We’ve got two NBA playoff Game 6s on Friday night. Both are from the Western Conference featuring two lower seeds looking to move on to the next round. We had a profitable Thursday picking NBA player props, taking us to 10-6 for the week. Let’s keep it rolling.
Kicking off the slate will be Warriors vs. Kings, followed by Lakers vs. Grizzlies. Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator.
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Grizzlies At Lakers NBA Player Props
Game Notes
The Lakers are hoping for a bounce-back game after getting blown out on Wednesday. LA is listed as favorites in the game, with a point total set at .
Los Angeles sported the third-oldest roster in the league this season and it showed in Game 5. The aging Lakers only managed 99 points and lost by 17. In his postgame interview afterward, LeBron James said simply “Tonight, I was shit. And I’ll be better in Game 6.”
I agree with LeBron. He will be much better at home on Friday, just not in the scoring department. I’m betting him to go under his points prop in Game 6 and under the total.
LeBron James Under 26.5 Points (-105 DraftKings | 1u)
Here are James’ core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Grizzlies:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
Tired Legs
Through the first five games, LeBron has only scored 27 or more once, in Game 2. Over the other four, he’s averaging less than 21 a night. He may be determined to will his team to a series-clinching victory tonight, but Father Time is finally calling for the King.
Los Angeles will play its third game in five days, with two separate travel days in between. The lack of rest seems to have affected LeBron’s ability to shoot from deep more than anything. Over the last three games, LeBron has connected on just 10% of his attempts from downtown, going 3-28. Tired legs combined with a stingy Memphis defense has made quality looks at the rim hard to come by as well.
LeBron continues to push the ball in transition, knowing there are few in the league who can slow him down on the fast break. However, we’ve seen the pace of this series slow down considerably. After Game 1’s blistering 102.5 pace, the grinding nature of the playoffs took its toll, slowing things down to a pace of 97 over the next four.
While I like the Lakers to win and move on, they’ve proven they don’t need LeBron to score a ton of points to be successful. Since the team’s championship run in 2020, he’s only scored 28 points or more 31% of the time and LA has still won two-thirds of its playoff games.
Josh Lander is 55-31 and up 26+ units betting NBA player props over the last two months. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Kings At Warriors NBA Player Props
Game Notes
Golden State looks to close out the Kings after winning for the first time on the road this postseason. The Warriors are listed as favorites in the game, with a point total set at .
Klay Thompson Over 23.5 Points (-110 DK | 1.5u) // Parlay: 25+ Points/GSW ML (+158 FanDuel | .5u)
Here are Klay’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Kings:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Klay got off to a slow start this postseason. He failed to score more than 21 points in the first three games, averaging just 18. I actually predicted that would be the case based on Klay’s recent history in the playoffs and against the Kings on the road. But that was a week ago and a lot can change in a week, especially when your team plays nearly every other day.
Since then, he’s put up 26 in Game 4 and 25 in Game 5. He also posted incredible shooting splits of 56% FG/45% 3P. Klay was forcing up a ton of contested threes in the first three games, pulling 70% of his attempts from beyond the arc. Over the last two games, he finally chose to take what the defense gave him and lowered that number to 55%. Instead of shooting with a defender flying at him, he would take a dribble forward and sink an easy mid-range.
He also would’ve had more last game if he could’ve stayed out of foul trouble. At the end of the second quarter, Klay scored 11 points in under 3 minutes before picking up his third personal. His hot shooting continued in the second half, but he once again took unnecessary risks and had to sit with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter. Expect head coach Steve Kerr to emphasize to his All-Star shooting guard how much the team needs him on the floor before Friday’s affair.
Game 6 Klay
The Warriors don’t often play in Game 7s in the playoffs. Since 2015 when it won its first title, Golden State has only played in a Game 7 three times. Instead, they tend to close things out in Game 6, going 9-2 in those situations.
Klay has been a major reason for that success. In the team’s last six instances of playing in a Game 6, he’s averaging 28 PPG in 39 minutes. He’s averaged more than six made 3s as well, including three separate occasions where he made at least nine of them.
