For the fifth time in his career, LeBron James will face a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA playoffs. The Lakers host the Nuggets for Game 4 on Monday night after Denver handed them their first home loss this postseason. I’ve got my sights on NBA player props for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Aaron Gordon in this one. KCP has been a usage monster this series, while Gordon has been far too busy defending King James to compile points and rebounds. Let’s get into it.
Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator. Find NBA odds here and use our player props search tool to find the best prices at legal sports betting sites.
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Nuggets At Lakers NBA Player Props
Game Notes
LA is once again favored over Denver at home, despite failing to cover -5 or even win in Game 3. The Lakers are favorites for Game 4, with a point total set at .
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Over 1.5 Made 3s (-130 FanDuel | 1.5u) // Made 3s H2H -0.5 Vs. Rui Hachimura (-115 DraftKings | 1u)
Here are Caldwell-Pope’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Lakers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Volume Shooter
KCP’s usage rate during this postseason has quietly crept up to 17.3%, third-highest on the Nuggets. That’s surprising when you consider his 13.2% usage during the regular season, lowest of any player on the team who averaged at least 20 minutes. Regardless, what’s not surprising is the amount of his shot attempts coming from deep — more than 50% in both cases.
In this series especially, KCP has been a volume 3-point shooter for Denver. His 6.7 3PA are third-highest behind only Jamal Murray (11) and Michael Porter Jr. (7.7). He’s also making 3 of them per game and has hit at least two 3s in each of his last four games, including the closer in Phoenix. Those stats would likely have been higher had he managed to stay on the floor and out of foul trouble in Game 2 of this series. He only saw 26 minutes that night thanks to three personal fouls by the beginning of the second quarter. Yet, he still managed to pull five treys, connecting on two of them.
H2H Player Props
If you haven’t seen this feature yet, DraftKings has an option for head-to-head player props available throughout these playoffs. In this case, I was looking for a way to bet over for KCP’s 3-pointer prop and fade Rui Hachimura’s.
Using the Odds Finder tool, I can see that Hachimura is -235 to make a 3-pointer and +190 not to make any. I would definitely hit the under before the over on that, but another way to play this is to use the H2H feature. For the bet I have listed, KCP needs to hit at least one more 3-pointer than Hachimura for this bet to cash.
Hachimura has been excellent this series and throughout the postseason whenever his number has been called. However, he’s not doing his damage from beyond the arc, but rather in the mid-range and around the rim. In fact, 82% of his shots have come from inside 20 feet. While he has hit exactly one 3 in each game this series, he’s only averaging two attempts.
At most, we can expect Hachimura to maybe hit one 3 this game on no more than two or three attempts. Meanwhile, there’s no reason to believe the Lakers will give KCP any extra attention as they continue put maximum effort into stopping Nikola Jokic and Murray. Meaning, he should be good for another six to eight attempts from deep. Even if he fails to keep shooting 45%, he should still hit at least two of them.
Josh Lander is 71-49 and up 25+ units betting NBA player props over the last 3 months. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Aaron Gordon Under 20.5 P+R+A (-120 DK | 1u) OR Under 19.5 P+R+A (-106 FD | 1u)
Here are Gordon’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Lakers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
- Points, Rebounds, and Assists Combo: /
Focused On LeBron
It would be completely unjust to attribute Gordon’s meager stats in the conference finals to it “not being his series.” His first and only directive from the Nuggets coaching staff is to focus all his efforts and energy on guarding James. You’ll have to excuse him if that job doesn’t leave him with a lot left in the tank to score and grab rebounds.
Defending James requires Gordon to essentially ignore everything else happening on the court. When James has the ball, he’s attached to his hip, focused on fighting through screens to avoid a switch that would leave a weaker defender on the all-time great. When LeBron is off-ball, Gordon is face-guarding him, choosing to leave other Lakers wide open rather than divert his focus away from his primary matchup. All of that worrying about James doesn’t allow him to chase rebounds on defense or get out in the fast break after a Lakers miss.
As a result, Gordon has failed to go over 20.5 P+R+A in every game this series. He’s also gone under in seven of eight since Game 2 of last series against Phoenix. His usage has dropped precipitously from 21% during the season to just 13%.
