Game 2 between the Celtics and 76ers will feature as the only NBA playoff game Wednesday night. Joel Embiid is currently expected to play barring any setbacks between now and tip-off. Makes sure to follow the injury report closely as Embiid’s presence (or lack thereof) will have a major impact on the speed of tonight’s contest as well any NBA player props.
We had another 1-2 night on Tuesday. Thankfully, Anthony Davis’s double-double in a Lakers’ victory kept us from dropping more than a unit. We strive on! Plays are listed in order of my confidence. But, make sure to also note the amount of units I’m wagering on each bet as another indicator.
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76ers At Celtics NBA Player Props
Game Notes
Before news broke that Embiid will play, Boston was listed as -10 favorites. Now, the Celtics are favored at , with a point total set at .
Live Betting The Total
It’s interesting that the point total hasn’t moved. Philadelphia plays at a notably faster pace and is considerably worse on defense without Embiid. I plan on waiting to make a live bet in this one. If the NBA MVP perseveres through 35 minutes or more, I like the under for the game total. We should know pretty quickly if he’s capable of performing at his normal level.
James Harden Over 29.5 Points + Assists Combo (-105 DraftKings | 1u) // Over 8.5 Assists (+120 DK | .5 u)
Here are Harden’s core points, rebounds, assists, and points + assists combo props for the game against the Celtics:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
- Points + Assists Combo: Over/Under /
Harden vs. Boston
Let me start by apologizing to those who tailed my “Harden under” pick for his points prop in Game 1. I failed to properly weigh Harden’s love of playing the Celtics, particularly in Boston. It’s a mistake I won’t be making again, especially in a game that has slightly less meaning with Philly now in the driver’s seat of this series.
Harden averaged nearly 11 assists in 51 games with Embiid on the floor this season. That’s two more than he averaged in 10 games without his starting center. We still don’t really know how hobbled Embiid will be tonight, meaning we don’t really know which Harden to expect. That’s why I like grabbing the over on his points and assists combo prop.
Through Philly’s first five postseason games, Harden averages 31.5 P+A and has gone over 29 in all five. In his last five against the Celtics, he’s averaging 38, which would comfortably get us over Wednesday’s prop. Embiid played in four of those five games, indicating Harden is capable of getting over 29 P+A with or without him.
So Much Potential
Taking the over on his assists alone is a slightly riskier bet, but there’s good reason to believe Harden can get nine. While he’s only averaging 8.2 in the playoffs, he’s fifth in potential assists with more than 12 per contest. He also led the league in potential assists during the regular season.
A potential assist is a pass made to a teammate that would’ve been an assist if the recipient had scored, rather than missing his shot or getting fouled during the attempt. If his teammates can make one more shot in these situations, something that should be made easier with Embiid on the floor, Harden is a good bet for nine assists.
Josh Lander is 58-39 and up 22+ units betting NBA player props over the last two months. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Editor’s Note
Al Horford Over 1.5 Made 3s (-145 DraftKings |1.5u) // 3+ Made 3s (+165 DraftKings | .5u) // Over 8.5 Points (+106 FanDuel | 1u)
Here are Horford’s core points, rebounds, assists, and made 3s props for the game against the 76ers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: /
- Assists: Over/Under /
- Made 3s: Over/Under /
Horford vs. Embiid
Horford had a solid Game 1 over his 30 minutes of run. As Boston’s primary defender on Embiid, expect his playing time only to increase in Game 2. More importantly, expect his usage rate to jump up. Over his last four games against Embiid, he’s posted a usage rate above 14%, higher than his 9% in the playoffs overall.
Embiid is unwilling to play defense any higher than the free throw line in most cases, leaving Horford open around the 3-point line. As a result, 82% of Horford’s shot attempts have been from deep over his last five games against Embiid’s 76ers. He’s recorded at least two made 3s in all five seven of the last eight such meetings.
