The Boston Celtics may have gotten on the scoreboard with a Game 4 victory over the Miami Heat, but this series is still a game away from being a game away. The Celtics return home for Game 5, where they have a 44% winning percentage in these playoffs. I’m back to betting on a few NBA players props that have proven successful for me throughout the postseason in Grant Williams and Max Strus.
Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator. Find NBA odds here and use our player props search tool to find the best prices at legal sports betting sites.
- Follow TheLines.com on Twitter for more NBA betting content.
Heat At Celtics NBA Player Props
Game Notes
After entering last game as underdogs for the first time in the series, the Celtics return home as heavy favorites on Thursday. Boston is a favorite for Game 5, with the point total set at .
Grant Williams Over 8.5 Points (+110 PointsBet | 1.5u) // 10+ Points (+190 FanDuel | .5u)
Here are Williams’ points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Heat:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Early On Grant
By the time this article comes out, Grant Williams’ core points prop likely won’t be available at 8.5 any longer. Hopefully you saw the video Nate and I recorded on Wednesday as we took advantage of a few early lines such as this one. I’m also going to sprinkle a small amount on him to recored 10+ points — a healthy +190 on FanDuel Sportsbook (Editor’s note: this is +175 at the time of posting).
4th-Best Celtic
Most of us hoop-heads wondered why we didn’t see Williams in Game 1. After he racked up more than 10 points per game in nearly 30 minutes per over the next three, it appears we were correct to question Joe Mazzulla’s prior decision to keep him on the bench. At 4.5 points, this prop was low enough for us to bet a few units with confidence before Game 4. Now at 7.5 points for Game 5, I still like the over and am also happy to include an alt points bet for him to score 10.
Other Celtics on the roster have more talent, but none have brought more gusto. As a result, he not only played the fourth-most minutes for the C’s last time out, he also attempted the fifth-most shots, including 4-of-6 from beyond the arc.
Mazzulla has been anything but consistent with his lineups throughout the beginning of his postseason coaching tenure. It’s been difficult to trust anyone outside of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart to play consistent minutes. However, he seems to finally have placed the appropriate amount of trust in G-Will, allowing us to “follow his minutes” and hopefully, the points that come with them.
Josh Lander is 77-50 and up 31+ units betting NBA player props over the last 3 months. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Max Strus Over 11.5 Points (-104 FanDuel | 1.5u)
Here are Strus’ core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Celtics:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
Biding Our Time To Bet On Max
It’s been almost a full week since Strus has been a part of these player props articles. I took the over for his points ahead of Game 2 and he fell one bucket shy of cashing that for a seventh-straight time. Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson both saw heavy minutes and usage rates that night, causing me to shift my wagers elsewhere for the next two games.
Now, however, it’s time to get back on the Strus train.
A few things have happened to point the EV arrow back towards Strus. Most notably, the gruesome-looking ankle turn Vincent suffered less than 48 hours ago. He remains questionable for tonight’s affair (Editor’s note: now listed out). He’d been on a tear the previous two, leading all scorers with 29 points in Game 3 then posting 17 in 28 minutes before leaving late in Game 4.
Robinson, meanwhile, has had a short leash in this series. He only saw seven minutes in the first game after missing his first two attempts from deep. It was a similar story last game when he only played 11 minutes after missing his first four. Those happen to be the two games in which Strus played at least 34 minutes. In the middle two games, Robinson was red-hot, combining to hit 8-of-13 treys in 45 minutes. In those, Strus played less than 28 minutes.
All of this adds up to a likely bump in the combined minutes and usage for Strus. Meaning, we should see him pull a few more times than the eight total attempts he’s averaged over the last three.
More NBA Player Props
With just a few NBA games left to bet on this season, I’ve pulled most of the units I had allocated to betting on MLB for the next few weeks over to hoops. I’m also planning to hit these props with my newly available basketball funds:
- Caleb Martin* (2u): Over P+R+A *see Tuesday’s writeup on Martin HERE
- Kevin Love (2u): Under P+R
- Marcus Smart (1u): Over R+A
