, who play at the 8th fastest pace through six games. He also played 41 minutes in that game, which had a 26-point overtime period.
Sengun and the Rockets just played the Kings last Saturday in a 107-89 slugfest. Which, as was stated in the writeup above for Sabonis’s prop bet, was a direct result of De’Aaron Fox’s absence. Without Fox in the lineup for Sacramento, every game the Kings play is noticeably slower and choppier.
Sengun PRA: Over / Under ( / )
Sengun TOs: Over/Under ( / )
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