Best Lions Anytime Touchdown Prop Bets For NFC Championship: Will Amon-Ra St. Brown Score?

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
lions anytime touchdown

After making their first NFC Championship game since 1991, the Detroit Lions are trying to defy Super Bowl 58 odds too. Against the San Francisco 49ers, they will need to score efficiently as touchdown underdogs at betting sites. The Over/Under in the game sits at a high , making Lions anytime touchdown odds a fun market to consider betting on Sunday.

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Lions Anytime Touchdown Strategy

The Lions’ offense has been efficient recently, scoring three or more touchdowns in five of their last six games. Their best chance at a victory likely lies in their offense. Their defense was outside the top 10 by regular season EPA. At a paltry 21st, they will need to score to have a chance.

David Montgomery still has a first crack, it seems, at the starting running back job, getting more carries in both playoff games this year. This could be key in predicting who will get goal-line work, an important angle for winning anytime touchdown bets. That said, Craig Reynolds got a goalline rush last week, so predictions of the goal-to-go preferences should be kept to a modicum of confidence.

Regarding the game script, the Lions are touchdown underdogs, which should mean more passing. If you’re leaning to longshots, there’s a non-zero chance the Lions can connect on a deep shot, which makes more sense than hoping a backup gets usage in close.

Lions anytime touchdown bets to consider

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ()

The Lions’ top wideout has averaged eight catches in the last five weeks, a usage rate that makes betting on him an incredibly sustainable proposition. Beyond the fact that he’s gotten in the end zone four of those five weeks, his usage suggests there’s little reason other than offensive failure to fade him. Jared Goff has clear chemistry with St. Brown, and as the games have gotten more important, he’s been used more.

The Niners were vulnerable against top wideouts down the stretch of the season, giving up 83 yards to Romeo Doubs, 72 to Zay Flowers, and 61 to Terry McLaurin in their last three (competitive) games. St. Brown should get opportunities to get into the end zone this week. Whether he can get in is unclear, but if he fails, it won’t be for lack of opportunity.

RB David Montgomery ()

Montgomery is still getting most of the rushing work in the playoffs, even though he’s significantly less efficient and explosive than Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs got a long TD last week, but both scored against the Rams. When projecting the future, usage is more important than efficiency, so Montgomery makes some sense.

The Lions’ offense does comport itself well to rushing TDs. The efficient, lower depth of target passing game elements within their scheme means they don’t score bomb TDs as often as other teams. It also increases the chances there are rushes to be had in goal-to-go situations. With that on the table, there are plenty of opportunities for a Lions running back to get into the end zone. Given the usage, I’m going to go back to Montgomery.

WR Josh Reynolds ()

Reynolds got into the end zone last week, but that’s not the real reason to be excited by his chances. He’s gotten 12 catches on 17 targets in the last three weeks, a usage that suggests a better chance of scoring than this price. 6 TDs this season also suggests he’s got a better chance, especially once you factor in the pass-heavy game script and the fact that the Niners will be focused on more pressing pass-game issues, namely St. Brown.

The Niners have been mediocre in coverage this year when they haven’t gotten their pass rush home. Assuming the Lions can get Goff time to throw, Reynolds will have opportunities against the relatively porous Niners secondary. As a longshot bet, he makes a lot of sense.

2023 Lions TD Scorer Stats

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