Three potential series-clinching Game 5’s fill the NBA playoffs odds board on Tuesday night. Let’s stay hot with a few more NBA player props.
The two Western Conference matchups will end the night with Nuggets vs. Timberwolves and Suns vs. Clippers. My two favorite props, however, are from the one Eastern Conference game, the Celtics vs. Hawks. Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator.
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Hawks At Celtics NBA Player Props
In Boston, Atlanta hopes to avoid a Gentleman’s Sweep The Hawks are listed as underdogs in the game, with a point total set at .
The Hawks will be without starting guard, Dejounte Murray, who was suspended one game for his altercation with a referee in Game 4. Bogdan Bogdanovic will replace him in the starting lineup and is expected to take on the majority of Murray’s in-game responsibilities, namely scoring. Meanwhile, center Clint Capela’s career struggles against Boston have continued to play out in this series.
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 16.5 Points (-113 FanDuel | 1u)
Here are Bogdanovic’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Celtics:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
Many didn’t think the series between Boston and Atlanta would make it to Game 5, but here we are. If Atlanta hadn’t won the second quarter of Game 3 by 11 points, this series probably wouldn’t have made it back to Boston. Instead, the Hawks will have a chance to keep their season going if they can win in Boston for the first time in their last five attempts.
Playing without Dejounte Murray will not make things any easier, either. For the series, Murray is leading the Hawks in minutes, field goal attempts, made three-pointers, and steals. He’s also second in scoring, rebounds, and assists. In eight games without Murray this season, Atlanta won just three.
Boston has spent the majority of its defensive focus on limiting Trae Young’s ability to shoot from deep or get in the lane off pick and rolls. That has left Murray free to take nearly 23 shots a night over the first four games. The Hawks will sorely miss Murray’s recent surge in three-point shooting. This postseason, he’s up to 3.3 made-threes on 8.3 attempts (39.4%).
Bogdan Bogdanovic is no scrub himself, though. Bogey had a poor regular season compared to his career averages, scoring less than 15 points per game for the first time since joining Atlanta. But, that decline was in large part due to the addition of Murray combined with an injury that caused him to miss 28 games, the most of his career. If Bogdanovic is going to get the majority of the shots that Murray was taking, I would expect him to make even more of them. For the series, he’s making 2.8 threes at a 48% clip.
Bogey has always been known as a lethal shooter, connecting on 39% from deep for his career. Murray has not, only making 33% of his threes since joining the league. If Bogdanovic can simply maintain his career three-point percentage while dipping into Murray’s usage rate, he’s on his way to a stellar scoring night.
Give me Over Bogdanovic’s points prop for Game 5 in Boston.
Atlanta’s Best Option
Bogdanovic took full advantage of his increased minutes without Murray in the lineup this season. In the eight games Murray missed, Bogey upped his scoring to 22 points per game from the 13 points he averaged alongside Murray. I would expect Bogdanovic to play at least 32 minutes on Tuesday, much closer to his average on the season in Murray’s absences than the 25 minutes he’s averaged in this series.
Atlanta was already relying heavily on Bogey’s scoring in this series before Murray was suspended. Despite coming off the bench for the Hawks, he’s still posting the fourth-highest usage rate with 51/48/100 shooting splits.
Even if Bogey wasn’t shooting so well, the Hawks would have no choice but to call on him for heavy minutes in Game 5. Atlanta’s only other option to supplant Murray’s position on the wing would be Saddiq Bey. Considering Bey has a 130 individual defensive rating and has been a welcome mat to the rim for the Celtics this series, don’t expect coach Quin Snyder to turn to him much.
The Adult In The Room
Bogdanovic’s home and road splits were stark this season, a trend that continued into the postseason. On the road, Bogey averaged 15 points in 29 minutes per contest during the regular season. That’s a noticeable difference from the 12 points in 25 minutes he averaged at home.
That trend has continued in the playoffs. In the first two games of this series in Boston, Bogey put up 15 points in 30 minutes, compared to 12 points in 26 minutes over the next two in Atlanta. I’m banking on Snyder turning to his veteran shooting guard in a must-win-game away from home.
Josh Lander is 48-29 and up 21+ units betting NBA player props over the last seven weeks. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.Editor’s Note
Clint Capela Under 21.5 Points and Rebounds Combo (-110 BetMGM | 1u)
Here are Capela’s core points, rebounds, and assists props for the game against the Celtics:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
- Points and Rebounds Combo: Over/Under /
It’s been a tough series for Hawks center, Clint Capela. Without the ball skills or footwork to create shots for himself, he relies heavily on his guards to get him open for easy buckets around the rim. Usually that means a pick and roll with Trae Young to create an imbalance within the opposing defense that gives Clint a step ahead of his defender to the basket.
The problem with that strategy in this series is that Boston is tailor-made to defend it. That’s why Capela has not only struggled against the Celtics in this postseason, but for the last 3 seasons overall.
I earned a small pile of units fading Clint Capela during the regular season in these types of scenarios. Let’s keep those good times rolling on Tuesday night and go under his points and rebounds combo prop.
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Papa Al Horford
To find the culprit responsible for Capela’s woes against Boston, look no further than savvy veteran, Al Horford. In his last 10 games against the Celtics, Capela has gone over Tuesday’s prop just once and Horford was unavailable to play in that game. In the other nine games, Horford was on the floor defending Capela the majority of the time. In those nine, Capela put up just eight points and eight rebounds over 25 minutes a night.
Horford is the key to Boston’s “drop coverage.” Drop coverage defense is a tactic teams will use to defend against a screen and roll offense, which is Atlanta’s main style of play. When Capela runs up to the top of the key to screen for the ball handler (who is usually Trae Young), Horford doesn’t chase him, but rather stands on the foul line, waiting for the screen to materialize. Capela inevitably rolls to the basket after setting the pick, where he’s often free to run straight to the rim. Against Boston, however, he’s met by Horford 15 feet from the basket where he’s completely useless.
Stop Trae, Stop Capela
As a result of Atlanta’s pick-and-roll offense, Capela’s stats are heavily reliant on Trae Young’s performance. Trae struggled mightily in Boston in the first two games of this series, scoring just 20 points per game with seven assists. Celtics guard Derrick White has been the main defender on Young, sticking to his jersey wherever he roams on the floor. White forced the ball out of Young’s hands early and often, limiting his ability to drive into the Celtics defense and lob it up to a cutting Capela.
If Boston shoots out to an early lead like I think they will in Game 5, expect to see a lot less Capela. At that point, the Hawks will be scrambling to get its own shooters on the floor to keep their season alive and Capela will be an even smaller portion of the team’s game plan.
Best of luck betting NBA player props on Tuesday night.