We’ve got a packed slate of NBA player props on Friday night, and I’m eyeing a few player props from Thunder vs. Pacers and Knicks vs. Cavaliers. Josh Giddey and Oklahoma City head to Indiana at 7:00 p.m. EDT. The Thunder is a favorite with a point total set at . In Cleveland, Quentin Grimes and New York will preview a first-round playoffs matchup at 7:30 p.m. EDT. The Knicks are underdogs in the game, which features a point total set at .
Let’s dive further into why I’m fading Giddey and riding with Grimes on Friday. Find NBA odds here and use our player props search tool to find the best odds for NBA props on your favorite players.
Josh Lander is 21-7 and up 13+ units betting NBA player props over the last three weeks. Check out the NBA Coast 2 Coast podcast each and every weekday with co-host Nate Weitzer and give him a follow on Twitter, @jlboogy. Click on the odds below to bet now.Editor’s Note
Thunder At Pacers
Below are the available player props for the game between the Thunder and Pacers.
Josh Giddey Under 38.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (1u)
Here are Giddey’s core points, rebounds and assists props for the game against the Pacers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: /
- Points, Rebounds, and Assists: Over/Under /
It’s unclear whether the Oklahoma City Thunder is trying to make the Play-In Tournament or not. All-Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could miss his fourth game over the Thunder’s last five (upgraded from Out to Questionable Friday afternoon), while the team is in jeopardy of falling out of the 10-seed and into the lottery.
The tanking Pacers probably won’t provide much resistance without most of their best players on the floor, but OKC has struggled against bad competition lately. On Wednesday, the Thunder barely beat the league-worst Detroit Pistons one night after losing to the Hornets.
Josh Giddey has stepped up his play the past few weeks whether SGA is on the floor or not. That’s part of the reason his props are so high combined with playing one of the worst defenses in the league.
Too high, in my opinion, even against the Pacers at this point in the season. Let’s go with the under for Josh Giddey’s points, rebounds, and assists combo prop.
No Difference Without Shai
No Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would not necessarily mean more stats for Josh Giddey. The second-year point guard out of Australia has roughly the same stats with and without SGA on the floor this season, combining for about 30 points, rebounds, and assists per game.
That is nine points, rebounds, or assists shy of where this prop opened at 38.5 on most books.
In his last 10 games, Giddey has only gotten over this total twice. Expand that further to his last 20 times, and he’s still only going over that number at a 20% clip.
The Pacers have been awful defending point guards the last seven games, allowing the third-most points to the position over that time. However, on the season as a whole, they’re still in the top 12 in limiting points to the position.
Over At Home, Under On The Road
We’ve seen some crazy-high game totals from both the Thunder and Pacers this season. Both teams score a lot more when playing in their own buildings, especially the Thunder.
Oklahoma City averages 121 points per game at home and just 113 on the road.
Giddey doesn’t really vary his output based on his location, putting up the same 30 combined points, rebounds, and assists wherever he plays. He does put up 3 fewer assists on the road, but grabs a couple of more rebounds as well.
This total is just too high, even against a Pacers team that is barely trying down the stretch.
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Knicks At Cavaliers
Quentin Grimes Over 12.5 Points
Here are Grimes’s core points, rebounds and assists props for the game against the Cavaliers:
- Points: Over/Under /
- Rebounds: Over/Under /
- Assists: Over/Under /
There will likely be a lot of gamesmanship when the Cavs and Knicks tip off on Friday night. The two are set to face each other in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs and neither team will want to show its hand too much.
One thing we can rely upon is that the Knicks will need Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley to put up points if they have a shot to win without All-Star forward Julius Randle. Randle and his 26 points per game won’t be available in Cleveland after he sprained his ankle on Wednesday in Miami.
Grimes will get the start and is going to be called upon for big minutes in Cleveland. At 6’5″ Tom Thibodeau will need his size and defense to contend with the Cavs’ dynamite backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.
With a ton of minutes coming his way, I’m taking the over on Quentin Grimes’ points prop Friday night.
Time To Step Up
Grimes came up huge for the Knicks after Randle went down against the Heat at the end of the first half. He played 36 minutes in the game and dropped 23 points, second on the team behind Quickley.
14 of his 23 points came after Randle went down, too.
Randle hasn’t missed a game this season so there are no stats for how Grimes has performed in his absence, but he’s made a habit of filling in nicely for Jalen Brunson when he’s been forced to sit out.
In 11 games without Brunson this season, Grimes has upped his scoring from 9 points per game to nearly 14. While it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison because Randle is a forward, it’s clear that Grimes understands when the team needs more from him.
Hit Them Where They’re Weak
The Cavaliers and Knicks have two of the best defenses in the league, particularly down low near the rim. If there’s one area on the floor the Cavs are vulnerable, though, it’s the perimeter.
Over the team’s most recent seven-game stretch, the Cavs are allowing the second-most points to shooting guards. They’re also allowing their opponents to connect on a high percentage of their threes, giving up the fourth-highest shooting percentage from deep since the All-Star break.
Grimes had already begun to improve his nightly stats before Randle sprained his ankle on Wednesday. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 21 points, six rebounds, and better than four assists in 34 minutes. Add in his 20% usage rate during that time and you can feel good about Grimes going over such a low scoring prop on Friday.
Best of luck with your NBA player props tonight.