Best NBA Player Prop Bets For Monday Night: AD, Jokic, Pacers Same Game Parlay

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Written By Josh Lander | Last Updated
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NBA odds tonight brings us a five-game slate, at least three of which should be entertaining. A few big names are still questionable to play, including Nikola Jokic, so always stay on top of injury news up until tip-offs. I have three-player prop bets from three different matchups, including a four-leg same game parlay with betting odds from Pacers vs. Trail Blazers. We scratched our way to plus units last week on the back of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s assist ladder. Let’s get ourselves a sweep tonight!

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NBA Bet: Nikola Jokic under 9.5 assists (1 unit)

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Editor’s Note

Before dismissing the notion of an under bet for Joker, read me out. The two-time MVP has failed to record 10 assists in five straight meetings with the Clippers. In those five games, he’s averaging eight per game. More importantly for this projection, he’s only averaged 11 potential assists against them during that time. It’s challenging to record a 100% assist rate on 11 potential assists.

These numbers aren’t a fluke, either. L.A. limits its opponents to the seventh fewest assists per game. That’s in large part due to Ty Lue’s defensive schemes, which force opposing offenses into the fifth-worst FG%.

Jokic is still questionable after a torrid affair between the Nuggets and Spurs on Sunday night. The big man played 35 minutes with an insane 42.5% usage rate and only five free throws. He did drop 39 points but still only managed nine assists in a game played at a blistering 105 pace. I wouldn’t expect nearly as much offense on Monday against the Clippers’ 99 average pace.

There’s also a correlation between Jokic’s drop in assists and Jamal Murray’s availability. Denver’s starting point guard was averaging 21 PPG before missing the last 10 with an injury. Joker is forced to score more in his absence, diminishing his focus on setting up others. Prior to Murray’s absence, Joker was averaging 16 potential assists per contest. Since then, he’s down to 13.

Nuggets vs. Clippers Player Props

NBA Bet: Anthony Davis over blocks (1 unit) / 3+ blocks (.3 units)

In the past, Anthony Davis has expressed his displeasure at playing center too often. However, in Monday’s meeting with Joel Embiid and the 76ers, he won’t have much of a choice. Such has been the case for AD in his last four matchups with the reigning MVP, and in all four, he posted at least two blocks. He’s also averaged more than 3.3 blocks per game over 36 minutes of action during that span.

Davis has to be on the floor on the floor to guard Philly’s big man, meaning whenever Joel is on the floor, so is AD. As a result of his defensive responsibilities, he’s also consistently much closer to the paint and the rim. This puts him in a great position to help out when Philly’s guards and wings drive to the hoop, upping his weakside blocks.

As a team, the 76ers attempt the fourth-most field goals inside of five feet. That’s fairly unsurprising when you consider who their primary guys are on offense: Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Embiid attempts the fourth-most shots inside five feet of any player in the league. As the team’s starting PG, Maxey’s attempts aren’t quite that high, but he does rank sixth among guards for shot attempts inside the paint.

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NBA Same Game Parlay: Bruce Brown 2+ Assists / Myles Turner 5+ Rebounds / Indiana Moneyline / Indiana ALT Team Total Over 120.5 (1 unit)

Altogether, this parlay should net you +144 on DraftKings.

Starting with Bruce Brown’s assists, the former Nugget took a few games to find his groove within the high-powered Pacers’ offense. After recording just seven assists in his first five games with Indiana, Brown has put up at least two dimes in eight of his last 10. The two games in which he failed to hit two or more were against the Magic (top five in limiting assists), and Spurs, when he saw just 24 minutes in a 40-point blowout.

Myles Turner has grabbed at least five rebounds in 11 of his 13 games played. Deandre “Domin-Ayton” has allowed opposing centers to grab the fifth most boards per game this year. That’s a huge reason for the Trail Blazer’s abysmal rebound percentage, which is fifth worst. Turner is up to nearly 15 rebound chances per game, with a 55% success rate on those chances.

Finally, the Pacers should pull out an easy victory over the young Trail Blazers. Portland is on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing by six in Milwaukee. Indiana is listed as a 12-point favorite at home and has established itself as the best transition offense in the league. Portland, on the other hand, could reasonably be accused of having the worst transition defense in the league. The Blazers allow the fourth-most transition buckets and forfeit far and away the highest opponent field goal percentage (61.3%). Teams are scoring 56% of the time when they get on the break, which is also good for the highest percentage allowed in the NBA.

Best of luck betting NBA player prop bets.

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