This year’s NBA conference finals could end with two series sweeps after Denver won Game 4 on Monday night. On Tuesday, the Heat and Celtics will play their own Game 4 as Miami enjoys a 3-0 series lead. I have three separate NBA player props for this one, headlined by Heat superstar Jimmy Butler.
Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator. Find NBA odds here and use our player props search tool to find the best prices at legal sports betting sites.
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Celtics At Heat NBA Player Props
Game Notes
Miami is finally receiving its due respect after being listed as the underdog for the first three games of this series. The Heat are a favorite, with the point total set at .
Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 Rebounds (+115 DraftKings | 1u)
Here are Butler’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Celtics:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Jimmy Time
There are a couple of factors working in favor of Butler snatching more than seven boards tonight. Let’s start with the fact that Game 4 is a potential series-clincher for Miami, a scenario wherein Butler has been incredibly effective. Looking at the last seven games that were either potential series-clinchers or elimination games for his team, including two in this year’s play-in, he’s averaged 38.3 points per game and 8.7 rebounds. The only two games in which he failed to grab more than seven boards were those two play-in games.
He’s also notched this over in five of his last seven against Boston, dating back to last year’s final two ECF games.
Lastly, Heat forward Kevin Love only played five minutes in Game 3 after leaving with an ankle injury. Coach Erik Spoelstra said he’s fine to play Game 4, but it doesn’t seem likely we’ll see much of him regardless of how this one shakes out. Butler recorded eight boards exactly after Love’s exit, despite only playing 31 minutes himself. As the team’s de facto power forward when Love is on the bench, Butler should see at least 40 minutes and have a big game on the glass.
Josh Lander is 74-49 and up 28+ units betting NBA player props over the last 3 months. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Grant Williams Over 4.5 Points (+100 BetMGM | 1u)
Here is Williams’ points prop for the game against the Heat. At the time this article was written, only BetMGM had odds listed for his player props:
- Points: Over/Under /
Heart & Hustle
Williams put up 9 and 12 points in Games 2 and 3, respectively, the only two in which he’s played this series. Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla refused to put him on the floor in Game 1. He’s been one of the few Celtics players to showcase the required level of intensity that merits the privilege to play in a conference finals. If Boston is going down swinging, Mazzulla has to know his backup forward is the most likely guy to throw the heaviest haymakers.
Williams played at least 20 minutes in just four games this postseason, including the last two. He comfortably went over this prop in three of those four, averaging more than eight points in all of them. If we can pencil him in for at least 25 minutes in Game 4, I’d give him a better-than 75% chance to score more than five points.
Caleb Martin Over 12.5 Pts (+102 FD | 1u) // Over 18.5 P+R+A (-110 FD | .5u)
Here are Martin’s points, and points, rebounds, and assists combo props for the game against the Celtics:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Points, Rebounds, and Assists Combo: Over/Under /
More Martin, Please
It’s unreasonable to expect Caleb Martin to continue posting the same astronomical shooting percentages as the first three games (63% FG/48% 3P). We don’t really need him to, though. Not with the minutes he’s soaked up and the higher-than-normal usage rate he’s enjoyed. He’s up from 27 minutes through the team’s first 11 games to 32.7 minutes against Boston. He’s also up to an 18.4% usage, including back-to-back games with seven attempts from deep.
With Love hobbled and Martin the team’s third-best rebounder after Butler and Adebayo, there’s no reason to believe those usage numbers will dwindle now. I’m also throwing half of a unit on his P+R+A combo prop as a means to hedge against the chance that he has his first poor shooting performance in awhile.
