The NBA playoffs roll along on Friday night with three games to end your work week. We hit the over on Cam Johnson’s points and the under on Steph Curry’s assists on Thursday for a third straight sweep. Make it 9-1 the last three nights, good for more than +9 units on NBA player props!
The Celtics at Hawks kicks off the slate, but I’ve got my attention on the ensuing matchups, Timberwolves vs. Nuggets and the Knicks vs. Cavaliers. Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator.
Let’s start in Minnesota where Jamal Murray and the Nuggets are up 2-0 against the T’wolves. Game 3 tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET with the the Nuggets listed as favorites in the game. It features a point total set at .
Murray was sensational in the first two games of this series. Let’s dive into why I’m riding with Playoff Murray again on Friday night. Find NBA odds here and use our player props search tool to find the best odds for NBA props on your favorite players.
Nuggets At Timberwolves NBA Player Props
Below are the available NBA player props for the game between the Nuggets at Timberwolves.
Jamal Murray Over 23.5 Pts (-110 PointsBet | 1u) // Over 3.5 Made 3s (+134 FanDuel | .5u)
Here are Murray’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Timberwolves:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
- Made 3s: Over/Under /
There’s been much debate around the 2020 NBA playoffs since games were played without fans that postseason. Some players performed well above their pay grade, aided by a lack of noise and distractions, many thought.
Jamal Murray’s name comes up in that debate a lot. He averaged 26.5 points and dropped two 50-burgers in the Nuggets’ series against Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz. Murray lost the chance to defend his 2020 resume the following season when he injured his ACL just days before the playoffs started. He missed the subsequent playoffs as well.
Murray has been back to his old playoff ways. The Nuggets only needed him for 24 points in 33 minutes in Game 1. Game 2, however, saw a vintage Playoff Murray performance. He put up 40 points in 39 minutes.
The Timberwolves will be fighting for their season to continue in Game 3 and should give the Nuggets a decent game at the very least. It’s time for Denver’s stars to match that intensity and put this series basically to bed. Give me the over on Murray’s points prop.
Road Jamal
Role players often play better at home in the NBA, especially in the playoffs. That leaves the burden of carrying the offense to stars like Murray when his team is on the road. In his last nine playoff games, Murray has averaged 30 points per contest with a 30% usage rate. That’s a notable jump from the 24% usage he posted during the regular season.
If there was any doubt that Murray would get back to peak form and aggression this postseason, he dispelled it with 44 combined shot attempts in the first two games.
More Threes, Please
Murray’s efficiency from deep heavily contributed to his high scoring totals in Denver. He connected on 10 of 20 attempts from beyond the arc in the first two games. He went over on Friday night’s 3-point prop in both games as well.
Making 50% of your 3s is preposterously good, but not for Playoff Murray on the road. In those last nine playoff games on the road, he’s averaging more than four 3-pointers per game while connecting on 49% of them.
Minnesota had one of the better 3-point defenses in the league to end the season. But, we’re getting great juice for Murray to make the same amount of 3-pointers that he’s been averaging in road playoff games recently. It’s definitely worth half a unit.
Josh Lander is 46-19 and up 29+ units betting NBA player props over the last six weeks. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Cavs At Knicks NBA Player Props
RJ Barrett and the New York Knicks are back at Madison Square Garden for Game 3 after stealing the home court advantage from the Cavs. Tip is set for 8:30 p.m. E.T. with the Knicks as underdogs at home, and a point total set at . Here is the the full odds table for Cavs at Knicks.
RJ Barrett Under 15.5 Pts (+100 PointsBet | .5u) // u22.5 PRA (-110 PointsBet | 1u)
Here are Barrett’s core points, rebounds, assists, and made threes props for the game against the Cavs:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Knicks players and coaches have to be happy they’re back in New York with at least one victory over the Cavs in Cleveland. The team now has the home court advantage in the series and could technically clinch the series at home if it can win the next two games at MSG.
They’ll have to be a lot better in Game 3 than they were in Game 2, though. The Cavs exposed the Knicks’ anemic offense by smothering Jalen Brunson, forcing other Knicks players to try to beat them. And those other Knicks players, such as RJ Barrett, failed miserably to do so.
Barrett’s playoff career got off to a miserable start against Atlanta in the 2021 Playoffs. Two years later, it hasn’t gotten any better. I’ll take under RJ Barrett’s points prop and points, rebounds, and assists prop for Game 3 in the Big Apple.
- Follow TheLines.com on Twitter for more NBA betting content.
Can The Knicks Keep Playing Barrett?
In seven postseason games, Barrett has averaged 13.3 points in 32 minutes per game. In the first two games of this series, that average is down to 10 points per game. He’s scored more than 15 points twice in the postseason, both against the Hawks in 2021.
If Barrett is to turn things around, he’s going to have an extra hard time doing so against Cleveland. In 14 career games versus the Cavs, Barrett averages 15 points per game with four boards and two assists. He’s gone over 15 points just four times and 22 PRA in only three.
In the first two games of this series, things only got worse. Barrett shot 24% from the field and went a combined 1-for-8 from deep with an individual offensive rating of 94. For context, the worst team offensive rating in the league this season was 108.4, posted by the Charlotte Hornets. There’s no way Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau can keep Barrett in Game 3 for 32 minutes if he continues to shoot that way.
What Would You Say You Do Here?
Cleveland’s game plan for defending Barrett has been to simply throw a combination of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell at him. The two guards spent a combined 20 minutes on Barrett between the first two games, limiting him to eight points over that span.
It’s not like Barrett’s defense has been stellar either as he’s tasked with guarding Garland for this series. He didn’t have much to do in Game 1 as Garland was forced to watch Mitchell put up 30 shots en route to a Cavs’ defeat. In Game 2, however, Garland ate his lunch, dropping 26 of his 32 points in the first half.
If Barrett comes out cold once more against the Cavs, don’t be surprised if Thibodeau pulls him early.
Celtics at Hawks Player Props
The opening game on Friday is in Atlanta where the Hawks and Celtics will meet for Game 3 at 7 p.m. E.T. Boston is favored by with a point total set at . I won’t be betting any props in this one.
